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The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)


Canada’s industry minister says she will press American aircraft manufacturer Lockheed Martin to expand its Canadian workforce as part of any deal for new fighter aircraft.

Joly says she would like to see that footprint expand as part of any procurement decision from Ottawa.

“I think… they can definitely do more research and development in the country, and we should be able to have access to much more [intellectual property] control,” Joly tells Bloomberg.

I don’t know what else LM can offer in terms of Canadian jobs.
 
I have a Bloomberg subscription. Here's a gift link. Not much new. Maybe just the AI company they are saying they will make a Canadian champion.
 
The General did a great job explaining his important AOTHR, Crossbow and Space based ISR are. Combined, they are as important or more than the F-35. And he's uniquely placed as the former DG Air and Space Force Development to understand how it feeds into ops.
 
Or, take as many of those resources as possible and dedicate them to running/attending running DP1s and PLQs? CAF’s trying to grow, and junior instructors sound like a choke point. CFLRS just posted a whole bunch of three year REO positions with relocation offered. That suggests there will be a need for anyone available to bolster training throughput to OFP.
On the positive side, people taking those REOs actually want to do the job, and arent just getting posted there.
 
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Let's throw something else into the mix



SAAB and Airbus-Gerrmany developing a 6th Gen Aircraft to compete with the French FCAS and the Anglo-Japanese GCAP.
Airbus also getting a leap into the CCA world by partnering with Kratos.
 

Jumping past the superlatives to consider the fact that the Turks seem likely to be adding unmanned missile carriers to their air defence systems. If they are in the Valkyrie/Ghostbat price bracket (less than 5 to 10 million dollars with an expectation of a couple of dozen missions each) then that would seem to be a legitimate thickening of their defences.

In the Air Defence field, especially in the old Soviet system, the technology was largely on the ground and the pilot was vectored to the target. It seems likely to me that that same system has been adapted but without the pilot.

One F35 for 100,000,000 or 10 to 20 missile trucks for the same amount.

Further to...



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Billie comments on the latest F-35 Gripen saga. Completely accurate on the TDS and emotional decisions.

This Billie Flynn?

Billie Flynn retired in 2020 from the Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company as the Senior F-35 Test Pilot. He was the global spokesman for the F-35 program, representing the largest defence program in history and was instrumental in the development of the 5th Generation fighter aircraft. He presently serves as a Global Strategic Advisor for ICE Leadership, Inc.

Why waste time with his post when I can just go to the LM page directly to get the marketing?
 
This Billie Flynn?

Why waste time with his post when I can just go to the LM page directly to get the marketing?
Ironically it isn't even Billie Flynn's opinion but this "Ted Barnes on Facebook", I'd much rather people refute what is said rather than just strictly dismissing it all off who is saying it. Especially relevant when what is being said largely is true.

Many people are acting entirely emotionally and out of spite against the current US administration, while also buying into some frankly ridiculous counterclaims coming from Saab. All of this talk about Gripen providing us sovereign control over our fighters when they have an American engine and are full of ITAR components, while also talking about the fantasy of switching to some Rolls Royce engine option which the Saab CEO himself recently has said to be uneconomical.

The Gripen E/F isn't a particularly successful aircraft on the export market, it doesn't have a good support base, Saab's claims about domestic jobs crumbles upon even amateur observation, it has very poor future relevancy prospects and it fundamentally does not solve concerns about sovereignty.
 
Ironically it isn't even Billie Flynn's opinion but this "Ted Barnes on Facebook", I'd much rather people refute what is said rather than just strictly dismissing it all off who is saying it. Especially relevant when what is being said largely is true.
Just like I don't take SAAB's claims at face value, I don't take the former chief marketer of the F-35's pushed opinions at face value either.

Many people are acting entirely emotionally and out of spite against the current US administration, while also buying into some frankly ridiculous counterclaims coming from Saab. All of this talk about Gripen providing us sovereign control over our fighters when they have an American engine and are full of ITAR components, while also talking about the fantasy of switching to some Rolls Royce engine option which the Saab CEO himself recently has said to be uneconomical.
Have you considered that it isn't "emotional", and that people accept that the RCAF would end up with a less capable aircraft, but Canada would be less dependant on a giant US defence company. One of the companies the current US administration is trying to take more control over...

We are already linked my ITAR on so many things that getting away from ITAR completely is not a realistic option, that doesn't mean we need to go full USAF and just buy what they buy.

The Gripen E/F isn't a particularly successful aircraft on the export market, it doesn't have a good support base, Saab's claims about domestic jobs crumbles upon even amateur observation, it has very poor future relevancy prospects and it fundamentally does not solve concerns about sovereignty.
I'm less worried about export at this time... The F-35 seems to be having some export struggles right now too. America already blocked one country from getting the Gripen openly, so how much have they been using heavy handed tactics to "encourage" countries to pick the F-35 over other options privately?

I'm not particularly worried about the jobs numbers, all companies lie about them. Pretending SAAB is somehow unique and evil for it is disingenuous on the part of the F-35 supporters.

To be clear, I don't think the F-35 is necessarily the wrong choice for Canada, but I think that it is politically untenable to buy the full order, and that ignoring other options is silly. If the CAF/RCAF want to keep public support behind re-arming and recapitalizing, they need to meet them part way and not just do what we have always done since the end of WWII, and spend our dollars in America.
 
To be clear, I don't think the F-35 is necessarily the wrong choice for Canada, but I think that it is politically untenable to buy the full order, and that ignoring other options is silly. If the CAF/RCAF want to keep public support behind re-arming and recapitalizing, they need to meet them part way and not just do what we have always done since the end of WWII, and spend our dollars in America.
I see it as a continuum, and my support for it depends on how far down that continuum we walk.

Trading capability for political palatability on two isolated purchases (Fighter and AEW to Saab)? Meh. I get it, but it's a rather milquetoast swap. Gimme Rafale and Phoenix instead, make it the best trade possible.

But as part of a fundamental strategic shift in how this country approaches defense, namely by strategic partnerships with nation(s) and company(ies) that we share a climate with, who due to decades of neutrality have developed incredibly self-sufficient arms industries for their size? Onshoring production, collaborating on R&D, and being the big fish in the partnership(s)? Sign me the fuck up- even if it means some capability tradeoffs.
 
Just like I don't take SAAB's claims at face value, I don't take the former chief marketer of the F-35's pushed opinions at face value either.


Have you considered that it isn't "emotional", and that people accept that the RCAF would end up with a less capable aircraft, but Canada would be less dependant on a giant US defence company. One of the companies the current US administration is trying to take more control over...

We are already linked my ITAR on so many things that getting away from ITAR completely is not a realistic option, that doesn't mean we need to go full USAF and just buy what they buy.


I'm less worried about export at this time... The F-35 seems to be having some export struggles right now too. America already blocked one country from getting the Gripen openly, so how much have they been using heavy handed tactics to "encourage" countries to pick the F-35 over other options privately?

I'm not particularly worried about the jobs numbers, all companies lie about them. Pretending SAAB is somehow unique and evil for it is disingenuous on the part of the F-35 supporters.

To be clear, I don't think the F-35 is necessarily the wrong choice for Canada, but I think that it is politically untenable to buy the full order, and that ignoring other options is silly. If the CAF/RCAF want to keep public support behind re-arming and recapitalizing, they need to meet them part way and not just do what we have always done since the end of WWII, and spend our dollars in America.
Then we need to go full Rafale.
There is no other option, if you want to avoid ITAR.
 
Have you considered that it isn't "emotional", and that people accept that the RCAF would end up with a less capable aircraft, but Canada would be less dependant on a giant US defence company. One of the companies the current US administration is trying to take more control over...

We are already linked my ITAR on so many things that getting away from ITAR completely is not a realistic option, that doesn't mean we need to go full USAF and just buy what they buy.
I disagree, I've been following this specific procurement debacle for over a decade at this point and the emotional arguments have only strengthened as time has went on, especially recently (not without some merit). Many people are frankly either misled or deluded into alternatives to the F-35, this has been true for decades, as the F-35 has been constantly followed by a cloud of misinformation.

Calling it a "less capable aircraft" doesn't adequately address how much of a gap exists between the platforms, it's not even a comparison and one of the many reasons why the Gripen has flopped on the international market, while the F-35 is thriving. People are more willing to say yes to what they view as "good enough" when they don't realize how much better the alternative is, especially when they've wound themselves up in this security blanket of nationalism.

It isn't a "less dependent" issue here, it's either one or the other. If you are willing to still accept a fighter that can be grounded and crippled by the US in many of the same ways but is worse in most ways than the alternative, what ultimately is the point besides a limp wristed and harmful political stand?

If we truly want to be sovereign, make the actual plunge and go French or whatever else. Playing this nonsensical exclusive political game between Saab and Lockheed Martin shows how fundamentally unserious we are, and how this is very likely a weak play to attempt to extract more from the Americans.

I'm less worried about export at this time... The F-35 seems to be having some export struggles right now too. America already blocked one country from getting the Gripen openly, so how much have they been using heavy handed tactics to "encourage" countries to pick the F-35 over other options privately?
Exports are very important because they show the kind of integration and alliance base you are working with, which is especially important given Canada's commitments to its allies abroad. It's also relevant given Canada is/will be involved in production of either aircraft as well.

Over 1,200 F-35's of all models exist as of the end of 2025, there was 300~ Gripen's of all models in existence as of 2023.

Australia, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States and Israel either currently do/or will operate the F-35 in the future.

Brazil, Sweden, Czech Republic (phasing out for F-35), Hungary, South Africa, Thailand and Peru either currently do/will operate the Gripen in the future.

Even if you want to write off a sizable number of the F-35 customer purchases as some kind of forced sale (questionable in my opinion), it's clear what the choice of much of NATO has been for decades given the sizable interest in the JSF program for years.

I'm not particularly worried about the jobs numbers, all companies lie about them. Pretending SAAB is somehow unique and evil for it is disingenuous on the part of the F-35 supporters.
You might not be, but other Canadians and most worryingly, our politicians seem to be very worried about jobs numbers. The Industry Minister hasn't backed down from her effective tacit support for the Gripen proposal, even troublingly when their proposal seems to be an outright lie. Defence contractors lie all the time, but Saab is being incredibly open with these claims and continues to get away with flaunting this fantasy in the public square. If Lockheed Martin came out and said that they'd bring 30,000 new jobs to Canada, I'd be similarly saying they are living in a fantasy.

To be clear, I don't think the F-35 is necessarily the wrong choice for Canada, but I think that it is politically untenable to buy the full order, and that ignoring other options is silly. If the CAF/RCAF want to keep public support behind re-arming and recapitalizing, they need to meet them part way and not just do what we have always done since the end of WWII, and spend our dollars in America.
The other options were not ignored, quite the opposite. The torturous process of procurement involving fighters over the past decade plus has clearly shown that. If anything, I'd argue we are currently ignoring other options given this fighter review is limited to only Lockheed Martin and Saab, not permitting a "fair and open" competition. If we are truly looking for options, why is the field so limited? Sounds to me like it's this way because we have certain people enthralled by the potential of Saab's bid or this is charade to pressure Lockheed Martin into giving us additional concessions.

To be frank, I do not care what the political base thinks about military procurement. Expecting the RCAF to knee cap themselves for decades to come to appease people who have no idea what they are talking about except for poorly researched opinions and their emotions is laughable. I have extreme doubts anybody is going to remember this procurement a week after the choice is ultimately made, they definitely aren't voting on it. The public has shown they don't care about the CAF and are happy to ignore them when it is convenient, I don't actually believe people care about this procurement outside of the typical performative anti-Americanism we currently see across the board.
 
Then we need to go full Rafale.
There is no other option, if you want to avoid ITAR.
Which is why going completely away from ITAR is not a realistic option. The rest of the RCAF and CAF are full of ITAR components. That said, like with most things in life; If you think you might have a problem with something, cutting back rather than quitting cold turkey is a good start.

It isn't a "less dependent" issue here, it's either one or the other. If you are willing to still accept a fighter that can be grounded and crippled by the US in many of the same ways but is worse in most ways than the alternative, what ultimately is the point besides a limp wristed and harmful political stand?
See my above reply. The CAF is full of ITAR controlled items, there is no realistic way to cut all ITAR items out of the CAF, but that doesn't mean we need to go full America. Pretending it's a binary between full America and zero ITAR is disingenuous.

Politics matter, whether or not you like it. Perhaps previous generation's lack of understanding of the importance of politics is part of why the CAF has gone though such a long drought of support.

Exports are very important because they show the kind of integration and alliance base you are working with, which is especially important given Canada's commitments to its allies abroad. It's also relevant given Canada is/will be involved in production of either aircraft as well.

Over 1,200 F-35's of all models exist as of the end of 2025, there was 300~ Gripen's of all models in existence as of 2023.
Exports matter as far as raw numbers, but if we aren't buying the same block/model of F-35 the numbers matter somewhat less. If our F-35s are Block 4 and Spain's are Block 2 or 3, how much commonality is there between the aircraft?

On the flip side, if Canada is the other major operator of Gripens, we have a greater say in how and when upgrades are made, and a greater chance of perhaps some of that R&D money coming to Canada. Isn't the UK running into issues getting some of their weapons integrated into the F-35 because the UK weapons aren't a priority for the USAF/LM?

You might not be, but other Canadians and most worryingly, our politicians seem to be very worried about jobs numbers. The Industry Minister hasn't backed down from her effective tacit support for the Gripen proposal, even troublingly when their proposal seems to be an outright lie. Defence contractors lie all the time, but Saab is being incredibly open with these claims and continues to get away with flaunting this fantasy in the public square. If Lockheed Martin came out and said that they'd bring 30,000 new jobs to Canada, I'd be similarly saying they are living in a fantasy.
Politicians will always look for job numbers to make them look good. Again, this isn't new or specific to SAAB. GM, Ford, LM, L3 Harris, etc.. all lie about job numbers to get government support too. I suspect one wouldn't have to dig too far to find a bunch of LM promises that are fake too, but let's keep pretending this is a SAAB problem.

The other options were not ignored, quite the opposite. The torturous process of procurement involving fighters over the past decade plus has clearly shown that. If anything, I'd argue we are currently ignoring other options given this fighter review is limited to only Lockheed Martin and Saab, not permitting a "fair and open" competition. If we are truly looking for options, why is the field so limited? Sounds to me like it's this way because we have certain people enthralled by the potential of Saab's bid or this is charade to pressure Lockheed Martin into giving us additional concessions.
You mean the competitions that were initially rigged in favour of the F-35, then re-run, but so messed up that two of the other competitors didn't even bother running?

I've been in enough meetings about requirements over the years to have both directly heard, and heard second-hand how people talk about rigging competitions to favour a particular outcome. With the main concern being keeping the rigging sufficiently subtle that the G&M can't easily pick it up...

I have zero doubt the F-35 is more capable than the Gripen, but I have serious doubts about the delta between the two as presented by the RCAF and the F-35 lobbyists.

To be frank, I do not care what the political base thinks about military procurement.
Have you considered that part of the reason the public doesn't care about the CAF is that the CAF doesn't care about public opinion until the public has already turned on us?

Expecting the RCAF to knee cap themselves for decades to come to appease people who have no idea what they are talking about except for poorly researched opinions and their emotions is laughable. I have extreme doubts anybody is going to remember this procurement a week after the choice is ultimately made, they definitely aren't voting on it. The public has shown they don't care about the CAF and are happy to ignore them when it is convenient, I don't actually believe people care about this procurement outside of the typical performative anti-Americanism we currently see across the board.
The RCAF is knee-capped right now because our fighters are worn out, and the public didn't see any benefit in buying new ones. There were no jobs in it for them, and no real stakes if the RCAF was forced to keep flying F-18s for the next 20 years.

Right now there is public support for defence spending, and in particular defence spending in Canada. If we build enough of a defence industry in Canada, it can become a useful voting/lobbying block to ensure that the CAF stays kitted out with new equipment when jobs are in danger of disappearing. Alternatively, we can keep doing what we have been doing for the last 30+ years and just spend south of the border, and wait for the public to not care about the CAF again...
 
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