The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[markppcli]

Next, as we saw with the Hornet, the smaller user community drives costs on the back half of life. The RCAF would have had an easier time if we were flying F-16s instead of F-18s. There's probably already more F-35s in service than the number of Super Gripens that will ever be delivered.

There's more F35 in Europe alone than Gripens.

I am not saying the F35 isn’t a better aircraft, simply that there is perks to the Gripen (mainly cost, potentially long term strategic partnership) and depending on the path Canada chooses to take, might be sufficient for our needs.

The advantage is purely giving the us the finger.

Realistically who do we need state of the art for most (all?) of what we need to do? Or will a cheaper less capable aircraft do what we need?

We need it to be able to kill other planes both in our air space and abroad. We need it to do that efficiently and at a very high win loss ratio. Thats its job. When we say "less effective or capable" let's be clear what that means in terms of people driving those jets.

The Gripen should be capable of defeating the Russian and Chinese aircraft, our most likely peer to peer adversaries. Plus if we are fighting such adversaries we will be supported by many more quality fighters from our allies as we wouldn’t be fighting them alone.

Pakistan shot Indian Raphales out if the sky with Chinese jets. I wouldn't discount them that easily.

Otherwise what will the aircraft be doing for us? A airborne bomb truck for use on some third world insurgency?

No, thats not what cas platforms do in asymmetric warfare. They provide of host of other capabilities. The ability to provide sensor relay and precision targeting is unmatched between the two.

 

[ytz]

Going from 2 AAR CC150s to 8 AAR CC330s is a first step to enhancing ranges (and not just for the fighter community).

The 330s also offload a lot more fuel. The actual increase in offload capacity is 800%.

 

[dapaterson]

The 330s also offload a lot more fuel. The actual increase in offload capacity is 800%.

To say nothing of sparing and training capacity (outside Iran).

 

[dapaterson]

The 330s also offload a lot more fuel. The actual increase in offload capacity is 800%.

But... eight airframes sounds like more than it is. Having fighters, RPAS and P8s (and possibly the frankensteined Global Express 6500 VVIP and AEW aircraft) all lining up for a drink suggests that the number of CC330 may have to grow. Which would have the knock-on effect of a slightly less uniform fleet; Airbus is now pushing the MRTT+, built on the A330-800 and not the A330-200 like the current MRTT. (Still a single type, though)

 

[ytz]

Pakistan shot Indian Raphales out if the sky with Chinese jets. I wouldn't discount them that easily.

People are making two mistakes here.

1) Massively discounting adversary capability. The Pakistani example is instructive. It's a 4th gen aircraft and export grade BVRAAM all teamed up with an older AEW aircraft. And yet they demonstrated a kill chain we would not be able to do right now. The Chinese and Russians themselves would be more capable. And as RUSI points out, the VKS is going to emerge from this war in Ukraine with a modern fleet and a lot more combat experience.

2) Ignoring the match of capability and intent. I never understand the assumption that the only threat we'll ever face in the North are unescorted Bear bombers. Cause ya know, the Russians are that stupid.

 

[dapaterson]

Cause ya know, the Russians are that stupid.

Well, they may not be. Us, on the other hand...

 

[YZT580]

People are making two mistakes here.

1) Massively discounting adversary capability. The Pakistani example is instructive. It's a 4th gen aircraft and export grade BVRAAM all teamed up with an older AEW aircraft. And yet they demonstrated a kill chain we would not be able to do right now. The Chinese and Russians themselves would be more capable. And as RUSI points out, the VKS is going to emerge from this war in Ukraine with a modern fleet and a lot more combat experience.

2) Ignoring the match of capability and intent. I never understand the assumption that the only threat we'll ever face in the North are unescorted Bear bombers. Cause ya know, the Russians are that stupid.

never ignored it but isn't it more likely that those Bears and escorts will be turning for home after launching whatever weapons they are carrying long before we are in a position to intercept? Most of the weapons they seem to be launching at Kyiv have less than a 1000 km. range and would be useless unless they are after Yellowknife and flying south until they could even hit Edmonton would make it a one way trip for most of their fleet so longer range weapons launched north of the land mass would seem to be the order of the day and our a/c would be out intercepting missiles. An F35 is perhaps the best a/c to locate them but its weapons load is too small. What secondary a/c purchase will provide the weapon's capacity to defend the north? Is the Gripen good enough or something more like the Raphael or Tornado?

 

[Maxman1]

Estimates for the Gripen per flight hour at the high end are 22k/hr (thats high end, very likely could be lower). Estimates for the F35A is 42k/hr.

So about half the cost to operate per flight hour.

And is that for the Gripen E or the Gripen C/D, because there is currently one production model Gripen E in operational service in the world, so we have zero data on real world maintenance and flight hour costs.

 

[KevinB]

never ignored it but isn't it more likely that those Bears and escorts will be turning for home after launching whatever weapons they are carrying long before we are in a position to intercept? Most of the weapons they seem to be launching at Kyiv have less than a 1000 km. range and would be useless unless they are after Yellowknife and flying south until they could even hit Edmonton would make it a one way trip for most of their fleet so longer range weapons launched north of the land mass would seem to be the order of the day and our a/c would be out intercepting missiles. An F35 is perhaps the best a/c to locate them but its weapons load is too small. What secondary a/c purchase will provide the weapon's capacity to defend the north? Is the Gripen good enough or something more like the Raphael or Tornado?

Uhm you keep making two mistakes.

1) F-35 can carry external stores, just at a massive hit to the stealth. Which of intercepting long range missiles, currently isn’t an issue.


2) The F-35 sensor aspect means it can relay data to other intercept methods - stay unobserved -

3 There is more but aim off to hockey.

 

[Rainbow1910]

I've said it countless times here but sitting back on our laurels and expecting the only threats we will be facing for the next 30-50 years to be Bears and escorting Russian 4th gen fighters is very poor planning. Even if that was the only threat we will ever face, you do not plan for an even fight, you bring as much overmatch as possible to make sure you are winning that battle. Gripen is on par or better than existing top of the line Russian 4th gen fighters however, it does not have the overmatch of stealth and the insane sensor package of the F-35A. It's also a small, single engine aircraft that needs to be saddled down with draggy fuel tanks to get the required range to operate in our North, where the F-35 is slick and all internally stored.

It's easy to sit back and laugh at the Russian's however, 5th generation and VLO aircraft are proliferating across the world at a steady rate. Russia is thought to have begun selling SU-57 to Algeria of all places.

China has the J-20 and J-35 in mass production, with flying additional prototypes around as well.

Russia has the much maligned SU-57 and the vaporware SU-75.

Turkey has the TAI TF Kaan under development.

South Korea has the KF-21 under development.

India has their own program under development.

These aircraft have already became the norm in the West, and they are proliferating elsewhere. What is stopping Russia from improving and building additional SU-57's? Developing the SU-75 into a flying and workable platform? What happens when/if the Chinese license or export their aircraft to Russia? There has been talks about Pakistan adopting Chinese 5th gen platforms. At home and abroad especially, Canada is at threat even now of development within the next 5-10 years potentially undercutting the viability of the Gripen. Once you start looking at 15, 20, 25, 30, etc years into the future, buying a souped up light fighter seems like an exceptionally poor use of our resources and funds.

Fighting a fair fight is for losers, come to win or don't come at all.