The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[Czech_pivo]

The big issue would be the different datalinks. The fighter community did have somewhat of a vision to move to MADL. Beyond that, the big issue has always been that all of the IT systems and good chunk of mission systems and software have to be CANUS certified for NORAD. These costs were enough to get Rafale and Typhoon to drop out before. There's a suspicion here that Saab is just telling us what we want to hear to get a contract.





Those numbers don't work. Two points.

1) Any dual fleet will definitely have to be larger. In part because of the transition.

2) We don't have the capacity to operate three fighter fleets simultaneously. The F-35 transition is already a huge lift for the RCAF at every level. From tech staff in Ottawa, to the training system to the infrastructure folks to security certification. Forcing the operation of three fighter fleets simultaneously and a double transition would break the RCAF. This means the transitions need to be sequenced and that means there need to be enough F-35s to retire the Hornet. That means 50-60 F-35s at least. Probably closer to the higher end.

And heck, even if this Gripen plan was announced today, zero chance they get a facility built and certified and delivering jets before 2031. By which point we'll have over 50 F-35s in service. To explain how hard this is. There's currently an effort to come up with a process to certify industrial facilities to Level III in Canada. That's right. We don't even have a way to certify a manufacturer to TS. A lot of Canadian OEMs don't even have certified SDAs. Let alone SCIFs. But now they're going to build 4.5 Gen combat jets?

The problem now is that having hyped up the Gripen to get concessions out of LockMart, there are so many America haters riled up who think the F-35 fleet should be 16. And Saab is saying 72 frames for a FAL. The government knows they need 50-60 F-35s. And they know that Gripen order if it happens won't be 70 frames. How do they break that news to their base?

So they’ve painted themselves into a nasty little corner here.

 

[GR66]

And heck, even if this Gripen plan was announced today, zero chance they get a facility built and certified and delivering jets before 2031. By which point we'll have over 50 F-35s in service. To explain how hard this is. There's currently an effort to come up with a process to certify industrial facilities to Level III in Canada. That's right. We don't even have a way to certify a manufacturer to TS. A lot of Canadian OEMs don't even have certified SDAs. Let alone SCIFs. But now they're going to build 4.5 Gen combat jets?

So, 65-88 x F-35's and Saab builds a plant to build UCAVs - or if FCAS falls apart as seems likely - a NextGen fighter collaboration between Sweden, Germany and Canada. Saab and Airbus are already talking collaboration on UCAV's and CCA's and there are feelers out between Sweden and Germany already for an FCAS replacement.

Design and building the plant would almost certainly be after the final F-35's are delivered so no three fleet issues and Canada would end up with a domestic production facility for non-ITAR airframes (uncrewed and/or crewed) while still having full interoperability with the US with the F-35's.

Sweden Pushes Ahead With Future Fighter Program

Crewed or uncrewed, or both, Sweden’s next-generation air combat program just got an important boost. Crewed or uncrewed, or both, Sweden’s next-generation air combat program just got an important boost.

www.twz.com

 

[Maxman1]

So, 65-88 x F-35's and Saab builds a plant to build UCAVs - or if FCAS falls apart as seems likely - a NextGen fighter collaboration between Sweden, Germany and Canada. Saab and Airbus are already talking collaboration on UCAV's and CCA's and there are feelers out between Sweden and Germany already for an FCAS replacement.

The government has expressed interest in GCAP, not FCAS. It's unlikely we'll get involved in FCAS.

 

[ytz]

if FCAS falls apart as seems likely - a NextGen fighter collaboration between Sweden, Germany and Canada. Saab and Airbus are already talking collaboration on UCAV's and CCA's and there are feelers out between Sweden and Germany already for an FCAS replacement.

The government has expressed interest in GCAP, not FCAS. It's unlikely we'll get involved in FCAS.

Saab couldn't build a 5th Gen jet. It's why they built the Super Gripen. They aren't in a 6th gen program. The idea that they'll be a major prime in a completely new 6th Gen program is a stretch I wouldn't want to bet the future of the RCAF on.

 

[suffolkowner]

Saab couldn't build a 5th Gen jet. It's why they built the Super Gripen. They aren't in a 6th gen program. The idea that they'll be a major prime in a completely new 6th Gen program is a stretch I wouldn't want to bet the future of the RCAF on.

which one of the euros has built a 5th gen jet?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

How many of the CF-18's are operational at any one time? I suspect that for quite sometime, the limiting factors will be secure, connected hangers for the F35, security teams, pilots and maintainers.

 

[Czech_pivo]

How many of the CF-18's are operational at any one time? I suspect that for quite sometime, the limiting factors will be secure, connected hangers for the F35, security teams, pilots and maintainers.

My question would be, are we investing any time/effort in training new pilots on the F18 or are they going straight to the F35?

 

[ytz]

which one of the euros has built a 5th gen jet?

Sure. But some of them have more IP to get them closer to the destination than the rest.

 

[ytz]

My question would be, are we investing any time/effort in training new pilots on the F18 or are they going straight to the F35?

Both. Right now only a handful of fairly skilled, mostly instructor pilots have been selected for conversion to the F-35. They need this to be able to help develop training and inform the conversion process in the future. Once we move past IOC new pilots will be pipelined to the F-35 and the CF-18 sunsets.

 

[calculus]

More propaganda from Saab:

Saab Advocates Mixed Canadian Fleet as Gripen Production Set to Scale | AIN

Targeted rate of 36 units a year dependant on increased industrial collaboration

www.ainonline.com

 

[calculus]

...and more:

Saab shares 'detailed information' on Gripen with Canada as part of 'dual fleet' pitch - Breaking Defense

Amid strained relations between the US and Canada, Saab is positioning its fighter as an alternative to American-made F-35s.

breakingdefense.com

 

[GR66]

Saab couldn't build a 5th Gen jet. It's why they built the Super Gripen. They aren't in a 6th gen program. The idea that they'll be a major prime in a completely new 6th Gen program is a stretch I wouldn't want to bet the future of the RCAF on.

Which is why I suggest going for UCAV/CCA here in Canada as Saab and Airbus are already discussing collaboration. Fighter production would only be looked at IF Sweden and Germany were to team up for a FCAS replacement.

Frankly, F-35's with UCAV would probably be a better option for the RCAF than a split fleet. Export opportunities for cheaper uncrewed systems would probably be much greater than for fighters as well.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Both. Right now only a handful of fairly skilled, mostly instructor pilots have been selected for conversion to the F-35. They need this to be able to help develop training and inform the conversion process in the future. Once we move past IOC new pilots will be pipelined to the F-35 and the CF-18 sunsets.

Trying to understand what the 'timeline' is to have someone complete their certification on the F18 vs the date when we will stop flying the F35?


Looking at an AI answer to this question based on the US Marines F/A18 training process it says,

• 6 weekly roughly for Aviation pre-flight indoctrination
• Pri flight training - appox 6months for T6B
• Advance Strike Training is about 10-12 months in T45C Goshawk
• Wings of Gold - after the advance strike training, pilots receive their wings at the 18-24 month mark
• stationed for another 6-8 months in a fleet replacement squadron
• after the 'FRS', the 'nugget' takes another 3yrs in an 'apprenticeship'

So, roughly a 3yr journey. So if that newly minted Pilot candidate on 1 March 2026 starts down the road for the F18, they should be done the process by 1 March 2029, if the process within the RCAF is similar to the US Marines F18 pilot training.

Will there be cases where an individual spends X+Y yrs in learning both the F18 and then starts immediately on the F35 and in essence is unavailable to fly for the RCAF for an extra long period of time because of this?

 

[suffolkowner]

Sure. But some of them have more IP to get them closer to the destination than the rest.

GCAP
BAE
Leonardo

FCAS
Dassault
Indra

ARROWII
SAAB
AIRBUS

 

[ytz]

Will there be cases where an individual spends X+Y yrs in learning both the F18 and then starts immediately on the F35 and in essence is unavailable to fly for the RCAF for an extra long period of time because of this?

No. At a certain point the CF18 OTU will stop running courses. About that time, new fighter pilots will go straight to F-35 conversion in the US and then eventually to the F-35 OTU we have to stood up.