The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[Altair]

If you look at the issue of Gripen v F-35, or Gripen and F-35 from the lens of what is best for Canada, I would say that is entirely different from throwing a bunch of politics into it.
Yes Politics affects some criteria - but I will say as someone living down here, since PM MC’s budget there hasn’t been any real complaining about Canada freeloading on Defense -- while many in Industry, Military, or Politics want to see the rubber meet the road on announcements - the vast majority of Americans just see positive comments being made about Canada’s Defence Spending of late.

I am clearly on Team F-35 Pure Fleet, and I would still be on Team F-35 Pure Fleet if I was still living in Canada, as I think it is the best option for the RCAF in terms of bang for the buck, and operational readiness and capability fielding.
I think Canada should look at GCAP, mainly as I wouldn’t want the F-35 fleet to end up the same way the Hornet fleet has.
I do not think FY35 is a realistic date for GCAP Initial Fielding, but regardless that would be a good date to start to look into F-35 augmentation or replacement.
If Canada takes 88 F-35, the deliveries should be finished in FY32 (based on projections, and baring replacements being acquired for loss etc), that would give the RCAF 3 years of F-35 full fleet operation to see what the baseline of a future fighter should be.

The USAF plans on flying F-35’s to FY88 at this point in time -- with FY70 being the earliest a replacement would be fielded. Given that information, one would think that Canada realistically would not really need to make a decision on a future fighter until at least FY50 (because lets face it, that will probably take 2 decades as well baring a shooting war before that).

Politics always plays a part in defense procurement.

Otherwise Chinese or Russian equipment would be considered.

But we dont buy from Russia or China because they are enemies and rivals of Canada and the west.

The problem here is the USA is hellbent on joining that list. Why should Canada want to buy kit from a nation wanting to threaten us or our allies? Why should Canada want to buy kit from a nation actively out harm our economy? Why should Canada want to buy kit from a nation that accuses us falsely of flooding their nation with drugs and illegal immigrants and then tariffs us on those false pretenses?

Canadians dont even want to buy ketchup from America, never mind fighter jets.

So separating the politics from the procurement is frankly impossible, which is why I always tried to talk about it in the canadian politics thread. If politics didnt matter, we would be talking about Chines and Russian jets. Since politics do matter, its fair to ask if America is an ally, or if they even work on that framework anymore.

 

[KevinB]

Politics always plays a part in defense procurement.

Otherwise Chinese or Russian equipment would be considered.

But we dont buy from Russia or China because they are enemies and rivals of Canada and the west.

The problem here is the USA is hellbent on joining that list. Why should Canada want to buy kit from a nation wanting to threaten us or our allies? Why should Canada want to buy kit from a nation actively out harm our economy? Why should Canada want to buy kit from a nation that accuses us falsely of flooding their nation with drugs and illegal immigrants and then tariffs us on those false pretenses?

Canadians dont even want to buy ketchup from America, never mind fighter jets.

So separating the politics from the procurement is frankly impossible, which is why I always tried to talk about it in the canadian politics thread. If politics didnt matter, we would be talking about Chines and Russian jets. Since politics do matter, its fair to ask if America is an ally, or if they even work on that framework anymore.

Honestly if you don’t think we are an Ally at this junction you have larger issues.

 

[Altair]

Honestly if you don’t think we are an Ally at this junction you have larger issues.

If you can point me to an ally treating Canada the way the USA is, I'll gladly shut up about it.

 

[QV]

If the USA was specifically targeting Canada, yeah, sure. Maybe. The USA is targetting all of NATO. Laggards or not. So take that argument and bin it.

Those days are over.

GCAP doing what the F35 used to do would be ideal.

What countries would be better defence partners than the US?

 

[Altair]

What countries would be better defence partners than the US?

The EU. Korea. Japan. Sweden. Australia if they ever wanted to get into the game.

The global defense industry doesnt start and end with the USA.

 

[Czech_pivo]

In other news......

Airbus leans towards Saab as Franco-German fighter unravels

Airbus is increasingly looking to Sweden's Saab as a preferred future partner as the collapse of a Franco-German fighter programme reshapes European defence alliances, three people familiar with the matter said.

www.reuters.com

Airbus leans towards Saab as Franco-German fighter unravels​

Airbus (AIR.PA), opens new tab is increasingly looking to Sweden's Saab as a preferred future partner as the collapse of a Franco-German fighter programme reshapes European defence alliances, three people familiar with the matter said.

But Airbus and Saab (SAABb.ST), opens new tab have been in broad exploratory talks for at least six months, buoyed by improving defence relations between Germany and Sweden, the people said.

Sweden remained independent during the last round of fighter development, building the Gripen while France produced the Rafale and Britain, Germany, Spain and Italy co-developed the Eurofighter.

For the next generation it has yet to show its hand, having initially partnered with Britain and now conducting research on a Gripen ‌successor, with political ⁠decisions due in 2030.

People familiar with the matter said Sweden has both the will and technology to team up with Airbus if requested.
The two sides have been inching closer for months.

Insiders say GCAP is constrained by a tight 2035 deadline agreed with Japan, making it difficult to offer Germany more than a junior role.

Dassault, the only European firm to have developed a fighter from scratch using domestic ⁠engines, says it is ready to do so again, though French public finances are strained.

Schoellhorn played down the prospect of going solo. "Germany has been clear on numerous occasions, also on the political side, that we ⁠continue to think European," he said.

EDIT:

German-led fighter jet consortium launches after FCAS collapse

An Airbus-led alliance of eight defence firms will launch Team Gen 6 in Berlin, a German-backed sixth-generation fighter jet project intended to replace the collapsed Franco-German-Spanish FCAS programme, AFP reports.

www.euronews.com

An Airbus-led alliance of eight defence firms will launch Team Gen 6 in Berlin, a German-backed sixth-generation fighter jet project intended to replace the collapsed Franco-German-Spanish FCAS programme, AFP reports.​

 

[Altair]

In other news......

Airbus leans towards Saab as Franco-German fighter unravels

Airbus is increasingly looking to Sweden's Saab as a preferred future partner as the collapse of a Franco-German fighter programme reshapes European defence alliances, three people familiar with the matter said.

www.reuters.com

Airbus leans towards Saab as Franco-German fighter unravels​

Airbus (AIR.PA), opens new tab is increasingly looking to Sweden's Saab as a preferred future partner as the collapse of a Franco-German fighter programme reshapes European defence alliances, three people familiar with the matter said.

But Airbus and Saab (SAABb.ST), opens new tab have been in broad exploratory talks for at least six months, buoyed by improving defence relations between Germany and Sweden, the people said.

Sweden remained independent during the last round of fighter development, building the Gripen while France produced the Rafale and Britain, Germany, Spain and Italy co-developed the Eurofighter.

For the next generation it has yet to show its hand, having initially partnered with Britain and now conducting research on a Gripen ‌successor, with political ⁠decisions due in 2030.

People familiar with the matter said Sweden has both the will and technology to team up with Airbus if requested.
The two sides have been inching closer for months.

Insiders say GCAP is constrained by a tight 2035 deadline agreed with Japan, making it difficult to offer Germany more than a junior role.

Dassault, the only European firm to have developed a fighter from scratch using domestic ⁠engines, says it is ready to do so again, though French public finances are strained.

Schoellhorn played down the prospect of going solo. "Germany has been clear on numerous occasions, also on the political side, that we ⁠continue to think European," he said.

If this is the case, please let Canada be a part of it via SAAB.

 

[QV]

The EU. Korea. Japan. Sweden. Australia if they ever wanted to get into the game.

The global defense industry doesnt start and end with the USA.

There is no scenario where any on that list surpass the benefits of a close alignment with the US.

Geography, economics, socially, culturally, military power, and national interests. By every metric, it is better with the USA.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

European military development alliances falling apart, who would have thought it possible......

 

[Altair]

There is no scenario where any on that list surpass the benefits of a close alignment with the US.

Geography, economics, socially, culturally, military power, and national interests. By every metric, it is better with the USA.

Close alignment with the USA is what is allowing them to put the screws to us.

For all the pros thats one massive con.

The USA is weaponizing other nations reliance on them and you want closer ties? What sense does that make?

 

[KevinB]

In other news......

Airbus leans towards Saab as Franco-German fighter unravels

Airbus is increasingly looking to Sweden's Saab as a preferred future partner as the collapse of a Franco-German fighter programme reshapes European defence alliances, three people familiar with the matter said.

www.reuters.com

Airbus leans towards Saab as Franco-German fighter unravels​

Airbus (AIR.PA), opens new tab is increasingly looking to Sweden's Saab as a preferred future partner as the collapse of a Franco-German fighter programme reshapes European defence alliances, three people familiar with the matter said.

But Airbus and Saab (SAABb.ST), opens new tab have been in broad exploratory talks for at least six months, buoyed by improving defence relations between Germany and Sweden, the people said.

Sweden remained independent during the last round of fighter development, building the Gripen while France produced the Rafale and Britain, Germany, Spain and Italy co-developed the Eurofighter.

For the next generation it has yet to show its hand, having initially partnered with Britain and now conducting research on a Gripen ‌successor, with political ⁠decisions due in 2030.

People familiar with the matter said Sweden has both the will and technology to team up with Airbus if requested.
The two sides have been inching closer for months.

Insiders say GCAP is constrained by a tight 2035 deadline agreed with Japan, making it difficult to offer Germany more than a junior role.

Dassault, the only European firm to have developed a fighter from scratch using domestic ⁠engines, says it is ready to do so again, though French public finances are strained.

Schoellhorn played down the prospect of going solo. "Germany has been clear on numerous occasions, also on the political side, that we ⁠continue to think European," he said.

EDIT:

German-led fighter jet consortium launches after FCAS collapse

An Airbus-led alliance of eight defence firms will launch Team Gen 6 in Berlin, a German-backed sixth-generation fighter jet project intended to replace the collapsed Franco-German-Spanish FCAS programme, AFP reports.

www.euronews.com

An Airbus-led alliance of eight defence firms will launch Team Gen 6 in Berlin, a German-backed sixth-generation fighter jet project intended to replace the collapsed Franco-German-Spanish FCAS programme, AFP reports.​

Again please point me to their Gen 5 Aircraft that they use as a starting block?

I can wait

This is the reason I think GCAP’s timeline is vastly optimistic - and they have a huge head start.

Look back to the Avro Arrow, as making a Gen 6 from scratch is basically the same sort of endeavor -- yes the cost and risk is spread out in partners, but realistically you have LocMart and Boeing way way way way way out front in terms of having Aircraft.

None of this solves Canada’s issues now.

 

[Altair]

Again please point me to their Gen 5 Aircraft that they use as a starting block?

I can wait

This is the reason I think GCAP’s timeline is vastly optimistic - and they have a huge head start.

Look back to the Avro Arrow, as making a Gen 6 from scratch is basically the same sort of endeavor -- yes the cost and risk is spread out in partners, but realistically you have LocMart and Boeing way way way way way out front in terms of having Aircraft.

None of this solves Canada’s issues now.

The now is solved. XX F35s, XX Gripens. That should fly until 2050, probably 2060.

When 6 gen launches Canada doesnt need to get the first off the line, we just need to be in line. Seeing as the F47 isnt a International Co-Development, it makes sense for Canada to explore programs that are, no matter how messy they might be.

 

[QV]

Close alignment with the USA is what is allowing them to put the screws to us.

For all the pros thats one massive con.

The USA is weaponizing other nations reliance on them and you want closer ties? What sense does that make?

There is no room for emotional reactions in managing this situation. The emotional reactions I'm referring to are the elbows up response and making public statements about new world orders, and our relationship with the US is forever changed. This will lead to more lasting damage than appropriately managing the short term annoyances would.

The US is not "putting screws" to us. This whole situation needs adults in the room, not people who are in reaction mode and trying to get in tit for tats with Trump.

 

[Altair]

There is no room for emotional reactions in managing this situation. The emotional reactions I'm referring to are the elbows up response and making public statements about new world orders, and our relationship with the US is forever changed. This will lead to more lasting damage than appropriately managing the short term annoyances would.

The US is not "putting screws" to us. This whole situation needs adults in the room, not people who are in reaction mode and trying to get in tit for tats with Trump.

Tariffs and trade wars are certainly putting the screws to us.

And we can be meek and accept it, or we can decide enough is enough.

We watched Sir Keir Starmer try to be meek and accept it, and he's one of the most unpopular leaders in the western world and will be looking for a new job come fall as Trump and America ran roughshod over him.

So that didnt work.

This reminds me of a situation i overheard with my wife and her friend, who was with an abusive guy. The friend kept saying she couldnt leave, because the guy paid for everything. My wife, and im proud of her, said, "if he can feed you he can starve you."

We are in a situation where our reliance on the USA feeds us. It also gives leverage to the USA to try to starve us. We should not accept that. Even if we are not getting the top of the line kit, sovereignty and national interests take precedent.

Thankfully, with Carney at the helm, we seem to be doing a decent job positioning ourselves to be able to feed ourselves going forward.

 

[OldSolduer]

Actually - we Canada - put the screws to ourselves.

 

[PuckChaser]

The now is solved. XX F35s, XX Gripens. That should fly until 2050, probably 2060.

Predecisional. Nothing is solved yet and to suggest otherwise based on internet rumour is absolutely disingenuous.

 

[Altair]

Predecisional. Nothing is solved yet and to suggest otherwise based on internet rumour is absolutely disingenuous.

I meant it more on basis that a 6 gen program, whether european or american isnt helping canada now.

As for XX F35s and XX Gripens, that is demonstably true.

It could be 88 F35s and 00 gripens, or 30 F35s and 99 gripens.

Unless we get over a hundred Gripens i suppose.

But my point is the solution right now is a certain amount of one, or both of those airframes, not a 6 gen program.

 

[PuckChaser]

As for XX F35s and XX Gripens, that is demonstably true.

It could be 88 F35s and 00 gripens, or 30 F35s and 99 gripens.

That's a trash cop out. There is no government press release stating what we're buying so even including the Gripen in there is misinformation and partisan wishful thinking. The only thing that is factually true is we are buying the minimum number of F35s that were previously committed in the initial order. Any other number, or suggest of another aircraft is peddling in r/politics RUMINT.

 

[Altair]

Actually - we Canada - put the screws to ourselves.

No country does everything perfect all the time.

The UK shot themselves in the foot leaving the EU.

Germany bet on the wrong horse when they went all in on cheap russian energy.

France... does french things.

America decided that they didnt need allies anymore and wanted to cozy up to dictatorships.

But just because a country gets things wrong, does not mean other nations dont put the screws to them.

So yeah, our dependance on the USA and not doing what we needed to do at home was a own goal, that does not excuse the american treatment of us or our allies, tariffs, threats, insults, pressure tactics.

 

[KevinB]

Actually - we Canada - put the screws to ourselves.

Well I would say that you oiled the screws to make it easy to turn.

Hypothetically if Canada had been at 2% in the 70’s to now (yes lets ignore recessions etc as this is just a hypothetical).
88 F-35 already flying, CF-18 donated to Ukraine 3 years ago
P-8 already flying
15 River class in the water
3-5 JSS in the water
12 Patrol Subs
HIMARS and other Army equipment fielded

Canada probably wouldn’t have been an easy target to push, as there wouldn’t have been any really “Gotcha” to do so.