The Sandbox and Areas Reports Thread April 2009

[MarkOttawa]

ARTICLES FOUND APRIL 26

Taliban retains grip on Pakistan district
Many have left Buner, but many are still patrolling the streets and broadcasting their messages despite warnings from the government.
LA Times, April 26
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-pakistan-buner-scene26-2009apr26,0,1895987.story

Although recent headlines suggest that the Taliban has left Buner district, only 60 miles from the Pakistani capital, the facts Saturday told another story.

Throughout the day, militants in black turbans with cloths over their faces could be seen brandishing automatic weapons in vehicles around the bazaars and on the main roads. Their stereos blared religious songs, and their presence was particularly evident at strategic locations such as key intersections...

In Pakistan, Guile Helps Taliban Gain
NY Times, April 25
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/world/asia/26buner.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper

Initially, Buner was a hard place for the Taliban to crack. When they attacked a police station in the valley district last year, the resistance was fearless. Local people picked up rifles, pistols and daggers, hunted down the militants and killed six of them.

But it was not to last. In short order this past week the Taliban captured Buner, a strategically vital district just 60 miles northwest of the capital, Islamabad. The militants flooded in by the hundreds, startling Pakistani and American officials with the speed of their advance.

The lesson of Buner, local politicians and residents say, is that the dynamic of the Taliban insurgency, as methodical and slow-building as it has been, can change suddenly, and the tactics used by the Taliban can be replicated elsewhere.

The Taliban took over Buner through both force and guile — awakening sleeping sympathizers, leveraging political allies, pretending at peace talks and then crushing what was left of their opponents, according to the politicians and the residents interviewed.

Though some of the militants have since pulled back, they still command the high points of Buner and have fanned out to districts even closer to the capital.

That Buner fell should be no surprise, local people say. Last fall, the inspector general of police in North-West Frontier Province, Malik Naveed Khan, complained that his officers were being attacked and killed by the hundreds.

Mr. Khan was so desperate — and had been so thoroughly abandoned by the military and the government — that he was relying on citizen posses like the one that stood up to the Taliban last August.

Today, the hopes that those civilian militias inspired are gone, brushed away by the realization that Pakistanis can do little to stem the Taliban advance if their government and military will not help them.

The people of Buner got nothing for their bravery. In December, the Taliban retaliated for the brazenness of the resistance in the district, sending a suicide bomber to disrupt voting during a by-election. More than 30 people were killed and scores were wounded...

With their success in Buner, the Taliban felt flush with success and increasingly confident that they could repeat the template, residents and analysts said. In the main prize, the richest and most populous province, Punjab, in eastern Pakistan, the Taliban are relying on the sleeper cells of other militant groups, including the many fighters who had been trained by the Pakistani military for combat in Kashmir, and now felt abandoned by the state, they said.

It would not be difficult for the Taliban to seize Peshawar, the capital of North-West Frontier Province, by shutting down the airport and blocking the two main thoroughfares from Islamabad, a Western official with long experience in the province said.

At midweek, a convoy of heavily armed Taliban vehicles was seen barreling along the four-lane motorway between Islamabad and Peshawar, according to Mr. Sherpao, the former minister of the interior.

Across North-West Frontier Province, the Taliban are rapidly consolidating power by activating cells that consisted of a potent mix of jihadist groups, he said.

In some places, the Taliban have entered mosques saying they had come only to preach, but in fact the strategy is to spread fear that pushes people into submission and demoralizes the police, he said.

Everywhere, they have preyed on the miseries of the poor, saying that Islamic courts would settle their complaints against the rich. “Every district is falling into their lap,” Mr. Sherpao said.

My Country, Caving to the Taliban
Washington Post, April 26, by Mohammed Hanif
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/24/AR2009042402315.html?sid=ST2009042403173

...
As a Taliban insurgency gains strength in Pakistan, my country seems to be preparing to surrender. In areas where the Taliban formally hold sway, such as Swat, people have bowed to their guns. And in the heartland, in Punjab and other regions, there is a disquieting acceptance of the inevitability of the Taliban's rise to power.

Over the past two years, Pakistani civil society has driven a military dictator from power and managed to force an elected government to restore our top judges to the bench. But when it comes to the Taliban, it seems incapable of speaking with one voice.

There is little sense of an impending crisis, just the blithe belief that the Taliban are not as bad as they seem, and that in any case, Pakistan's fractious government and security services are no match for these men with beards and guns. I hear vague comparisons with the days before the Iranian revolution; the only problem is that we don't seem to have a Khomeini, at least not yet. And we do have nuclear bombs.

In my hometown in Punjab, a businessman friend was inspired by the news from Swat. "If two hundred Taliban take over our town, then we can all start making our own decisions. Who needs this corrupt system anyway?" My friend is a typical middle-class conservative Pakistani, and people in cities across the country share his excitement. I tried to reason with him: "You drop your daughters off at school every morning, you always have music on in your car. That would be unthinkable if they take over." He hesitated and then rolled out the explanation that most urban Pakistanis offer.

"What they are doing in Swat is their Pashtun culture," he said, speaking of the ethnic group that dominates western Pakistan. "Islam says education is compulsory for every man and woman. And we Punjabis don't have their culture."

I have confronted the same naive assertion on TV talk shows and in Urdu newspapers: The Taliban ideology is sound; it's their methods that need to be modified. Somehow people hope that when the Islamists march into Lahore or Islamabad, they'll suddenly realize that Islam is a religion of peace, that music is good and that girls should be allowed to go to school.

People who have experienced Taliban rule have no such illusions...

Mohammed Hanif, a special correspondent for the BBC's Urdu service, is the author of the novel, "A Case of Exploding Mangoes."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/15/books/review/Macfarlane-t.html

Disarray on Pakistan Taleban threat
The Pakistani government and army seem incapable or unwilling to tackle the Taleban threat in the north-west, argues guest columnist Ahmed Rashid.
BBC, April 24
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8016485.stm

Unprecedented political and military disarray in Pakistan and a growing public feeling of helplessness is helping fuel the rapid expansion of the Taleban across northern Pakistan, bringing them closer to paralysing state institutions in their bid to seize total power.

Even though most Pakistanis agree that the Pakistani Taleban and their extremist allies now pose the biggest threat to the Pakistani state since its creation, both the army and the government appear to be in denial of reality and the facts.

Within weeks of concluding a deal with the government on the imposition of Islamic law in the strategically located Swat valley, the Taleban have already broken the agreement by refusing to disarm, taken control of the region's administration, police and education while spilling out into adjacent valleys.

'No need to worry'

Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani persuaded parliament to pass the Sharia agreement into law, insisting the Taleban pose no threat to the state. Threats by the Taleban to abrogate the agreement forced President Asif Ali Zardari to hurriedly sign the bill, even though he had tried delaying tactics...

The Taleban have now infiltrated western and southern Punjab province with the help of Punjabi extremist groups, the second largest city of Lahore and the southern port city of Karachi.

Even more surprising has been the attitude of the army, which has declined all international and local pressure to curb the spread of the Taleban.

The army's only military response was when it bombed the tribal areas after 25 of its soldiers were killed in a suicide bomb attack near Hangu in North West Frontier Province on 18 April.

That dismayed many Pakistanis because it showed the army was willing to only attack the Taleban when its own soldiers had suffered.

Groups of militias who have resisted the Taleban in Swat and other places were left to fight on their own without the military's support for weeks on end.

With the Taleban taking control of Buner district - although they have now said they will withdraw - and Dir as well as moving north to take over the Karakoram Highway that links Pakistan to China, there is the fear that Pakistan will soon reach a tipping point.

With the Taleban having opened so many fronts, it will soon be impossible for the army to respond to the multiple threats it faces.

US and Nato

The army's rationale for doing nothing appears deeply irrational to many Pakistanis.

The army still insists that India remains the major threat, so 80% of its forces are still aligned on the Indian border instead of defending the country against Taleban expansion...

The Pakistani Taleban, even while continuing their penetration of central Pakistan, are also mobilising fresh recruits from all over the country to go help their Afghan Taleban brothers resist the newly arriving Western troops.

For Pakistanis and the international community the refusal of either the government or the army to respond to its greatest threat since the country split apart with the creation of Bangladesh in 1971 reflects a chronic failure of leadership, will and commitment to the people of Pakistan.

Pakistan must shore up security on border with Afghanistan:defence minister
CP, April 25
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jh-gXCMdqM4qYldgw8c3Q6oPkMsg

EDMONTON — The mission in Afghanistan could "rise or fall," depending on whether the government of Pakistan can stem the flow of insurgents and weapons along its borders, Canada's defence minister said Saturday.

Speaking at a symposium on the war in Afghanistan, Peter MacKay suggested Pakistan's border with Afghanistan is like an imaginary line drawn on a map, and that lax security there is a threat to Canadian soldiers.

"We know that Afghanistan at one time was the incubator for terrorism and now it's Pakistan," he said.

Once inside Afghanistan, Taliban and al Qaida groups are able to "exponentially" influence what's going on in that country, MacKay said.

Demanding that Pakistan improve its border security is something that Canada and other international forces in Afghanistan are pressing for, he said...

Mark
Ottawa

 

[GAP]

Articles found April 28, 2009

Terror Threat Forces Afghanistan to Cancel Holiday Ceremonies
By Pamela Constable Washington Post Foreign Service Tuesday, April 28, 2009 11:11 AM
Article Link

KABUL, April 28 -- The streets of the Afghan capital were deserted Tuesday in a tense, silent observance of an annual holiday that evokes an era of patriotic heroism for some Afghans and a period of brutal, devastating civil war for others.

For the first time in 16 years, there was no military parade through city streets and no cheering throngs of retired mujaheddin donning pie-shaped pakul hats and faded combat jackets in memory of their triumphant guerrilla fight against Soviet occupation forces during the 1980s.

The national stadium and mosque were prepared for the occasion with multi-colored banners and posters of the Afghan holy war's fallen heroes, but the public ceremony was abruptly canceled in favor of a small private remembrance held inside the heavily guarded presidential compound.

Although the government said it changed plans because it preferred to use the parade funds to help victims of a recent earthquake, it was widely assumed that officials were concerned about the possibility of a terrorist attack. The area around the empty stadium was patrolled by hundreds of police and NATO troops.

Last year's ceremony erupted in mayhem when heavily armed attackers, hiding on a nearby rooftop, opened fire on the reviewing stand where President Hamid Karzai and other dignitaries were singing the national anthem. One member of parliament and two other people were killed, and Karzai was hurried to safety.
More on link

SAS to increase in size to counter Taliban in Afghanistan
Special forces are to be increased in order to meet the growing demands of the conflict in Afghanistan, John Hutton, the Defence Secretary, has said.
By Thomas Harding, Defence Correspondent Last Updated: 5:20PM BST 28 Apr 2009
Article Link

But Mr Hutton told the defence select committee that they would not compromise with "quantity over quality" in getting more recruits into the SAS and other elite regiments.

Mr Hutton also did not rule out an increase in the size of the Army in order to create a bigger pool of recruits for special forces.

With the Taliban insurgency increasing in Helmand, defence planners have opted to spread the roles of specialist troops operating covertly on the ground.

In addition to targeting Taliban leaders they will use "soft power" in expanded roles in which they will address medical and other needs of the population in remote locations.

Asked about an increase in the size of special forces Mr Hutton said: "I don't think we should compromise on quality as we look to do this. These are the sort of issues that we have to make decisions on in the future."
More on link

Britain to send more troops to Afghanistan
Britain is preparing to send an extra 1,700 soldiers to fight the Taliban in Afghanistan, the head of the Army has indicated.
By Matthew Moore Last Updated: 10:47AM GMT 27 Mar 2009
Article Link

The troops from 12 Mechanised Brigade will help support the US-led surge in the country to be announced by President Barack Obama today.

General Sir Richard Dannatt, the Chief of the General Staff, yesterday said that a portion of the 4,000-strong brigade – which had previously been training for deployment in Iraq – had now been "earmarked for Afghanistan".

In an interview with The Times he said that the instability of the country could only be addressed "by having more boots on the ground", but Britain could not spare an entire brigade.

"If we were to send another 4,000... there would be a risk of replicating the pressures on the Army that we are trying to avoid," he said.
More on link

Pakistan extremism troubling to Mullen
Published: April 27, 2009 at 1:40 PM
Article Link

WASHINGTON, April 27 (UPI) -- Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, is concerned with the escalating extremism threat in Pakistan, his spokesman says.

Mullen spokesman Capt. John Kirby said the Joint Chiefs chairman is particularly concerned with militant movement in Pakistan's Swat valley despite the presence of a peace treaty in the region, CNN reported Monday.

Kirby credited Mullen's early April visit to Pakistan with Richard Holbrooke, U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, for the chairman's increased interest in the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan. The Islamabad visit by Mullen marked his second Pakistan visit in three weeks.

The Mullen spokesman also told CNN the U.S. military feels confident Pakistan's nuclear weapons will not fall into militant hands, despite a claim from an unidentified senior U.S. military official that parts of northwest Pakistan appear to have fallen under militant control.
More on link

SPINNING JOBS
Investors shun a once-thriving mill, the largest yarn and fabrics factory in Afghanistan due to poor security
By Brian Hutchinson, National PostApril 27, 2009
Article Link

KANDAHAR CITY, Afghanistan — Muhammad Mohsin returns for duty each morning to Kandahar Textile Mill, the largest yarn and fabrics factory in Afghanistan. He walks into his office, sits down at his desk, and waits for something — anything — to happen.

Two years ago, the mill was a going concern, one of this battle-exhausted city's biggest civilian employers with 500 workers and the potential for 5,500 more. Then the lights went out, literally overnight.

The machinery stopped.

The mill's owner, the Afghanistan government, put the entire 37-hectare site and all of its spinning, weaving and dying equipment on the auction block, part of a nation-wide industrial privatization scheme.

There have been no takers, which isn't surprising, since security around Kandahar is woeful. Insurgents and criminals run at large, murdering local civilians, Afghan troops and police officers, and attacking NATO soldiers.

"Who would want to buy the mill and bring in foreign (staff) to Kandahar with all the violence going on around us?" asks Mohsin, stabbing out a cigarette and leaning back in his office chair. "We've had people come to look, from the U.S., from Germany, from Japan, but they aren't potential purchasers. They come from aid agencies. They come once and then we never see them again."
More on link

No evidence of abuse to Afghan prisoners: military complaints commission
Last Updated: Monday, April 27, 2009 | 12:47 PM ET CBC News
Article Link

Three Afghan prisoners were not abused while in custody of Canadian soldiers in 2006, the civilian-run agency that probes military complaints has concluded.

Peter A. Tinsley, chair of the Military Police Complaints Commission (MPCC), on Monday released his findings into a complaint launched by an Ottawa law professor two years ago.

Dr. Amir Attaran alleged three Afghan prisoners were abused while in the custody of Canadian military police near Kandahar.

However, the commission said its probe, which reviewed 5,500 documents and interviewed 34 people, found no evidence of abuse.

"The commission found that the MPs treated the detainees humanely. There was no evidence of anything inappropriate towards the detainees during their time in the custody of MPs at [Kandahar Air Field]," the final report concluded.

Detainees received "timely and appropriate medical attention" when they arrived at the military base, said the report, adding it found no evidence of a cover-up.

The report did criticize the military police for failing to further investigate the cause of head injuries to one of the detainees, which they are required to do by the Canadian Forces Provost Marshal (CFPM), who sets out military rules and policies.

The report says there is a "surprising lack of awareness" among military police of their duties and responsibilities when it comes to injured detainees.

It recommends further study into the "status and role" of the military police to develop a more complete command and control structure.

The CFPM has accepted the report's recommendations, says the report.

Injuries to faces, heads
Attaran, a law professor at the University of Ottawa, based his allegations on Department of National Defence documents obtained under the Access to Information Act.

Attaran said the three documents were handwritten reports from Canadian military police in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar.
More on link

Van Doos commander has a message for Canadians: the threat is real
Article Link

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan — The commander of the Royal 22e Regiment in Afghanistan says Canadians need to be reminded of why their soldiers are fighting in the war-torn country.

"People shouldn't think that what's happening in Afghanistan can't affect them in some way," Lt.-Col. Jocelyn Paul recently told The Canadian Press.

A Canadian Press-Harris Decima poll in early April suggested that only 40 per cent of Canadians supported the presence of Canadian troops in Afghanistan. Of the 1,000 people polled, 55 per cent opposed the mission. In Quebec, home to the Royal 22e Regiment, 71 per cent opposed the mission.

"It's a bit naive to think that we're safe," Paul said. "Thinking that North America is some kind of an island on the other side of the ocean and that whatever goes on in the rest of the world won't come to us is an excessively naive vision of the world.

"Somehow, I have the impression that we have very quickly forgotten that the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks happened in New York state, which is a neighbour (of Quebec)," said Paul, who will lead the troops of the 2nd Battalion tactical group for the next six months.

"We've forgotten that Canadians lost their lives in these attacks. Canadians were among the victims in Mumbai (India) in December."

When asked how to better communicate the value of the Canadian mission, he referred to globalization, which he says affects not only goods and services but ideas as well.
More on link

 

[MarkOttawa]

ARTICLES FOUND APRIL 29

Expect more Afghanistan deaths says Kevin Rudd as force boosted to 1550
THE federal Government will boost troop levels in the Afghan conflict from 1100 to 1550 soldiers in a war Kevin Rudd acknowledges is getting more unpopular with Australians and will result in more combat deaths.
The Australian, April 30
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25406863-5013871,00.html

Announcing the modest increase yesterday, the Prime Minister said the main focus of Australia's military effort in southern Oruzgan would be training Afghan security forces and not combat operations.

A sharper diplomatic focus would be provided by the appointment of career diplomat and former defence chief Ric Smith as Australia's new special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan mimicking similar diplomatic moves by the US and Britain.

Canberra would also increase its civil aid program, including the dispatch of an extra 10 Australian Federal Police to help train their Afghan counterparts.

Mr Rudd made the statement flanked by Chief of the Defence Force Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston, Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon, Foreign Minister Stephen Smith and National Security Adviser Duncan Lewis.

Mr Rudd pointedly did not commit any extra combat troops to a war he admitted was becoming increasingly unpopular with ordinary Australians [emphasis added].

More Diggers would die in the conflict, he warned. "I am acutely conscious of the fact that I am placing more Australians in harm's way. I fear that more Australians will lose their lives in the fight that lies ahead."..

The new plan sees a 120-strong infantry company deployed for eight months to help bolster provincial security in the lead-up to August elections...

Increase in troop numbers will not satisfy defence chiefs
Despite today's announcement that the UK is sending 700 more troops to Afghanistan, chiefs of staff believe British forces will still be spread too thinly on the ground in Helmand
The Guardian, April 29
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/apr/29/uk-troops-in-afghanistan

Gordon Brown confirmed today what he announced at the recent Nato summit – that Britain will send 700 extra troops to southern Afghanistan for a limited period covering the presidential elections in August. The army will also send an extra 200 bomb disposal experts, increasing Britain's long-term commitment to 8,300 troops.

What he did not tell MPs is that he has seen off pressure from senior military advisers to send thousands more troops to Helmand province in southern Afghanistan.

The chiefs of staff believe a significant increase of at least 2,000 extra troops is needed to provide better security for the British forces there. This despite the imminent arrival of US reinforcements – which will mean there be almost as many American troops in Helmand as British – and the mantra of both defence chiefs and ministers that the battle against the Taliban and other insurgents cannot be won by military force alone...

Poppies a Target in Fight Against Taliban
NY Times, April 28
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/29/world/asia/29afghan.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper

ZANGABAD, Afghanistan — American commanders are planning to cut off the Taliban’s main source of money, the country’s multimillion-dollar opium crop, by pouring thousands of troops into the three provinces that bankroll much of the group’s operations.

The plan to send 20,000 Marines and soldiers into Helmand, Kandahar and Zabul Provinces this summer promises weeks and perhaps months of heavy fighting, since American officers expect the Taliban to vigorously defend what makes up the economic engine for the insurgency. The additional troops, the centerpiece of President Obama’s effort to reverse the course of the seven-year war, will roughly double the number already in southern Afghanistan. The troops already fighting there are universally seen as overwhelmed. In many cases, the Americans will be pushing into areas where few or no troops have been before...

Only 10 minutes inside the tiny village of Zangabad, 20 miles southwest of Kandahar [emphasis added], a platoon of American soldiers stepped into a poppy field in full bloom on Monday. Taliban fighters opened fire from three sides.

“From the north!” one of the soldiers yelled, spinning and firing.

“West!” another screamed, turning and firing, too.

An hour passed and a thousand bullets whipped through the air. Ammunition was running low. The Taliban were circling.

Then the gunships arrived, swooping in, their bullet casings showering the ground beneath them, their rockets streaking and destroying. Behind a barrage of artillery, the soldiers shot their way out of Zangabad and moved into the cover of the vineyards.

“When are you going to drop the bomb?” Capt. Chris Brawley said into his radio over the clatter of machine-gun fire. “I’m in a grape field.”

The bomb came, and after a time the shooting stopped.

The firefight offered a preview of the Americans’ summer in southern Afghanistan. By all accounts, it is going to be bloody.

Like the guerrillas they are, Taliban fighters often fade away when confronted by a conventional army. But in Afghanistan, as they did in Zangabad, the Taliban will probably stand and fight...

Many of the new American soldiers will fan out along southern Afghanistan’s largely unguarded 550-mile-long border with Pakistan [emphasis added]. Among them will be soldiers deployed in the Stryker, a relatively quick, nimble armored vehicle that can roam across the vast areas that span the frontier.

All of the new troops are supposed to be in place by Aug. 20 [emphasis added], in order to provide security for Afghanistan’s presidential election...

Taliban Advance in Pakistan Prompts Shift by U.S.
Washington Post, April 29
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/28/AR2009042803795.html

The Pakistani government's inability to stem Taliban advances has forced the Obama administration to recalibrate its Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy a month after unveiling it.

What was planned as a step-by-step process of greater military and economic engagement with Pakistan -- as immediate attention focused on Afghanistan -- has been rapidly overtaken by the worsening situation on the ground. Nearly nonstop discussions over the past two days included a White House meeting Monday between Obama and senior national security officials and a full National Security Council session on Pakistan yesterday.

A tripartite summit Obama will host here next week with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and Afghan President Hamid Karzai will center heavily on the Pakistan problem rather than the balance originally intended, officials said.

New consideration is being given to a long-dormant proposal to allow U.S. counterinsurgency training for Pakistani troops somewhere outside the country, circumventing Pakistan's refusal to allow American "boots on the ground" there. "The issue now is how do you do that, where do you do it, and what money do we have to do it with?" said a senior administration official who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity yesterday [see below]...

U.S. training of Pakistan army to grow
Fearing Islamabad is ill equipped to battle militants, Washington aims to bolster the nation's anti-insurgency efforts.
LA Times, April 29
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-us-pakistan29-2009apr29,0,3805869.story

The Pakistani government has agreed to allow the U.S. a greater role in training its military, part of an accord that will also send counterinsurgency equipment to help Islamabad step up its offensive against militants.

Washington has been watching with growing alarm as Taliban forces have made military gains in Pakistan and U.S. officials have stepped up pressure on Islamabad to do more.

Although the Pakistani military launched an air attack against the Taliban on Tuesday, senior U.S. Defense officials remain deeply worried about Islamabad's ability to beat back the militant advance.

Long shaped by the threat of war with India, the Pakistani military is armed mostly with heavy weaponry and lacks some of the equipment useful in fighting an insurgency. And after months of fighting, the forces that have been hunting militants are exhausted.

"You have a Pakistani military that is battle weary," a senior U.S. Defense official said. "Their equipment is aged and not effective for the fight they are in."..

The Pakistani operation included using heavy artillery, helicopters and fighter jets to strike Taliban positions in the mountains beyond Islamabad. But U.S. officials fear that those tactics will be ineffective or could backfire by inflicting civilian casualties. The U.S. military would like to see Pakistan's military move in light infantry or commando units [emphasis added].

Over the long term, the U.S. military believes training the Pakistanis for that kind of combat is critical for countering the Taliban threat.

But so far Pakistan has only allowed in about 70 U.S. special operations trainers, an effort the American military has long been anxious to expand

The new agreement would have the U.S. military train Pakistani officers outside Pakistan [emphasis added]. The Pentagon has offered to train the Pakistanis in the U.S., but a senior Obama administration official said the location of the additional training had not been finalized.

"The issue now is, how do you do it? Where do you do it?" the senior administration official said. "We are responding to the Pakistani military's request."

Until now the U.S. has focused on creating commando forces that can conduct raids and counterinsurgency operations effectively...

Pakistan wrests control of town from Taliban
But militants have taken over a police station and dozens of officers are hostage. The military actions are an effort to push the Taliban back into its base in the Swat Valley.
LA Times, April 30
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-pakistan-fighting30-2009apr30,0,6695106.story

Pakistani commandos dropped from helicopters today into an area behind Taliban lines some 80 miles from Islamabad, the capital, and regained control of a key town, the army said. But authorities faced a fresh challenge after militants seized a police station, holding dozens of officers hostage.

Helicopters dropped troops before 8 a.m. near Daggar, the main town in the Buner district, the army said. The area has seen fighting between the military and Taliban forces for several days [more here].

The army said it has killed at least 50 militants in Buner during the last two days of fighting but estimates that 500 fighters remain. The offensive may last another week, the military added, given that troops are running into stiff resistance in mountainous areas.

"We assure the nation that armed forces have the capability to ward off any kind of threat," military spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas told reporters at a briefing in the city of Rawalpindi.

In other developments today, officials here say a suspected U.S. missile strike killed five people in Pakistani territory along the Afghan border. The unmanned U.S. missile strikes, or drones, are extremely unpopular in Pakistan, drawing criticism that the nation's sovereignty is being violated...

The Taliban also issued an order to journalists this week to "shun propaganda." Analysts said the statement has a tone of desperation as the militants have watched their once-favorable domestic support fall sharply since they expanded beyond Swat.

"The mood in Pakistan has changed among the middle class and the talk show hosts [emphasis added] , where before it was generally supportive of the Taliban," said Hilaly, the analyst. This veiled threat pressing for favorable coverage "doesn't come from strength," he added, "it comes from weakness."

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

ARTICLES FOUND APRIL 30

Mentors in Afghanistan
Marines lead by example
Washington Times, April 30
http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/apr/30/mentors-in-afghanistan/

President Obama recently announced his new strategy for stabilizing Afghanistan, the centerpiece of which is sending additional troops to fight the Taliban and train the Afghan forces. Yet a successful strategy has been in place in Afghanistan for more than a year - it is Muscular Mentoring, and it has been practiced by the Marines.

Last year, Marine Col. Jeffrey Haynes commanded Embedded Training Team (ETT) 3-5, a part of the Regional Corps Advisory Command-Central (RCAC-C) [more here, with photos].
http://www.mca-marines.org/leatherneck/mar09-afghanistan-nusbaumer.asp
Based east of Kabul, ETT 3-5 was drawn primarily from 3rd Marine Division's III Marine Expeditionary Force from Okinawa along with Army, Navy and Air Force personnel and individuals of the Montana, Utah and New York National Guard. They arrived in February 2008 with a mission to "mentor the 201st Corps of the Afghan National Army (ANA) by providing military advice and training guidance" to its officers and staff noncommissioned officers.

The 201st Corps is responsible for 11 provinces in the east, northeast and center of the country, including Kabul. This is a key part of the country; it is where the fertile river valleys that supply much of Afghanistan's food and produce are located. Hence, support from the locals is of paramount importance to success in Afghanistan. "The Afghan people need to see the ANA and their government are protecting and developing the river valleys," Col. Haynes said, "not the U.S. or NATO. When the locals see that the ANA can protect them, they'll be more inclined to believe in their government."

To accomplish this, Col. Haynes and his Marines and soldiers took to the field with the ANA. NATO forces can "train" from a classroom, but it was "mentoring" when ETT 3-5 went out in the field with their Afghan counterparts. Virtually every Marine and soldier above the rank of sergeant spent several hours a day mentoring; Col. Haynes mentored the 201st Corps commander, Brig. Gen. Mohammed Wardak, while his executive officer mentored Gen. Wardak's executive officer. The key is to lead by example and not by lecturing. This is how the skills necessary for successful soldiering get transmitted.

"The 201st Corps is very good," Col. Haynes said. "When the Taliban attacked the prison in Kandahar last summer, they spearheaded the ANA effort into Anghardab and recaptured that strategic valley. [The ANA] handled their own logistics and their own intelligence."

Col. Haynes continued the policy of assigning small groups of Marines and soldiers to the remote forward operating bases and combat outposts in the eastern provinces [emphasis added]. The energy and professionalism of the Americans rubbed off on the 201st Corps troops stationed with them.

"The Afghan army is tailor-made for mentoring by the Marines," said Marine Sgt. Maj. Patrick Dougherty of ETT 3-5. "They respect strength and strong leadership, and they come from a society built on the cohesion of small groups - all of which makes the Marine Corps the most appropriate service for training them."

A recent Marine-ANA-French [emphasis added] operation demonstrated that the 201st Corps learned its lessons well. In Operation Nan-e-Shab Berun, coalition and ANA forces cleared the Alah Say Valley of insurgents and then provided security and stability for the locals when they built and occupied two new combat outposts. The insurgents then conceded the valley because the ANA is now stationed there permanently. Success came with casualties: One French and four ANA soldiers were killed; also, 37 opponents were killed in action [more on the French fatality and the operation here, with video--note the air support].
http://www.france24.com/en/20090315-french-soldier-killed-insurgent-rocket-attack-afghanistan

A key element of Mr. Obama's policy in Afghanistan is demonstrating that cooperation with America brings security, jobs and a future, whereas the Taliban and al Qaeda bring only death. This is the decision Sheik Sattar Abu Risha made in 2006 when he persuaded the Iraqi Sunnis to work with the Marines and drive the insurgents out of Anbar province; the Marines and the Afghans' 201st Corps can do the same in Afghanistan.

Getting the Afghan army and police trained and motivated will be at the heart of Afghanistan's ability to rebuild itself. The country is the world's third-poorest and has a 76 percent illiteracy rate and a weak central government (often lambasted for its incompetence and corruption and for failing to stop a drug trade that supplies 90 percent of the world's opium). There is no purely military solution; the answers and effort to succeed permanently must come from the Afghans themselves.

'The German Military is in Afghanistan to Secure the Country'
Spiegel Online, April 30
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,622191,00.html#ref=nlint

In the wake of Wednesday's Taliban attack on German forces, commentators are losing patience with Berlin's unwillingness to commit more soldiers to Afghanistan. The Taliban's advance in Pakistan also has them worried.

A few hours after German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier landed in Kabul on Wednesday [April 29] for a surprise visit, Taliban militants in northern Afghanistan killed one German soldier and wounded nine others in two separate attacks. Steinmeier is in the Afghan capital for two days to talk with President Hamid Karzai and Afghan Foreign Minister Rangin Dadfar Spanta, mainly about Germany's controversial involvement in the NATO mission to quell the Taliban.

The first attack, using machine guns and rocket launchers, killed one soldier and wounded four others in a firefight with a German convoy near Kunduz, about 300 kilometers (186 miles) north of Kabul. A few hours later a suicide bomber lightly injured five soldiers elsewhere in the Kunduz province, where the Germans maintain a base.

The first and fatal attack occurred around 7pm on Wednesday evening. Half an hour later a Taliban spokesman said it was meant to disrupt Steinmeier's visit. The spokesman boasted about the attack to SPIEGEL ONLINE by satellite telephone. "We knew about the visit," he said, "and the attack is a message to the German foreign minister." As on other occasions, though, the spokesman exaggerated the damage caused by the militants.

The Foreign Ministry said there was no evidence the militants had known about Steinmeier's visit. "These events fill me with sadness," Steinmeier himself said, according to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE. "We condemn the attacks in the highest degree. It's a cowardly, malicious attack and it shows that Afghanistan's enemies won't shy away from such cruelty. But these attacks won't keep us from standing with the oppressed people of Afghanistan."

US President Barack Obama has announced a new and more aggressive strategy to stabilize both Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan. He won some help for this project from European allies, including Germany, during a NATO summit in early April, but sending soldiers on combat missions to Afghanistan is still deeply unpopular among German voters.

At the moment Germany has 3,800 soldiers stationed in Afghanistan -- all in the generally peaceful north -- but Berlin plans to boost the number to about 4,500. A total of 32 German soldiers have died since the NATO mission started in 2002.

On Thursday morning, German commentators fretted about the casualties in Afghanistan and also the steady deterioration of government control in Pakistan, where Taliban militants have mounted an offensive to control towns beyond the so-called tribal areas.

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"The Taliban fighters know that military engagement in Afghanistan is especially controversial in Germany. They also know that the political leadership in Berlin has done little to prepare its own country for an ugly mission with more injuries and deaths. German politicians, to speak in general terms, are afraid of Afghanistan -- and of (this fall's) German election. Taliban fighters know all this, which makes Germany a ripe target. Now the government's insistence on a two-tiered Afghan mission has come back to haunt it. There are no two tiers in Afghanistan -- no safe, good-hearted mission in the north as opposed to the mean mission in the south. The German military is in Afghanistan to secure the country. To achieve this goal it will need the full support of Germany's politicians."..

Pakistan and the Taliban
A real offensive, or a phoney war?
As the Pakistani army launches a new assault on the Taliban, America hopes it is now more serious about defeating the militants
The Economist, April 30 (good maps)
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13576371

WHEN Barack Obama unveiled his new policy on Pakistan and Afghanistan in March, he gave a warning that al-Qaeda, the Taliban and other jihadist gangs were “killing Pakistan from within”. The generals who guard Pakistan’s national security had shown only “mixed results” in combating the threat, he said. They would no longer enjoy a “blank cheque”; they must show that they are fighting in good faith.

On April 26th, Pakistan gave a glimpse of this: by launching an attack on the Pakistan Taliban in parts of North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) recently overrun by the militants. It began with an assault in Lower Dir, near the border with Afghanistan, in which the army claims to have killed 70 militants and lost ten soldiers, and which displaced some 30,000 people.

On April 28th the army launched a bigger offensive in the scenic Buner valley, just 100km (62 miles) from Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital. As helicopter gunships and jets strafed their positions, the Taliban took around 70 policemen and soldiers hostage. But showing more resolve than it had previously, the army said airborne troops had been dropped behind Taliban lines and freed 18 of the captives. Major-General Athar Abbas, a military spokesman, said 50 militants had been killed in the first two days of fighting. He said it would take a week to drive the Taliban out of Buner.

This sudden violence seems to have been provoked, in part, by embarrassing media reports of the Taliban’s capture of Buner. Many of the bearded fighters had come from the neighbouring district of Swat, a Taliban stronghold, where NWFP’s government, at the army’s urging, had brokered a ceasefire with the militants in February. Under the terms of this pact, the government promised to institute Islamic law, sharia, throughout the Malakand division (whose seven districts, including Swat and Buner, make up about a third of NWFP’s area). In return, the local Taliban, led by a zealot called Mullah Fazalullah, were to lay down their arms.

The Taliban’s advance into Buner, which had resisted Talibanisation, was a violation of the deal, but at first neither the government nor the army seemed concerned. America, which had opposed the Swat deal from the start, was furious. On April 22nd Hillary Clinton, the secretary of state, said Pakistan was becoming a “mortal threat” to the world; its government and people needed to “speak out forcefully against a policy that is ceding more and more territory to the insurgents”. On April 25th she expressed concern for the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal if the Taliban were to “topple the government”...

...the army stands accused of protecting some of its former militant allies in the tribal areas, to preserve them for future (or perhaps current) use in Afghanistan and Indian-held Kashmir. This allegation is often cited to explain the army’s failures. But there is rarely evidence for it. Increasingly, though, senior American officials decry Pakistan’s obsession with India. General David Petraeus, chief of America’s Central Command, argues that Pakistan faces greater danger from home-grown extremism. With a smile, General Abbas suggests he doesn’t think much of this: “When people come here and tell us about our neighbour, how good or bad he is, allow us to take it with a pinch of salt.”

Rigid, deceitful and, it seems, convinced that Islamist militancy poses a much lesser threat to Pakistan than America reckons, the army will always be an awkward ally along the north-west frontier. Then again America is a difficult friend for Pakistan. Its pressing objective is to stanch the flow of Taliban into Afghanistan and to crush al-Qaeda’s leadership; these are not priorities for many Pakistanis. And if the Pakistani army’s efforts against the Taliban have not been successful, it reasonably counters that the cross-border insurgency has been inflamed by America’s own blunders in Afghanistan and its missile strikes into Pakistan.

The army considers that it takes a longer-term view of what is required for its troubled north-west. In Swat, for example, it seems to think it would be fruitless to pulverise the Taliban, and in the process kill many civilians, while Pakistan’s civil institutions are too weak to fill the vacuum that would be created. This is not entirely unreasonable. Local dissatisfaction with Pakistan’s slothful and corrupt justice system—so much worse, Swatis say, than the traditional system of modified sharia that it replaced in 1969—has helped fuel Mullah Fazalullah’s insurgency.

Many also seem to believe that, once sharia is instituted, the brutal militants will fade away. Inam-ur-Rahman, head of the Swat peace committee, a group that speaks to both the army and Taliban, says: “For God’s sake, let’s implement the deal. It will bring peace.” Alas, that sounds naive. But even a government determined to crush the Taliban will struggle without the support of the local population. “Even if you take a Pushtun person to paradise by force, he will not go,” adds Mr Rahman. “He will go with you only by friendly means.”

Mark
Ottawa