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U.S. diplomatic cables released by the web site Wikileaks follow Afghan President Hamid Karzai's trajectory from an "eager leader anointed by the West to an embattled politician who often baffles, disappoints or infuriates his official allies" (NYT, AFP, CNN). Some members of Karzai's cabinet and inner circle described him as a "weak man" who does not "listen to facts but was instead easily swayed by anyone who came to report even the most bizarre stories or plots against him" (Guardian, Reuters, AP). U.S. ambassador to Kabul Karl Eikenberry wrote about Karzai in a cable last summer: "Two contrasting portraits emerge. The first is of a paranoid and weak individual unfamiliar with the basics of nation building and overly self-conscious that his time in the spotlight of glowing reviews from the international community has passed. The other is that of an ever-shrewd politician who sees himself as a nationalist hero who can save the country from being divided" by political rivals, neighboring countries, and the U.S.
The cables also detail a "steady current" of "grim assessments" about the extent of corruption in Afghanistan...
NATO and Afghan officials, including the then-top commander of NATO troops in Afghanistan Gen. Dan McNeill, Karzai, and the provincial governor Gulab Mangal, all harshly criticized the British performance in Helmand, according to some of the cables, with Mangal, who has been strongly backed by the U.K. and U.S., saying in January 2009, "Stop calling it the Sangin district and start calling it the Sangin base -- all you have done here is built a military camp next to the city" (Guardian, Independent, AFP).
The cables also disclose that Iran is funding a range of Afghan politicians, religious leaders, and scholars, and allegedly providing weapons to the Taliban (Guardian, AFP, Times)...
The Pentagon has reportedly rolled out a prototype of a "smart" shoulder-fired grenade launcher, which can fire 25 mm air-bursting shells, which can be programmed to detonate at a precise distance, up to 2,300 feet (Tel). The Army expects the new weapon to be a "game-changer" in Afghanistan [emphasis added]. U.S. forces in Kunar are reportedly trying a new technique of running development projects on Afghan, rather than American, schedules and only starting projects that could continue after U.S. troops leave (McClatchy)...
A major Afghan-led military operation, with backing from Canadian and U.S. units in the field, is underway to target a Taliban stronghold in lawless territory once held briefly by the Canadian Forces battle group.
The area, west of Kandahar City, is where "all the bad people are," Lt.-Col. Maurice Poitras, senior operations officer with Canada's Task Force Kandahar, said of the strategic Horn of Panjwaii.
Operation Baawar -- a Pashto word meaning "assurance" -- which got underway Sunday, comes at "the people's request," said Brig.-Gen. Ahmad Habibi, commander of the Afghan National Army's 1st Brigade, 205 Corps. The brigade is leading the engagement, which involves hundreds of soldiers.
"Now, with the insurgents, they are not letting kids go to school," he told Postmedia News through an interpreter.
"There's been a lot of intimidation," said Canadian task force commander Brig.-Gen. Dean Milner, describing the insurgents' efforts to force residents to side with the Taliban.
"I have a very good feeling that people out there want us out there."
But part of the challenge will be convincing residents that the Afghan National Security Forces intend to stay and provide sufficient protection in an area that has been a sanctuary for the Taliban...
Part of the immediate plan is to continue construction on an important all-season road, which has been much-delayed by insurgents harassing workers and planting roadside bombs. "It is the only road, it brings everything to them -- it is a vital link," said the battle group's St-Louis. Canadian tanks were to help stand guard over the workers...
Afghans are more pessimistic about the direction of their country, less confident in the ability of the United States and its allies to provide security and more willing to negotiate with the Taliban than they were a year ago, according to a new poll conducted in all of Afghanistan's 34 provinces.
But residents of two key southern provinces that have been the focus of U.S. military operations over the past year say aspects of their security and living conditions have improved significantly since last December.
The new poll - conducted by The Washington Post, ABC News, the British Broadcasting Corp. and ARD television of Germany - found a particularly notable shift in public opinion in Helmand province, where Marines have been conducting intensive counterinsurgency operations. The number of people in Helmand describing their security as "good" jumped from 14 percent in a December 2009 poll to 67 percent now. Nearly two-thirds of Helmand residents now say Afghanistan is on the right track.
In Helmand and in neighboring Kandahar, the percentage of residents reporting threatening nighttime letters from the Taliban has been sliced in half. Public assessments of the U.S. military efforts in the area have also improved over the year, but 79 percent of people in the two provinces say American and allied troops should start their withdrawal next summer or sooner.
The changes in Helmand and Kandahar bolster claims by senior U.S. military officials, including Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top coalition commander, that the application of greater combat power and civilian assistance is starting to make a difference. But the results also lay bare the challenge that remains in encouraging more Afghans to repudiate the insurgency and cast their lot with the government...
Nationwide, more than half of Afghans interviewed said U.S. and NATO forces should begin to leave the country in mid-2011 or earlier. More Afghans than a year ago see the United States as playing a negative role in Afghanistan, and support for President Obama's troop surge has faded. A year ago, 61 percent of Afghans supported the deployment of 30,000 additional U.S. troops. In the new poll, 49 percent support the move, with 49 percent opposed...
Overall, nearly three-quarters of Afghans now believe their government should pursue negotiations with the Taliban, with almost two-thirds willing to accept a deal allowing Taliban leaders to hold political office. Nearly a third of adults see the Taliban as more moderate today than they were when they ruled the country.
But the surge of U.S. troops and reconstruction funds in Helmand and Kandahar have improved many residents' perceptions of their quality of life. In Helmand, 71 percent now rate their living conditions as "good," up from 44 percent late last year, and 59 percent give positive marks to the availability of jobs, up from just 14 percent. In both southern provinces, public assessments of the availability of clean water and medical care are sharply higher than they were a year ago, running counter to trends elsewhere...
In my exclusive interview with General David Petraeus he was encouraged by the progress made since President Obama's surge of forces into Afghanistan, but is he confident that the Afghan army can take the lead from U.S. forces by NATO's 2014 deadline?
“I think-no commander ever is going to come out and say, ‘I'm confident that we can do this.’ I think that you say that you assess that this is-- you believe this is, you know, a reasonable prospect and knowing how important it is-- that we have to do everything we can to increase the chances of that prospect,” the top commander in Afghanistan told me. “But again, I don't think there are any sure things in this kind of endeavor. And I wouldn't be honest with you and with the viewers if I didn't convey that.”
After nine years of war fewer Afghans support a U.S. presence in the country and fewer believe that the United States makes their country any safer, according to a new ABC News/ Washington Post poll
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Afghanistan/afghanistan-poll-things-stand-2010/story?id=12277743
– something that the U.S. “clearly” needs to continue to work on, Petraeus said.
“Well, we clearly have to continue to provide the message to the Afghan people about why we're here, and what it is that we want to do, not just for our own national objectives and coalition objectives, but also for the people of this country, and for the government of Afghanistan, to enable them, indeed, to secure and to govern themselves,” the top commander in Afghanistan said in an exclusive interview.
Petraeus said he is “not sure” why support for the U.S. presence has slipped over the last year, but suggested that some of the poll cutoff dates were before recent progress began.
For example, the Pentagon report which indicated insurgents are gaining ground. Petraeus said that did not account for some of the coalition’s latest successes west of Kandahar City. He also pointed to gains in central Helmand and Kabul province.
“It's been some time since there's been a serious attack here,” he said during our interview in Kabul. “This is not the Baghdad of 2007.”..
The White House said at the end of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit last month that allied states had filled all of the specialized-trainer positions needed for Afghanistan's security forces, an administration priority in the allied war effort.
Military officials say the U.S., however, remains 800 specialized trainers short of the 1,500 the U.S. says are needed from NATO allies to prepare the Afghan army and police to assume control of their nation's security.
The shortfall highlights the U.S.'s challenge in persuading allies to quickly deliver resources for the war. The challenge gained urgency after nations at the Lisbon summit set a goal of handing over nationwide security responsibilities to the Afghan government by the end of 2014.
The White House, when asked last week about the military officials' reports of a shortfall, said the NATO commitments were still being vetted...
Military officials said alliance members offered trainers without the specialized skills that the mission requires. These officials say 600 of the 1,500 training positions had been filled weeks before Lisbon, leaving a gap of 900 slots to be filled at the summit and at a follow-up meeting held last week. Since the Lisbon summit opened, only 100 more specialized trainers have been pledged, the officials said.
Some nations are considering replacing some of their combat troops with trainers, a shift that could help cover the shortfall.
But that could increase the strain on U.S. forces, congressional officials said, as Mr. Obama prepares to begin a gradual troop drawdown starting in July...
While progress has been made building up Afghan forces, military officials say there are critical shortcomings, such as a lack of specialized units that can fly helicopters, gather intelligence and clear roadside bombs, and a shortage of officers with the experience needed to serve as battlefield commanders...
U.S. defense officials said they are hoping they can persuade Canada to help close the training gap. Canada has said it will send 950 trainers—not necessarily specialized—to replace its combat forces after they leave at the end of 2011. Washington wants Ottawa to send at least some of those trainers earlier [emphasis added].
A spokeswoman for Canada's Department of National Defence said planning for the training mission was still under way.
KABUL—The measure of success in the Afghan war, the U.S.-led coalition's day-to-day commander said, will be whether Afghan civilians decide to join public service despite Taliban intimidation.
Coalition forces have been able to seize several Taliban strongholds in south Afghanistan over the recent months, but an insurgent campaign to kill off government workers has hampered efforts to solidify these battlefield gains.
In the south's main city of Kandahar, for example, two-thirds of municipal jobs remain unfilled because of Taliban assassinations and threats.
The Afghans "have to take some risks," said U.S. Lt. Gen. David Rodriguez, who leads the coalition's war-fighting headquarters in Kabul. "It's never going to be perfect security before they fill those positions….How that occurs over time will really be the measuring stick of how we're really accomplishing this mission of building stability."
The general, who commands most combat troops in Afghanistan, outlined what he saw as the military's successes and shortcomings in the year since the American troop surge began. He spoke Monday in an interview ahead of President Barack Obama's Afghan policy review this month, which is expected to endorse the counterinsurgency strategy advocated by the coalition forces' top commander, U.S. Gen. David Petraeus.
Gen. Rodriguez also highlighted a recent shift in Taliban tactics, said insurgents operate in more parts of the country than they did a year ago, and explained the limits of fighting corruption while trying to prop up an Afghan government that is riddled with graft.
"Just as we're not going to kill our way out of this insurgency, we're not going to arrest our way out of the corruption," he said...
Reporting from Kabul, Afghanistan —
After two days in Afghanistan, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said he was convinced the massive infusion of American troops over the last year is turning around the 9-year-old war, even as U.S. soldiers remain locked in a grinding fight to control many parts of the country.
It was Gates' most definitive statement yet endorsing the U.S. strategy to have Afghan forces formally take over lead security responsibility in more peaceful regions beginning in spring, while U.S. and Afghan forces fight together in the most violent regions through 2014...
At the same time, Gates received sobering updates during his visit. Only a few hours before he appeared with Afghan President Hamid Karzai at a news conference in Kabul, Gates had been in restive Helmand province, where Maj. Gen. Richard Mills, the Marine commander in the southern province, said Marines were facing stiff resistance in Sangin, a longtime Taliban stronghold.
Mills said the fierce fighting was the logical consequence of the success Marines have had in driving insurgents out of former Helmand strongholds such as the city of Marja. "He's got a hold on Sangin," Mills said, referring to the insurgents. "The enemy is fighting with desperation."
On Monday, a commander in eastern Afghanistan told him the Islamist insurgency remained potent. A U.S. official said the region had seen a 16% increase in the number of attacks from May through November compared with the same period in 2009. But the official also noted a 28% decrease in attacks that caused casualties to Afghan or Western forces.
U.S. officials concede that large parts of the south and east will probably remain too violent to permit large-scale withdrawal of U.S. and European troops in the near future...
The Afghan army and police remain too fragile and poorly equipped to be able to prevent the Taliban from infiltrating back into already-cleared towns and villages without Marines and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces remaining nearby to assist, U.S. officials said.
For that reason, though security has improved in some areas, Mills said the process of turning over security responsibility to the Afghan army and police in Helmand will be "deliberate" and a "very, very subtle process."..
...there were also reminders of how fragile the modest gains have been and how many additional personnel have been needed to make a difference.
An area in Kandahar that once had a Canadian army company of about 100 soldiers now has a full U.S. battalion of more than 800 soldiers, plus an Afghan army battalion [emphasis added].
The result has been a noticeable improvement in security, said Lt. Col. Peter Benchoff, who briefed Gates during his visit to Zhari district outside Kandahar. "The insurgents are still around, and we've got some work to do, but it's been going pretty well."
The unit's base used to be regularly attacked with mortars and rocket-propelled grenades. The highway running outside the gates saw a roadside bomb attack almost every day. And a bazaar nearby had only a few open shops.
Col. Arthur Kandarian told reporters who flew in by helicopter with Gates that "four months ago you would not have been able to fly in here without getting shot at."
Now the base hasn't been attacked in weeks. Only two bombs have gone off on the highways since September, and the bazaar is beginning to revive. But that doesn't mean the U.S. forces are near being ready to go home.
The biggest constraint, just as in Helmand, is that the Afghan battalion working alongside Benchoff's men was formed only this year and isn't ready to take over security [emphasis added]...
KABUL—U.S. officials are considering Afghan requests to supply heavy weapons to Afghanistan's armed forces for the first time, as a new target date for handing over security responsibilities prompts a reassessment of the country's military's needs.
The Afghan army is likely to be supplied with light armored personnel carriers next year, a major upgrade of its capabilities, a senior coalition official said. There are also plans to provide the Afghans with more artillery firepower, and with limited air surveillance and reconnaissance capacity.
Afghan requests for heavy weapons were previously brushed off as impracticable and unsuitable to the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy here...
It is unlikely that Afghan pleas for sophisticated weapons such as fighter jets or battle tanks will be satisfied in the near future, U.S. officials said. Arms purchases, the senior coalition official cautioned, "have to be weighted against what's sustainable" by an Afghan army that is mostly illiterate and lacks the skills to operate and maintain modern weapons systems.
Until now, the $10 billion-a-year American effort to build Afghanistan's security forces focused largely on wooing recruits, teaching them basic shooting skills, and shipping them off to fight the Taliban—with progress measured by manpower growth. There are currently 147,000 Afghan soldiers and 117,000 Afghan policemen.
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While the coalition's plans approved at a summit in Lisbon last month call for Afghan forces to assume responsibility throughout the country by end 2014, the only area where they already are in the lead is the capital, Kabul, and its surrounding districts.
Even here, Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak said, the underequipped Afghan forces still heavily rely on the coalition for functions such as logistics, air support and bomb disposal...
The current Afghan army, which Mr. Wardak described as "lighter than light," has no tanks or APCs. The country's air force possesses 40 Russian-made helicopters and 12 transport or training planes...
The Army is shipping powerful new rifles to its snipers in Afghanistan to kill insurgents who are firing from greater distances and shooting at troops more frequently than in the early years of the war.
The XM2010 sniper rifle can hit a target 3,937 feet away, which is a quarter-mile farther than the current Army sniper rifle shoots.
The added distance is important because insurgents have been shooting down from ridges and mountaintops where gravity helps their bullets travel farther and beyond the range of Army snipers...
The Army's 2,500 snipers are to start receiving the XM2010 early next year, said Tamilio, who manages weapons programs for the Army. The M24 has been in service since 1988.
Among other improvements contained in the new sniper rifle are more powerful telescope and a device on the muzzle that dampens the noise and flash of a shot, helping to conceal the U.S. sniper...
WASHINGTON -- New U.S. intelligence reports paint a bleak picture of the security conditions in Afghanistan and say the war cannot be won unless Pakistan roots out militants on its side of the border, according to several U.S. officials who have been briefed on the findings.
The reports, one on Afghanistan, the other on Pakistan, could complicate the Obama administration's plans to report next week that the war is turning a corner. U.S. military commanders have challenged the new conclusions, however, saying they are based on outdated information that does not take into account progress made in recent months, says a senior U.S. official who is part of the review process.
The analyses were detailed in briefings to the Senate Intelligence Committee this week and some of the findings were shared with members of the House Intelligence Committee, officials said.
All the officials interviewed spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the classified documents.
The reports, known as National Intelligence Estimates, are prepared by the Director of National Intelligence and used by policymakers as senior as the president to understand trends in a region. The new reports are the first ones done in two years on Afghanistan and six years on Pakistan, officials said. Neither the Director of National Intelligence nor the CIA would comment on either report...
In describing the Afghanistan report, military officials said there is a disconnect between the findings, completed in recent weeks, and separate battlefield assessments done by the war commander, Gen. David Petraeus, and others that contain more up-to-date and sometimes more promising accounts.
A military official familiar with the reports said the gloomier prognosis in the Afghanistan report became a source of friction as a preliminary version was passed among government agencies.
Marine Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged the contrast between the Afghan estimate and Petraeus' reports.
"It's a very disciplined, structured process, so it's got a cutoff date that's substantially earlier in the game than, say, the military review," Cartwright said in a recent interview.
He said officials will have to grapple with whether intelligence and battlefield reports are starting to diverge or whether the gloomier intelligence analysis is "more an artifact of time. Those are the questions that we'll have to work our way through and either feel comfortable about or not feel comfortable about."..
U.S. forces have long expected to do the heavy lifting on the NATO mission in Afghanistan, but even then, the Army battalion that arrived in Ghazni province last summer were troubled by what they found. The Taliban were resurgent in areas that U.S. forces had pacified before handing control to Polish forces a year earlier. “It was as if the [Polish] were waiting for us to come back and release them from their base” and then take the credit, says one U.S. officer, describing how failure to patrol the roads has allowed a route between coalition bases to become choked with roadside bombs. Americans had to return to take charge, he said, because the Poles are “just kind of hanging around.”
Such criticism is common among U.S. officers who have served in Afghanistan, and it is directed not only at Polish forces but also at other NATO forces, some of which are hamstrung by so-called caveats that range from prohibitions against fighting at night to traveling without an ambulance, thereby precluding foot patrols. The Polish force is not bound by any of these constraints, but U.S. officers say the Poles’ top-down approach to war-fighting is ill-suited to a counter-insurgency campaign that requires real-time decision-making by mid- and lower-level officers on the ground. They add that the Poles’ six-month deployments strain continuity, and that logistics snafus make them dependent on U.S. support…
IN NAWA, AFGHANISTAN When Gen. David H. Petraeus makes his case that the military's strategy in Afghanistan is succeeding, he cites the evolution of this community of mud-walled homes and wheat fields:
June 2009: In the throes of the Taliban. A few dozen British soldiers holed up inside a small base in the center of Nawa. Nightly gun and grenade fights. Schools and markets closed. Residents terrorized.
The following 17 months: A 1,000-strong surge battalion of U.S. Marines arrives July 2009. Focuses on protecting the civilian population. American and British advisers build local government. Tens of millions of dollars are pumped in to fund reconstruction projects.
Today: One of the safest districts in southern Afghanistan. Marines who live at former British base have not fired a single bullet while on foot patrol in the past five months. Classrooms packed. Bazaar thriving.
Spring 2011: Afghan forces assume principal responsibility for security. Marines provide emergency backup.
To Petraeus, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, what has occurred here validates his contention that a comprehensive counterinsurgency strategy can reverse Taliban momentum and stabilize Afghanistan after years of downward drift. In presentations to senior members of President Obama's national security team who are participating in an evaluation of the war, he has displayed a PowerPoint slide titled, "Nawa: Proof of COIN [counterinsurgency] Concept."
"We started achieving progress with security, then governance, and then citizen confidence - that's literally how it plays out," Petraeus said in a recent interview at his headquarters in Kabul. "It's the kind of progression we're trying to achieve in other areas."
It is undeniable that Nawa has undergone a remarkable transformation since the Marines swept in, and it represents what is possible in Afghanistan when everything comes together correctly. But five visits by this reporter since July 2009 suggest that the changes in this district are fragile and that much of what has transpired here is unique rather than universal.
"Nawa is not like the rest of Afghanistan," said district governor Abdul Manaf. "It is a great success because many things have happened here that have not happened in other places."
The ratio of troops, both American and Afghan, to the population is higher than in most places. The Afghan army battalion that is partnered with the Marine battalion here has greater experience than many other units in the area. And unlike the vast majority of districts, the contingents of Afghan soldiers and policemen are at full strength.
On the civilian side, Nawa is blessed with a far more harmonious relationship among its tribes than most other districts; Manaf is regarded by U.S. and Afghan officials as an unusually competent governor; and the U.S. Agency for International Development has poured in more money here, per capita, for reconstruction and short-term employment projects than any other part of the country.
Many civilian officials who track the war at the White House, the State Department and the CIA remain unconvinced that other parts of Afghanistan will turn around as quickly as Nawa has. They argue that weak local governance, tribal rivalries, inept development projects and incompetent Afghan security forces remain the norm.
Petraeus disagrees. He contends that many of the positive developments in Nawa - improved security, governance and development - can be replicated in the country's other insurgent-controlled districts.
But for those conducting the White House review, a central question is whether this place actually proves that counterinsurgency strategy can work across Afghanistan and end a conflict that has become the longest war in American history...
NATO has called on Berlin to contribute up to 100 personnel to a planned international deployment of AWACS reconnaissance aircraft over Afghanistan. Berlin looks set to refuse the request because the mission would probably require a parliamentary mandate, for which it would be hard to muster support.
US General David Petraeus, the top military commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, has requested German assistance in the aerial surveillance of Afghanistan's airspace with AWACS reconnaissance aircraft.
He wants to up to 100 German military personnel to join a new NATO mission of AWACS planes next year. Up until now, US forces have provided AWACS reconnaissance to monitor Afghanistan's increasingly busy airspace. AWACS is an acronym for Airborne Early Warning and Control System.
The country still doesn't have a comprehensive radar system to regulate civilian air traffic. That is leading to delays and congestion, which is why the NATO planes are urgently needed [emphasis added].
The German government had tried to stop the US from making the request in recent weeks in order to avoid the embarrassment of refusing it. Berlin fears it will be difficult to muster the necessary German political support for the mission, which may require a new parliamentary mandate.
Germany has the third largest presence in Afghanistan after the United States and Britain. In February, the German parliament approved a new mandate that increased the troop ceiling by 850 to 5,350 soldiers.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,674116,00.html
The mission is deeply unpopular in Germany, as it is in most of the other nations with troops in Afghanistan.
German Refusal Would Put AWACS Mission at Risk
German officials had tried to deflect the request by arguing that all its military personnel in Afghanistan were needed to help train Afghan security forces. Germany's refusal could put the entire NATO AWACS mission at risk.
NATO's multinational AWACS force is based in Geilenkirchen, Germany, and German personnel make up about a third of staff. The US and Britain have already offered to contribute staff for the NATO mission. The planes are unarmed and each is capable of monitoring an area of more than 300,000 square kilometers -- about the size of Poland...