The War in Ukraine

[armrdsoul77]

Low-tech AD.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1827966090028237009

 

[Skysix]

Other than that not being factual...

I hope you are correct, but there is a huge difference and time lag between public promises and actual physical deliveries across the Ukraine border. And OSINT is not great at differentiating the two. Tracking AMC and chartered ships helps a bit when coordinated with sat photos of loading and unloading areas but any logistician with a grain of smarts would time movements to be as unobserved as possible.

 

[KevinB]

I hope you are correct, but there is a huge difference and time lag between public promises and actual physical deliveries across the Ukraine border. And OSINT is not great at differentiating the two. Tracking AMC and chartered ships helps a bit when coordinated with sat photos of loading and unloading areas but any logistician with a grain of smarts would time movements to be as unobserved as possible.

Keep in mind that there are two main methods of supplying Ukraine with military materials.

Presidential Drawdown direct from US stocks, and ordering things for FMA.
Drawdown is fairly easy as it can (usually) be shipped right away. Foreign Military Assistance however is ordered and placed in queue like anyone else, and unless it is for items already under contract there is no guarantee of the priority that it has in the OEM’s build sequence.

In my humble opinion POTUS was a fool to let the Lend Lease wither, as that had the advantage of both methods without the budgetary limits of the DrawnDown, and Snake Sullivan I believe to be the largest issue there.

We’ve also finally learned not to disclose publicly the amount of materials furnished. It can be found by digging - but at least the Russians aren’t getting an advanced warning.

Technical Difficulties