The War in Ukraine

[Kirkhill]

Day 760 - Mar. 24 - Sevastopol hit again, Russia isn't so used to punch back, Sure all those NATO flight hours are benign

Hi guys!

open.substack.com

This:

As another aside, remember how the Americans and the Germans were all strategic and clever and were going to keep the war under control and remove pretexts for the Kremlin to escalate, by never delivering long-range strike weapons to Ukraine? Well, it seems about 100 percent sure that these long-range attacks are all by Ukraine-manufactured drones, and of course the Ukrainians don’t have to ask anyone to launch those. This is a textbook example of “Beltway Navel Gazing”, i.e., the tendency of strategic decision-makers in the government institutions of a big powerful country, lacking the imagination to conceive that the foreign state whose actions the big country wants to dictate, is unlikely to just bow down, and much more likely alternate ways to advance its policies.

This is what you get when you have bureaucracies full of well-paid “experts” that spend a whole lot of their time telling each other how great their institutions are. But I digress.

Both Ukraine and Israel have very different imperatives governing their actions than trying to get re-elected.

 

[Lumber]

Any one seen the movie "Screamers"? Because this is the movie Screamers. Terrifying.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772851022601576728

 

[daftandbarmy]

Any one seen the movie "Screamers"? Because this is the movie Screamers. Terrifying.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772851022601576728

Stay in school, kids

 

[Halifax Tar]

Any one seen the movie "Screamers"? Because this is the movie Screamers. Terrifying.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772851022601576728

I have seen the movie.

There is something inhumane in acts like that that disturb me. If you're going to kill the guy, just kill him. No need to terrify him any more than he already is.

 

[DBNSG]

I have seen the movie.

There is something inhumane in acts like that that disturb me. If you're going to kill the guy, just kill him. No need to terrify him any more than he already is.

Chances are the pilot of the drone is a seventeen year old fresh from a video game and with the same moral clarity. Get some!!!

 

[Skysix]

I have seen the movie.

There is something inhumane in acts like that that disturb me. If you're going to kill the guy, just kill him. No need to terrify him any more than he already is.

FPV operators are like dinosaurs. Movement attracts them and there is very little you can do once they see you. With speeds of up to 300kph you can't outrun them - only maybe trick them into hitting something if you can change direction faster (unlikely). A 12ga with a fast spreading #4 shot might work under 25 yards if you have fast reflexes and shoot skeet but that is not most soldiers. And if they have thermal camera's it will be even harder to hide from them.

 

[Kirkhill]

I have seen the movie.

There is something inhumane in acts like that that disturb me. If you're going to kill the guy, just kill him. No need to terrify him any more than he already is.

Everybody now sees what the rifleman sees through his sights.

They are not shooting at dots on radar screens.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Everybody now sees what the rifleman sees through his sights.

They are not shooting at dots on radar screens.

Paul Grossman talks about this stuff in his books, where its easier to kill from behind a screen or other avenue or at long distance.

Having said that, a lot of what I see these drone operators doing looks to be very inhumane. Like I said, just kill the man, you shouldn't play with him like a toy for a while first.

 

[GR66]

I have seen the movie.

There is something inhumane in acts like that that disturb me. If you're going to kill the guy, just kill him. No need to terrify him any more than he already is.

I don't see this as an attempt to unduly terrify the targeted individual. This is a one-shot munition with the operator controlling it through a small screen. The chance of missing is probably quite high so the operator was probably just trying to make sure his shot wasn't wasted. Other than the brief pause when the target ran around the far side of the tank (and the UAV appears to have had to slow down to avoid overtaking him) at which point in the video do you see the operator having a clear shot?

 

[Halifax Tar]

I don't see this as an attempt to unduly terrify the targeted individual. This is a one-shot munition with the operator controlling it through a small screen. The chance of missing is probably quite high so the operator was probably just trying to make sure his shot wasn't wasted. Other than the brief pause when the target ran around the far side of the tank (and the UAV appears to have had to slow down to avoid overtaking him) at which point in the video do you see the operator having a clear shot?

I really cant give you an answer. But there is something about a little explosive flying machine chasing a man around in an attempt to kill him that I don't like. Just come screaming out of the sun and take him out while he is under the gun barrel. Maybe its just too close to the terminator for my liking lol.

 

[QV]

I really cant give you an answer. But there is something about a little explosive flying machine chasing a man around in an attempt to kill him that I don't like. Just come screaming out of the sun and take him out while he is under the gun barrel. Maybe its just too close to terminator for my liking lol.

Now wait for them to be micro, autonomous, with geo location and facial recognition software dropped en masse over a city. Say 5,000 dropped over the capital city of a nation with the goal of decapitating that country's entire leadership.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Now wait for them to be micro, autonomous, with geo location and facial recognition software dropped en masse over a city. Say 5,000 dropped over the capital city of a nation with the goal of decapitating that country's entire leadership.

When we take the human factor of killing in war, I fear that war will become to easy for us to inflict on others.

 

[Kirkhill]

I don't see this as an attempt to unduly terrify the targeted individual. This is a one-shot munition with the operator controlling it through a small screen. The chance of missing is probably quite high so the operator was probably just trying to make sure his shot wasn't wasted. Other than the brief pause when the target ran around the far side of the tank (and the UAV appears to have had to slow down to avoid overtaking him) at which point in the video do you see the operator having a clear shot?

I really cant give you an answer. But there is something about a little explosive flying machine chasing a man around in an attempt to kill him that I don't like. Just come screaming out of the sun and take him out while he is under the gun barrel. Maybe its just too close to terminator for my liking lol.

Someplace half-roads between the two?

The killing itself may not be as easy as it looks, as GR66 suggests. The operator may be saying "Stop running! I can't get you lined up!" The soldier on the ground is considering if he can get under the tank, but if he can get under the tank then so can the UAV. At that point all rational thought ends.

Meanwhile, from the recce drone's overwatch position the entire thing is just utterly terrifying.

And perhaps that is the point. This is likely released by Budanov's intelligence army of Special Reconnaissance Units, the Kraken types, with their drone navy and air force. Targeting the Russian population.

"Come to Ukraine and you die at a time and place of our choosing. Your tanks can't protect you. You can't run far enough or fast enough. Better to take your chances in the Gulag, or facing your own government's rifles."

And, as a further thought, if this war devolves into partisan activities against an occupying force - what is it going to take to stop those UAVs flying? What does victory look like if those things are ubiquitous?

I put this thing into the same bag of tricks as sirens on Stukas and this video:

Designed to unsettle and disturb.

 

[Kirkhill]

Now wait for them to be micro, autonomous, with geo location and facial recognition software dropped en masse over a city. Say 5,000 dropped over the capital city of a nation with the goal of decapitating that country's entire leadership.

We put chemicals in those pods for washing dishes and clothes.

 

[QV]

View attachment 84074 View attachment 84075

We put chemicals in those pods for washing dishes and clothes.

What is the minimum amount of explosive that a micro drone could carry that would open your skull up on contact? Pretty low I think. And what about toxins? Scary future out there.

 

[daftandbarmy]

When we take the human factor of killing in war, I fear that war will become to easy for us to inflict on others.

And it's something to prepare for rather than ignore and hide away somewhere....

“One strange feeling, which I remember clearly, was a powerful link with the slain, particularly those that had fallen within the past hour or two. There was so much death around that life seemed almost indecent. Some men’s uniforms were soaked with gobs of blood. The ground was sodden with it. I killed, too. ”
― William Manchester

 

[OldSolduer]

Now wait for them to be micro, autonomous, with geo location and facial recognition software dropped en masse over a city. Say 5,000 dropped over the capital city of a nation with the goal of decapitating that country's entire leadership.

that is something to consider.

 

[Furniture]

Someplace half-roads between the two?

The killing itself may not be as easy as it looks, as GR66 suggests. The operator may be saying "Stop running! I can't get you lined up!" The soldier on the ground is considering if he can get under the tank, but if he can get under the tank then so can the UAV. At that point all rational thought ends.

Meanwhile, from the recce drone's overwatch position the entire thing is just utterly terrifying.

And perhaps that is the point. This is likely released by Budanov's intelligence army of Special Reconnaissance Units, the Kraken types, with their drone navy and air force. Targeting the Russian population.

"Come to Ukraine and you die at a time and place of our choosing. Your tanks can't protect you. You can't run far enough or fast enough. Better to take your chances in the Gulag, or facing your own government's rifles."

And, as a further thought, if this war devolves into partisan activities against an occupying force - what is it going to take to stop those UAVs flying? What does victory look like if those things are ubiquitous?

I put this thing into the same bag of tricks as sirens on Stukas and this video:

Designed to unsettle and disturb.

I feel like I wasn't the target audience...

That video hit all my interests, and left me wondering what Met support the AFU needs...

Edit: If those women can make Shepard's pie, borscht, and pierogis I'll sell my own mother to be on their side.

 

[GR66]

Looks like the Russians have scored another fighter kill over Crimea!

...unfortunately for them it was one of their own!

Russian fighter jet downed over occupied Crimea

Several Russian media outlets have reported an incident occurring on Thursday afternoon over the skies of occupied Crimea, involving the downing of a military aircraft. Numerous videos circulating on social media depict a burning aircraft plummeting towards the ground. Analysis suggests that the...

defence-blog.com

 

[KevinB]

I hate when the French are doing the right thing, and we aren’t.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773270627819913388