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The War in Ukraine

The current situation can be laid at the feet of "I'll be flexible after the election" Obama and "I'm ok with a small incursion" Biden... followed by dribs and drabs of support and dump trucks of cash. Unfortunately for Russia, there is now a new POTUS who is in the very least action orientated (you must admit this), has a big ego (doesn't like losing), and has no problem swinging the stick. He is giving everyone an out right now.
why does he want to give anyone an out though?
 
any peace plan that leaves ukrainian territory under russian control and ukraine out of NATO is a win for russia. And how much do you want to bet that russia paying reparations isn't going to be on the table?
Or Vlad still having a travel ban outside his 10ish shit hole list of current countries he can travel to?
 
... Ukraine is half-assed ...
Credit where due, cannot disagree with you re: what the West (not just the U.S.) coulda/shoulda done earlier on.
Only Trump of the last few POTUS' will use the hammer appropriately.
To stop the shooting, maybe - we'll see how the negotiations go & how said hammer's used.
... This "peace deal" is step one. Trump won't be afraid to move to step two if need be ...
Again, we'll see.
... He is giving everyone an out right now.
One observer's "face-saving way out" is another's "no consequences for armed aggression against a neighbour." ISW did a bit of a reminder piece this week about how the last "deal" between UKR & USSR 2.0 went, and offers some lessons that can be learned ....
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Fingers crossed ....
 
President Chamberlain is what he should be called going forward.
At least Chamberlain did what he did because he knew they were going to go to war with Germany they just needed time to build up as they weren’t ready (some of the documents released in the last decade explains his stance, it isn’t the naive we aren’t going to fight germany that it has historically been portrayed as).

Trump isn’t like Chamberlain, he has everything he could possibly need, he is just throwing them to the wolves.
 
At least Chamberlain did what he did because he knew they were going to go to war with Germany they just needed time to build up as they weren’t ready (some of the documents released in the last decade explains his stance, it isn’t the naive we aren’t going to fight germany that it has historically been portrayed as).

Trump isn’t like Chamberlain, he has everything he could possibly need, he is just throwing them to the wolves.
another big difference is that none of NATO or the US has to actually fight in the war or bear the costs of it. Even the support is spread out
 
Love him or hate him, he's the dealmaker, so I suspect it's hard wired - especially dealing with parties he feels he has over a barrel.

Meanwhile, word of some movement via Truth Social here and here (highlights mine) ....
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Interesting difference in tone between the two updates. We'll see how things unfold now 🤞

Late edit, adding some MSM and US state media* updates:

* - No, not being partisan here. Voice of America is "VOA is part of the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), the government agency that oversees all non-military, U.S. international broadcasting. It is funded by the U.S. Congress," including the editorials "Reflecting the Views of the U.S. Government"
Ground News is a great resource too.
 
At least Chamberlain did what he did because he knew they were going to go to war with Germany they just needed time to build up as they weren’t ready (some of the documents released in the last decade explains his stance, it isn’t the naive we aren’t going to fight germany that it has historically been portrayed as).

Trump isn’t like Chamberlain, he has everything he could possibly need, he is just throwing them to the wolves.
 
The US and even NATO officially can create whatever deals they want. Russia will break them and Ukraine will never agree to them without real (enforceable) security guarantees and will keep fighting alone if needs must which will keep Russia fighting until it can't.

Nixon had the best take on handling the Russians of the cold war and later presidents (JFK wasn't too bad either) as does Kaja Kallas of the current crop of 'leaders' in NATO.
 
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If Ukraine was winning we wouldn't be here right now. Ukraine is on the road to complete destruction unless one of two things happen: the West enters the fight fully, or there is a peace deal now.
Ukraine is actually ‘winning’ currently. Russian ground offensives have stalled, and Ukraine has gradually begun retaking some territory (and some more Russian land in Kursk). Russia has less troops in Ukraine at this moment than any other since the invasion as they have stopped being able to replace casualties as quick as they occur.

Now most of this is due to the last minute Hail Mary by President Biden (just think what could have occurs if he hadn’t slow walked aid).
 

....



 
Whither the wobbling weathervane ....

US leaves Europe.


JEF fills a gap (Boris's nuclear deterrent was accepted as realish - Starmer's)
The JEF is a UK-led coalition of like-minded nations (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden),

France inclined to side with JEF (Macron's nuclear deterrent?)

Germany doesn't want anything to do with this - but it is a member of the European Sky Shield system
In October 2022, fifteen European states (Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, the United Kingdom) signed a declaration to join the German-led initiative

....

So whither Canada?

JEF includes Greenland.

Does Canada join JEF? How does JEF work with Trump's NATO and Trump's NORAD?
 
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