Beware of tripwires, they don't work as well anymore...
"The new forms of warfare, from drones to glide bombs, are completely alien to armies which last fought (and lost to) Afghan tribesmen with their inventive use of roadside bombs, mobile phones and Honda 125cc scooters."
Ukraine. Beware the semantic minefield
The dangers to Ukraine multiply. The international focus on President Trump’s tariffs has sucked attention away from Ukraine just as Gaza did in 2024. Trump’s threat to walk-away from a peace deal adds further jeopardy as does Europe’s increasingly unconvincing attempts to demonstrate collective resolve. Linked to this last point is a potentially fatal linguistic carelessness.
Barbara Tuchman in her epic
The Guns of August recounts that in 1910 Major-General (later Field Marshal Sir) Henry Wilson discussed with French General Ferdinand Foch the possible size of any British force which might be committed in the event of a continental war.
‘What is the smallest British military force that would be of any practical assistance to you?’ Wilson asked.
Foch’s
replied, ‘A single British soldier – and we will see to it that he is killed.’
In April 1982 the British politician Enoch Powell berated the Royal Marines on South Georgia and the Falklands for surrendering without suffering any fatalities following the Argentine invasion. He even
suggested that a court martial should be convened.
These two stories explain the importance of the badly-named tripwire concept. The whole point is that the invader should be deterred by the risk of killing troops belonging to a powerful nation which would then retaliate. The second and implicit strand to the tripwire idea is that, to act as a deterrent, the offended nation must have credible military or economic resources to deliver a coherent retaliation.
The dangers to Ukraine multiply. The international focus on President Trump’s tariffs has sucked attention away from Ukraine just as Gaza did in 2024. Trump’s threat to walk-away from a peace deal adds further jeopardy as does Europe’s increasingly unconvincing attempts to demonstrate collective...
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