The War in Ukraine

[Cloud Cover]

The 51st GRAU going up in flames might have been a very serious blow, if this today and Russia's sudden willingness to freeze along current lines and give up claims on Ukrainian soil it doesn't occupy aren't just a coincidences that just happened right after.

It's still blowing up by the way, as of posting. Munitions are landing as far as 8KM away.

‘There are not enough’ — Putin admits gaps in Russian weapons manufacturing

Despite significantly ramping up weapons production last year, Russia's armed forces are still missing key military equipment, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

kyivindependent.com

Alt: https://archive.ph/O9iU8

Anyway, here's more drone stuff. First video features a Pantsir-S1 failing to hit a drone twice while it circled it's target.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1915015360442466442

In the first video, it’s nice to see the Russians paying 55.7 Rubles per litre for gas. That’s about .93/litre Canadian$.

 

[PrairieFella]

In the first video, it’s nice to see the Russians paying 55.7 Rubles per litre for gas. That’s about .93/litre Canadian$.

Expensive as shit for the average Russian.

 

[KevinB]

Expensive as shit for the average Russian.

2.7x at least

In the first video, it’s nice to see the Russians paying 55.7 Rubles per litre for gas. That’s about .93/litre Canadian$.

Average Russian Monthly Wage is 87.9k while that fuel price is 55.7/L, as the average fuel price in Russia for a L of fuel is over 60Rubles and has been going up every month since mid last year. Some estimates have it going well over 120 Rubles / L this year.

Average Canadian Monthly Wage is 5.6k while Canada's current average fuel price is $1.30/L

 

[daftandbarmy]

Beware of tripwires, they don't work as well anymore...

"The new forms of warfare, from drones to glide bombs, are completely alien to armies which last fought (and lost to) Afghan tribesmen with their inventive use of roadside bombs, mobile phones and Honda 125cc scooters."

Ukraine. Beware the semantic minefield​

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The dangers to Ukraine multiply. The international focus on President Trump’s tariffs has sucked attention away from Ukraine just as Gaza did in 2024. Trump’s threat to walk-away from a peace deal adds further jeopardy as does Europe’s increasingly unconvincing attempts to demonstrate collective resolve. Linked to this last point is a potentially fatal linguistic carelessness.

Barbara Tuchman in her epic The Guns of August recounts that in 1910 Major-General (later Field Marshal Sir) Henry Wilson discussed with French General Ferdinand Foch the possible size of any British force which might be committed in the event of a continental war.

‘What is the smallest British military force that would be of any practical assistance to you?’ Wilson asked.

Foch’s replied, ‘A single British soldier – and we will see to it that he is killed.’

In April 1982 the British politician Enoch Powell berated the Royal Marines on South Georgia and the Falklands for surrendering without suffering any fatalities following the Argentine invasion. He even suggested that a court martial should be convened.

These two stories explain the importance of the badly-named tripwire concept. The whole point is that the invader should be deterred by the risk of killing troops belonging to a powerful nation which would then retaliate. The second and implicit strand to the tripwire idea is that, to act as a deterrent, the offended nation must have credible military or economic resources to deliver a coherent retaliation.

Ukraine. Beware the semantic minefield

The dangers to Ukraine multiply. The international focus on President Trump’s tariffs has sucked attention away from Ukraine just as Gaza did in 2024. Trump’s threat to walk-away from a peace deal adds further jeopardy as does Europe’s increasingly unconvincing attempts to demonstrate collective...

www.rusi.org

 

[FJAG]

The second and implicit strand to the tripwire idea is that, to act as a deterrent, the offended nation must have credible military or economic resources to deliver a coherent retaliation.

I've quoted this before. I still believe in it.

The gold standard of deterrence and assurance is a defensive posture that confronts the adversary with the prospect of operational failure as the likely consequence of aggression.

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David Ochmanek, et al. “U.S. Military Capabilities and Forces for a Dangerous World” RAND Corp 2017, 45 https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1782-1.html

 

[daftandbarmy]

The Professor answers your questions...

Peak history geek out: interesting connection between Harold II and the Kiev rulers of old and, through marriage, the Battenberg family:

'Trump will walk away from peace talks in a couple of weeks' | Michael Clarke Ukraine war Q&A

Watch military analyst Michael Clarke's latest Ukraine war Q&A below, and scroll to catch up with the best answers.

news.sky.com

 

[KevinB]

Poland warming up

https://twitter.com/x/status/1915066416778154453

 

[Good2Golf]

Poland warming up

https://twitter.com/x/status/1915066416778154453

Poland’s nuclear-power defense partner approves…

 

[KevinB]

Poland’s nuclear-power defense partner approves…

View attachment 92887

France, Uk or China?
Or maybe all of the above.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Both China and Russia are going to be facing a demographic crisis in a decade, I don't think either will be in any shape to grab territory from each other.

 

[KevinB]

Both China and Russia are going to be facing a demographic crisis in a decade, I don't think either will be in any shape to grab territory from each other.

Population and Population density gives China a much better chance on that.
They have had squatters in Russia for a while, but the Chinese little green men aren’t as obvious as Russia’s as the Chinese don’t go off and try to create a ‘civil’ war everywhere they go.
Thought they do have a tendency to build police stations…

 

[Good2Golf]

France, Uk or China?
Or maybe all of the above.

France: « sans doute! »

China: conceivable, but not likely.

UK: doubt it, they’re a US-controlled vassal state when it comes to nuclear weapons.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Population and Population density gives China a much better chance on that.
They have had squatters in Russia for a while, but the Chinese little green men aren’t as obvious as Russia’s as the Chinese don’t go off and try to create a ‘civil’ war everywhere they go.
Thought they do have a tendency to build police stations…

I suspect that neither country has an accurate handle on their population counts, I think China had a plan to slowly absorb the Russian hinterland near their borders, but might find they lack the people to carry out that plan and maintain their own countryside as well.

 

[GR66]

New Russian drone tactics to avoid cheap, gun-based AD defences and force the Ukrainians to use up more expensive missile systems to take down the drones.

Russian kamikaze drones evade air defenses with steep dive strikes

Russia has altered its drone strike tactics against Ukraine, employing larger formations and higher-altitude approaches in recent attacks on major cities. The adjustment marks a renewed effort by Moscow to overcome Ukraine’s air defenses and strain its missile interceptor supplies. Over the past...

defence-blog.com

I wonder if Germany still has any old 88mm Flak guns kicking around...they were designed for bomber formations and can effectively hit targets up to 8,000m (9,900m max ceiling) according to Wikipedia. Not all solutions need to be new solutions?

 

[Czech_pivo]

I suspect that neither country has an accurate handle on their population counts, I think China had a plan to slowly absorb the Russian hinterland near their borders, but might find they lack the people to carry out that plan and maintain their own countryside as well.

Experts say China will shrink to half of its population from 1.4 billion in present-day to just 872 million by the late 21st century.

Called it 525m decrease over the next 75yrs, or a loss of 7m people per year, each and every year.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Digging into the Chinese pop decrease for just another min, sorry I'm going off topic here.

Looking at the censuses for 2010 and 2020 against the various provinces, its interesting to see which grew, stagnated or decreased over that 10yr period.

#1 on the largest decrease at just over a 20% decline in population was the province of Heilogjiang which is quite interesting as it found in the upper northeast portion of China bordering the Russian provinces of Amur, the Jewish Autonomous Region, Khabarovsk and Primorsky Krai where Vladivostok is location - 2010 - 38million to 2020 - 31.8million

#2 on the list was Jilin, with about a 14% decrease in population. Guess where its located? Adjacent to Heilongjiang on its western border. Jilin borders the Vladivostok area and North Korea. It went from 27.4 million to 21 million.

#3 Inner Mongolia was flat

 

[KevinB]

Digging into the Chinese pop decrease for just another min, sorry I'm going off topic here.

Looking at the censuses for 2010 and 2020 against the various provinces, its interesting to see which grew, stagnated or decreased over that 10yr period.

#1 on the largest decrease at just over a 20% decline in population was the province of Heilogjiang which is quite interesting as it found in the upper northeast portion of China bordering the Russian provinces of Amur, the Jewish Autonomous Region, Khabarovsk and Primorsky Krai where Vladivostok is location - 2010 - 38million to 2020 - 31.8million

#2 on the list was Jilin, with about a 14% decrease in population. Guess where its located? Adjacent to Heilongjiang on its western border. Jilin borders the Vladivostok area and North Korea. It went from 27.4 million to 21 million.

Where do you think they went…
They didn’t all die…

#3 Inner Mongolia was flat

 

[GR66]

Where do you think they went…
They didn’t all die…

Based on my last visit they went to Venice...and Instagram can prove it!

 

[Czech_pivo]

Where do you think they went…
They didn’t all die…

Well, I'm going to guess that they all went further south to warmer weather, more job opportunities and better access to basic resources and jobs.
I remember reading a number of articles about 10yrs ago talking about the dropping, massively dropping of the water tables in Heilongjiang province because of manufacturing processes and such. It was leading to water shortages and massively polluted water.

 

[KevinB]

Well, I'm going to guess that they all went further south to warmer weather, more job opportunities and better access to basic resources and jobs.
I remember reading a number of articles about 10yrs ago talking about the dropping, massively dropping of the water tables in Heilongjiang province because of manufacturing processes and such. It was leading to water shortages and massively polluted water.

China has sent several million people into Russia as squatters.
While I have no doubt that some moved south - there was also a lot of forced migration north.