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The War in Ukraine

Brad Sallows said:
So is China. So is Iran. Probably some others. So what?
Click to expand...
So we need to acknowledge it and not live in a unicorns and rainbow universe where we think we are adequately prepared with deep enough magazines and stocks, trained appropriately for 21st century warfare, and able to actually maintain what equipment we have. Plus of course, only spend on the high dollar high tech after the objectively needed (not politically expedient) quantity of operational current generation equipment has been met.

Using multi million dollar missiles to shoot down hundred thousand dollar drones and cheap missiles is not a sustainable, or even marginally acceptable strategy. Not to mention the inability to reload ships VLS cells without leaving the theatre of operations.

Otherwise we are back on the throes of COIN but on a vastly grander and more significant scale. The Axis countries can produce 'targets' faster than we can produce systems to take them out. For example FPV drones at $1-2k vs tanks and IFV/APV's at $1-2m is a non winnable exchange (with current countermeasures). This is a strategy that will lead to either an economic or military disaster. Check out Perun's numerous analyses of various aspects of defense economics.

While the Allies GDP and production POTENTIAL is far greater than the Axis can hope to match, two things can lead to their ascendance. We actually need to recognise and move to a (partial or full) war footing and get or make our massive margin in industrial capacity work again as it did in the early '40's. And we need to have an electorate, politicians and corporate leadership that are clear eyed, able to think critically and dismiss "fake news" and other info/psy ops and most importantly, put the nation ahead of their narrow and parochial self interests.

I fear we are doomed in the short term and will only smell the coffee after a defeat elsewhere that hurts us at home. Unless some opponent is dumb enough to take advantage of the new tech that is cheaply available and our commercially driven lax border security to launch a barrage of cruise and short range conventional ballistic missiles from a Q-ship (container ships are the obvious vector) just outside the 12 mile limit.

Disclaimer: I am not an intel or military analyst but I have slept at Holiday Inn Express's and read a lot and widely.
 
KevinB said:
"I really do believe the intel, and the briefings that we have gotten... I believe Xi, and Vladimir Putin and Iran, really are an axis of evil."
Click to expand...
Well, there goes the support of much of the left. They hate that "Axis of Evil" stuff.
 
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