The War in Ukraine

[KevinB]

Russia begins its response to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Multiple ministries are involved and the command structure is still forming. Someone in Ukraine knew what they were doing and exploited a weak seam in Russian C2. A few important issues to watch: 🧵 pic.twitter.com/TinPWMpAEN

— Dara Massicot (@MassDara) August 12, 2024

 

[KevinB]

This is HUGE.

There is ample precedent for this: The Flying Tigers in China. The Eagle Squadron in the UK. Soviet pilots flying for North Korea during the Korean War. https://t.co/gOrtJAy3zr

— Dr. Fred Hoffman, Lieutenant Colonel (ret.) 🇺🇸 (@InfoAgeStrategy) August 12, 2024

 

[KevinB]

A fairly accurate depiction of Russian accuracy -- there is a reason they like really big bombs, rockets and missiles.

Back to back russian videos I watched:

lancet: miss
lancet: hits a tree
ka-52: atgm hits ground ~800 meters short
ka-52: atgm hits a previously destroyed truck
ka-52: atgm hits ground ~1000m short

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) August 11, 2024

 

[dimsum]

This is HUGE.

There is ample precedent for this: The Flying Tigers in China. The Eagle Squadron in the UK. Soviet pilots flying for North Korea during the Korean War. https://t.co/gOrtJAy3zr

— Dr. Fred Hoffman, Lieutenant Colonel (ret.) 🇺🇸 (@InfoAgeStrategy) August 12, 2024

Maybe they can have a catchy name, perhaps something related to the capital city of the country they’re looking to protect.

Hmm…Ghosts…of…something….

 

[KevinB]

Rybar places Ukrainan forward elements another 6km NE of where we had them geolocated yesterday. pic.twitter.com/V30AgXGwdb

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) August 12, 2024

 

[The Bread Guy]

Pro-UKR source, so grains of salt needed, but an interesting stat to share ....

Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi says Ukraine controls nearly 1,000 square kilometers of Russia - Euromaidan Press

Zelenskyy orders to prepare a humanitarian plan "for the area of operation."

euromaidanpress.com

 

[Czech_pivo]

Well if this is correct and his unit is sufficiently large enough, I think the Zillow have cut the main west/east highway west of Kursk. Daily big news if true and they are able to hold and expand.

⚡️A video of a Ukrainian military officer from N.P. Lhiv, Kursk Oblast, 15 km from the Kursk NPP.
We are waiting for official information.

👉 @blyskavka_ua pic.twitter.com/F23UHG3Gio

— BLYSKAVKA (@blyskavka_ua) August 12, 2024

 

[brihard]

Well if this is correct and his unit is sufficiently large enough, I think the Zillow have cut the main west/east highway west of Kursk. Daily big news if true and they are able to hold and expand.

⚡️A video of a Ukrainian military officer from N.P. Lhiv, Kursk Oblast, 15 km from the Kursk NPP.
We are waiting for official information.

👉 @blyskavka_ua pic.twitter.com/F23UHG3Gio

— BLYSKAVKA (@blyskavka_ua) August 12, 2024

I’ve seen that one quoted a few times on posts saying it’s BS, FWIW.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I have to admire the Ukrainian Opsec on this, no one knows what the goal is, where the forces are exactly at, what is their next move. It must be paralyzing for the Russian Command to deal with.

 

[KevinB]

I have to admire the Ukrainian Opsec on this, no one knows what the goal is, where the forces are exactly at, what is their next move. It must be paralyzing for the Russian Command to deal with.

Well the Russians have managed to confuse it even more as reportedly they have removed big G as the Commander of the Operations related to Kursk and put the FSB in charge.

 

[Good2Golf]

I have to admire the Ukrainian Opsec on this, no one knows what the goal is, where the forces are exactly at, what is their next move. It must be paralyzing for the Russian Command to deal with.

Except for ex-Gen Gerasimov…he’s not worrying about how to deal with it…

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I look forward to seeing the FSB conduct tactical battles and manoeuvres.

 

[brihard]

I have to admire the Ukrainian Opsec on this, no one knows what the goal is, where the forces are exactly at, what is their next move. It must be paralyzing for the Russian Command to deal with.

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that most of us here are limited to OSINT. The Russians still possess SIGINT and HUMINT capabilities, photo and radar satellites, aerial reconnaissance… however much or little that know, it’s still definitely more than us.

However Ukraine is likely being fed much more and better data than that.

 

[KevinB]

Probably as good a commentary as any that I have read.

Ukraine War, 12 August 2024: Wildschweinjagd

Good evening everybody!

open.substack.com

 

[KevinB]

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that most of us here are limited to OSINT. The Russians still possess SIGINT and HUMINT capabilities, photo and radar satellites, aerial reconnaissance… however much or little that know, it’s still definitely more than us.

All the data in the world isn’t useful unless it’s processed into actionable intelligence.

It appears that Russia (at this point) is not managing the analysis and dissemination well at all, nor the decision making process when that data is presented to the power that be.

However Ukraine is likely being fed much more and better data than that.

Yup.


It’s been said that the RuAF had knowledge of the Ukrainian build up near the border and it was discounted and the analysts that brought it up were punished.

 

[PrairieFella]

The Russian bot machine seems to be going gangbusters to make the Ukrainian losses seem worse for morale purposes. I came across a Reddit clip claiming "Heavy Ukrainian Losses in Kursk" and it looked like one KIA and a Senator. The panic seems to be palpable in the Russian sources. Apparently Gerasimov has been sacked and has been replaced by Bortnikov. No actual confirmation on that. He's bad news, being a Cheka apologist and believing in using repression as a legitimate tool for the state. All in all, a brutal, probably sick fuck.Bortnikov is one of the most powerful men in Russia behind Putin, as he's in charge of the FSB and now potentially the Army. He does hold the rank of general although I don't think he was ever in the Army.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Video from the Pokrovsk district. Watching the Orcs running around in circles being chased by a drone is pretty brutal.

🔞 Repelling the russian meat assault. Pokrovsk direction.
Source: https://t.co/QAxc4kuUUO pic.twitter.com/cUp62rxv9o

— ✙ Albina Fella ✙ 🇺🇦🇬🇧🇫🇷🇸🇪🇩🇪🇵🇱🇨🇦🇦🇺 (@albafella1) August 12, 2024

 

[Skysix]

This is HUGE.

There is ample precedent for this: The Flying Tigers in China. The Eagle Squadron in the UK. Soviet pilots flying for North Korea during the Korean War. https://t.co/gOrtJAy3zr

— Dr. Fred Hoffman, Lieutenant Colonel (ret.) 🇺🇸 (@InfoAgeStrategy) August 12, 2024

Need experienced crew chiefs and other ground crew as well.

 

[Skysix]

Well the Russians have managed to confuse it even more as reportedly they have removed big G as the Commander of the Operations related to Kursk and put the FSB in charge.

Because of course spies know how to manage a defensive LSCO

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that most of us here are limited to OSINT. The Russians still possess SIGINT and HUMINT capabilities, photo and radar satellites, aerial reconnaissance… however much or little that know, it’s still definitely more than us.

However Ukraine is likely being fed much more and better data than that.

It's that leaking information to OS that I am speaking of, it seems the Russians lost quite few troops to citizens posting video's. Generally the Ukrainians and their army are far better at maintain radio silence than the Russians.