Justin Trudeau hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Furniture]

Meanwhile the new Labour Minister of Defence is having his own "Come to Jesus" moment.

Defence Secretary: ‘The Russian conflict led my son to join the Army. Now this is personal to me’

John Healey on facing an ‘era of insecurity’ and why Trump’s presidency won’t impact Labour’s strategy on the Armed Forces

www.telegraph.co.uk

Not much of a military background.

But... His son joined up.



Labour politicians are not generally associated with patriotism. As the lad's Mum said, it's a bit old fashioned as far as they are concerned.

I think he may be teaching Mum and Dad a bit as well.

....

Meanwhile, Dad had a visit to Kyiv where he learnt this:

There is nothing "old fashioned" about wanting to serve for "King and Country". When I joined back in the millennial days around 2001, many of us joined for the same reason. Back then we made "ironic" jokes about it, but when you got a bit more earnest with people, service to Canada was a major factor.

I think the big difference is that now being for "King and Country" is a bit counter culture, so it's "cool" to be old fashioned.

I grew up surrounded by men who had served in WWII, and the church had a scroll with all the names of the local men who served. They had a gold star beside the names of the men who didn't come home. "For God, King, and Country" was written in large font across the top of the scroll, and as a young kid hoping one day to be a "good" man, that was a motivator.

I'm not suggesting we need to get deep into jingoistic rhetoric about "God, King, and Country", but maybe we need to get back to more "King and Country"... Maybe more palatable for the university set, "Canada doesn't completely suck, and maybe we should do something to make sure it continues to not suck."

 

[dimsum]

The CAF doesn't need a sniper-clerk. Or a Sharpshooter Sup Tech. The CAF needs the pers to be experts in their field. Same with Bde Staff - they need to be the experts in Bde stuff - not sniping at insurgents.

Some of the clerks I’ve met are certainly snipers…in sarcasm

 

[OldSolduer]

Some of the clerks I’ve met are certainly snipers…in sarcasm

That’s a characteristic of infantry clerks.

 

[Rifleman62]

One way to look at the cost of war to the West.

 

[Rifleman62]

Someone should do this type of graphic to indicate what 2% of GDP for Defence would cost per monthly cup of coffee.

Don't go to Starbucks. How much is a regular cup cost there? Timmies is $2.12 where I live. Cheaper at McDonalds.

 

[The Bread Guy]

OP edit to correct math

Someone should do this type of graphic to indicate what 2% of GDP for Defence would cost per monthly cup of coffee.

Don't go to Starbucks. How much is a regular cup cost there? Timmies is $2.12 where I live. Cheaper at McDonalds.

Toronto Star said in '22-23 the average price of coffee was around $3 - Bank of Canada says that would be about $3.20 in today dollars.

World Bank and Moody's says Canada's GDP these days is ~US$2.14k trillion, which translates to just under CAN$3 trillion - 2% of that would be $60B into defence. For comparison, CMA says Canada's spending more than $49M/year on health care.

~42 million population = ~$71,400 /Canadian/year. Two percent of that = ~$1430/Canadian/year/person, or ~$28/week/person, or ~$4/day/person for the new defence level.

If we believe $3.20 is an OK average price for coffee, that's about 450 coffees/year, 38 coffees/month or 1 1/4 coffees/day per Canadian, to get to 2% GDP into defence.

As always, I stand to be straightened out on my math Thanks to those straightening out my math

 

[Kirkhill]

2% of 3,000,000,000,000 is 6,000,000,000?

I think you slipped a decimal.

I come up with 60,000,000,000 or 60 Billion Canadian Dollars

20% of that would mean a capital outlay of 12 Billion Canadian Dollars annually.

Your coffee maths is better. It just shows what you really value.

 

[Skysix]

Corrected post - didn't look at the graphic closely re Canada's cups of coffee.

But what is this fixation on coffee all about? Why not compare to a liter of gasoline - also a consumer consumables but one that affects buyers more in terms of annual income?

 

[Kirkhill]

Corrected post - didn't look at the graphic closely re Canada's cups of coffee.

But what is this fixation on coffee all about? Why not compare to a liter of gasoline - also a consumer consumables but one that affects buyers more in terms of annual income?

Perhaps because people can do without their coffee --- addictions aside.
Coffees are discretionary purchases.

By contrast gasoline/diesel is not a discretionary purchase.
Witness the fact that no matter how high the taxes, tariffs, surcharges and penalties go people still buy gasoline. In part because nobody can afford to buy a new vehicle of any sort, gas, diesel, ev or hybrid. But they still need to get to work and they still need to buy groceries.

Many folk see defence on the discretionary side of the ledger, along with coffee.

 

[RangerRay]

Perhaps because people can do without their coffee --- addictions aside.
Coffees are discretionary purchases.

By contrast gasoline/diesel is not a discretionary purchase.
Witness the fact that no matter how high the taxes, tariffs, surcharges and penalties go people still buy gasoline. In part because nobody can afford to buy a new vehicle of any sort, gas, diesel, ev or hybrid. But they still need to get to work and they still need to buy groceries.

Many folk see defence on the discretionary side of the ledger, along with coffee.

One downside is the price of gas varies considerably between countries, let alone within the same city. Petrol is taxed at wildly different rates in each country and each state/province. Depending on where people live or commute, there is a wildly different demand for gasoline, especially if you’re in a small European country with an extensive public transit system, or if you live in rural Western Canada. I think it would be hard to use that as a meaningful comparison.

Coffee addiction is more universal.

 

[The Bread Guy]

2% of 3,000,000,000,000 is 6,000,000,000?

I think you slipped a decimal.

I come up with 60,000,000,000 or 60 Billion Canadian Dollars

20% of that would mean a capital outlay of 12 Billion Canadian Dollars annually.

Your coffee maths is better. It just shows what you really value.

Hell, let's go with the PBO figures, then

In 24-25, Canada's spending $41B, representing 1.35%. Pushing that up to 2% brings it to just under $60B in 24-25 dollars.

$60,000,000,000 divided among 42,000,000 Canadians = $1,428.57/Canadian/year = 446 coffees/Canadian/year = 37 coffees/Canadian/month = 1.4 coffees/Canadian/day

One downside is the price of gas varies considerably between countries, let alone within the same city. Petrol is taxed at wildly different rates in each country and each state/province. Depending on where people live or commute, there is a wildly different demand for gasoline, especially if you’re in a small European country with an extensive public transit system, or if you live in rural Western Canada. I think it would be hard to use that as a meaningful comparison.

Not to mention weekly/daily/hourly fluctuations, unlike coffee

 

[ytz]

$20B more in defence spending. $40B existing deficit. At least $10B more to match Trump corporate tax cuts.

$70B is the starting point on the gap that has to be closed with a combination of spending cuts and tax increases. And again this is what the current budget looks like:

The 2024 Federal Budget at a Glance - HillNotes

The federal budget outlines the government’s revenue estimates and expenditure priorities for the fiscal year. It is a key component of the parliamentary financial cycle. The outlook for budgetary revenues and expenses can be found in tables A1.6 and A1.7 of Budget 2024.

hillnotes.ca

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Well the secret is to drop your GDP, but maintain your current defense spending, eventually you get to 2% that way.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

If only we did not have $54 Billion in debt payment, every year…

 

[daftandbarmy]

If only we did not have $54 Billion in debt payment, every year… so far

There, FTFY

 

[RangerRay]

$20B more in defence spending. $40B existing deficit. At least $10B more to match Trump corporate tax cuts.

$70B is the starting point on the gap that has to be closed with a combination of spending cuts and tax increases. And again this is what the current budget looks like:

The 2024 Federal Budget at a Glance - HillNotes

The federal budget outlines the government’s revenue estimates and expenditure priorities for the fiscal year. It is a key component of the parliamentary financial cycle. The outlook for budgetary revenues and expenses can be found in tables A1.6 and A1.7 of Budget 2024.

hillnotes.ca

And that’s before all the other national security, border security, law enforcement, justice, infrastructure, etc deficits are added in too.

 

[Kirkhill]

There, FTFY

A big issue with the 2-3% of GDP is the internal economy vs the external economy.

The 20% of the budget that is supposed to be capital, in the Canadian context, is largely external economy. We don't make much internally so we have to buy it externally from foreign suppliers. That increases our foreign debt. A remedy to foreign debt is foreign sales. Guns for oil/gas.

The better remedy is to deliver the capital requirement from domestic sources. In the Canadian context that means buying trucks, Argos, BRPs, Ford Senators, GMD ISVs, LAVs (II, III and 6), Diemaco guns, ODTC bullets from Quebec, sonars and radars and Fire Control Systems .... there is a bunch of stuff that Canadian industry makes that the CAF can use ... other countries would buy what their country produces and make the best use out of it as a primary course of action.

Buying foreign kit is a distant second.

The other point of this, though, is that 80% of the budget is internal economy by its nature. It is spending Canadian dollars on Canadians to supply services to Canadians for Canadian needs. This is about reallocation of Canadian dollars by the government. That dollar can enter the economy via a welfare recipient, a student, a bureaucrat, a contractor, a consultant, a firefighter, a doctor, a police officer, or a soldier. The impact on the economy is identical in each case.

In fact it is not impossible to see tax dollars circulating by paying a welfare recipient and a consultant additional government dollars for training time and availability as a reserve soldier.

Those actions would change the % of GDP but not change the overall budget. All government would have to do would be to sell Canadians on the value of public service in general and military service in particular.

Marketing is everything!

 

[Kirkhill]

What is the market?

Until recently, little was known about the state of recruitment within the CAF. But Blair’s May 27, 2024 statement to the House of Commons’ National Defence Committee (NDDN) shone important light about the situation. In 2023-24, 70,880 Canadians and permanent residents applied to the Canadian Forces Recruiting Group. Only 4,000 were enrolled. When John McKay, NDDN chair, probed further, Vice Chief of the Defence Staff Lieutenant-General Frances Allen replied:

Certainly, we always want to do what we can to reduce both the time and the process necessary to bring Canadians into the armed forces. In any recruiting process, and this certainly has been true historically, not everybody who applies will meet the standards necessary to join the Canadian Armed Forces and not everybody's interest necessarily stays the same. We know, however, we have a role to play in making the recruiting process faster and easier so that people's interest does not go elsewhere.

When McKay responded “If I know there are 70,000 people outside the door who want to get in and are, by and large, qualified, and we have a 16,000-person deficit—in other words, people are leaving more quickly than they're being replaced—commitments to improving sound like a series of excuses,” LGen Allen discussed the review into changing medical standards and how they fit within the framework of universality of service and the work towards accelerating security clearances.

What this exchange and that this basic data suggests is that it is not necessarily an issue of young Canadians wanting to join the military (or not), it is mostly about getting them in. And while the military has been arguing that the pandemic made the issue worse, the past five years of data1 (and the latest Auditor General report on the matter, from 2016) would suggest otherwise:

Fiscal Year (1 April to 31 March) Applications Received Candidates Enrolled
2019-2020 36,662 5,167
2020-2021 45,626 2,023
2021-2022 38,030 4,778
2022-2023 43,934 3,930
2023-2024 70,880 4,301

Time to Rethink Military Recruitment - Canadian Global Affairs Institute

 

[Kirkhill]

DND/CAF composition​

Component and Size
Regular Force: 68,000
Reserve Force: 27,000
Civilians: 24,000
Canadian Rangers: 5,200

Total: 124,200

Flipbook – Transition binder 2020 - Canada.ca

March 2020 - Proactive divulgation - Transition binder - Minister of National Defence

www.canada.ca

2023-2024 Applicants - 70,880 for a Regular Force of 68,000, and a Reserve Force of 27,000 with a Ranger Force of 5,200.
Civilians 24,000.

 

[Kirkhill]

Meanwhile - the Canadian Defence Industry.

State of Canada's Defence Industry 2024

Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada (ISED) joined forces with the Canadian Association of Defence and Security Industries (CADSI) to publicly release a new report on Canada’s defence industry for decision makers. Features of the report include building analytic capacity through...

ised-isde.canada.ca

GDP Economic Impact, 2022
Defence Industry Canadian Suppliers to Defence Industry Consumer Spending by Associated Employees Total
$4.7B $2.7B $2.2B $9.6B


Jobs Economic Impact, 2022
Defence Industry Canadian Suppliers to Defence Industry Consumer Spending by Associated Employees Total
36,000 25,200 20,000 81,200