The War in Ukraine

[KevinB]

Russia isn't going to choose to fuck off. The only way Russia will fuck off is with military force, Ukraine on their own is not capable. Are you willing to commit NATO forces into direct combat vs Russia, I'm not.

With that attitude 80 years ago, Europe would be speaking German.

I'm not surprised people on an Army forum want wars to continue, I wonder how many here joined during the Afghanistan years to specifically WANT to deploy overseas?

My first response to you was deleted, as apparently calling a spade a spade isn’t tolerated here anymore.

 

[KevinB]

Sending weapons and money alone won't be enough to regain territories lost. Ukraine doesn't have the manpower on the ground.

Cut Russia off from China, Iran and North Korea, and weapons and financial support would be more than sufficient.

 

[Quirky]

Cut Russia off from China, Iran and North Korea, and weapons and financial support would be more than sufficient.

Good. Do it.

 

[Eaglelord17]

I'm Ukrainian and still have relatives there, so yes I have a small stake in all this. Russia is the aggressor, however they aren't 100% at fault with NATO expansionism on their border. Ukraine must deal with the fact that they'll lose territory.

Russia signed a treaty in the 90s that they would respect Ukraines sovereignty in exchange for getting rid of nukes.

They broke their agreement. They are 100% at fault for invading Ukraine, their feeble excuses to justify their expansionism isn’t reality.

Russia taking this land has huge implications for the worlds order. If we allow Russia to take this land it basically tells any country the only way to secure itself is with nuclear weapons, which a nuclear arms race isn’t what we want to start.

 

[Cdn_Merchant_Navy Guy]

I already answered it. Canada needs a military for homeland defense, which we are lacking. It's not right to attack other countries, but it's been happening throughout human history. Canadian borders CAN be lost if we aren't prepared.

"Canada needs a military for homeland defense, which we are lacking." Agreed.
"It's not right to attack other countries," - Agreed. So then at what point are we willing to draw a line to stop aggression?
" but it's been happening throughout human history" - So what? Precedent doesn't necessarily make right.
"Canadian borders CAN be lost if we aren't prepared." Possibly. But if showing disinterest to the fate of other nations, or worse, appear to passively encourage aggression on others (which, with respect, you appear to doing in this thread), then what moral right would we have in requesting aid in our own defense in the face of aggression?

I do believe that there has been a serious lack of resolve on the part of Canadian governments to prioritize the security of our nation. The war in Ukraine isn't just about that country. I believe that Cdn borders can be lost if we aren't prepared. There is a mental preparation that goes with it, and that's taking place right now in Ukraine.

It's extremely offensive to assert that members of Army forum would want war for it's own sake.

 

[Quirky]

If we allow Russia to take this land

There is nothing to suggest otherwise that this will be the eventual outcome. With Trump being elected the likelihood of Ukraine losing some of its land for any peace deal is high.

There is a mental preparation that goes with it, and that's taking place right now in Ukraine.

Canadians didn't get that message. Defense spending and more importantly, personnel and equipment, hasn't improved since the war started. We are further behind now than we've ever been. Is there an appetite to increase to 2% when so many are struggling with COL and wanting to keep their social safety nets? Doubt it.

 

[Kirkhill]

Russia signed a treaty in the 90s that they would respect Ukraines sovereignty in exchange for getting rid of nukes.

They broke their agreement. They are 100% at fault for invading Ukraine, their feeble excuses to justify their expansionism isn’t reality.

Russia taking this land has huge implications for the worlds order. If we allow Russia to take this land it basically tells any country the only way to secure itself is with nuclear weapons, which a nuclear arms race isn’t what we want to start.

There are lots of zones around the world with "unceded territory" where the conflict is managed without the use of arms. Green zones. Demilitarized Zones.

List of territorial disputes - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[GR66]

Sending weapons and money alone won't be enough to regain territories lost. Ukraine doesn't have the manpower on the ground.

That is quite possibly accurate so long as Putin is in power but that doesn't mean that weapons and money can't significantly influence the outcome of this conflict.

The Russian pull-out from Afghanistan was largely due to the lack of military success, the significant drain on the Russian economy as well as significant protests from the families of the estimated 15-26,000 Soviets killed and 54,000 wounded.

While Russia in 2024 is not the Soviet Union in 1989 many of the same factors still have the potential to influence the outcome of the Ukraine War.

The will of Russian soldiers to continue to fight may be impacted by their perceived success on the ground. If they feel they are winning the conflict then their moral may be buoyed. If they feel they are sacrificing their lives without any obvious victory in sight or if they feel their losses are too high for the minimal progress they are making then their willingness to fight may decrease which in turn could further reduce their effectiveness making them even less willing to sacrifice themselves. So while additional Western support may not result in a decisive Ukrainian victory and the recapture of all lost territories it could have a significant impact on whatever settlement does end up happening.

Same with the economy and the support of the civilian population. If the burdens of both continue to rise with little seen to be gained by the sacrifices the support of both the political elite and the general public for those leaders undertaking the war could lead to increased internal pressure to stop the fighting and even a willingness to give more in any negotiations. Continued Western support for Ukraine increases the chance for such outcomes.

Overall your sense of geopolitics seems to look more like a game of Risk than reality. This isn't a case of Russia (25 armies) attacks Ukraine (7 armies) so Russia wins. Conflicts are rarely so isolated especially in the modern, interconnected World. WW II wasn't a case of Germany vs Poland followed by Germany vs France, etc. It was Germany/Italy/Japan against a coalition of Allied powers fighting back against those fascist, expansionist states. Those Allied countries worked together to counter the expansion of the Axis countries because they knew (from the direct experience of Czechoslovakia, etc.) that unless they stood together in collective defence that they would be defeated individually.

The situation in Ukraine is the same today. The Russians/Soviets have shown that they are quite willing to pick off their neighbours one by one if we permit them:

• Ukrainian War of Independence (1917-1921)
• Kazakhstan Campaign (1917-1920)
• Finnish Civil War (1918)
• Sochi Conflict (1918-1919)
• Latvian War of Independence (1918-1920)
• Estonian War of Independence (1918-1920)
• Lithuanian-Soviet War (1918-1919)
• Georgian-Ossetian Conflict (1918-1920)
• Polish-Soviet War (1919-1921)
• Invasion of Azerbaijan (1920)
• Invasion of Armenia (1920)
• Invasion of Georgia (1921)
• Soviet intervention in Mongolia (1921)
• Urtatagai conflict w/Afghanistan (1925-1926)
• Sino-Soviet conflict (1929)
• Red Army intervention in Afghanistan (1929 & 1930)
• Soviet invasion of Xinjiang (1934)
• Soviet invasion of Poland (1939)
• Winter War w/Finland (1939-1940)
• Occupation and annexation of the Baltic States (1940)
• Soviet-Afgan War (1979-1989)
• South Ossetian War (1991-1992)
• War in Abkhazia (1992-1993)
• Transnistria War (1992)
• Tajikistani Civil War (1992-1997)
• Russo-Georgian War (2008)
• Invasion of Ukraine (2014-present)

These are just the conflicts where Russian/Soviet forces invaded their neighbours. It doesn't include the many, many uprisings within the Soviet Union against their brutal and oppressive rule/occupation or the very many overseas conflicts supported by the Soviets/Russians either directly or indirectly (including Syria, Mali, the CAR, Angola, Chad, Vietnam, Korea, etc., etc., etc.).

How long does the West sit back and let countries get picked off one by one until by the time they come for our territory there are no allies left that are able/willing to come to our collective defence?

 

[Quirky]

How long does the West sit back

You don't think Western Europe alone has the ability to fend off a Russian advance given how much of a paper tiger it's shown to be? Western Europe, along with Canada, can't keep relying on the US to come to its rescue. Under Trump this could very much be the new reality, Ukraine is just not worth it to them.

 

[Remius]

You don't think Western Europe alone has the ability to fend off a Russian advance given how much of a paper tiger it's shown to be? Western Europe, along with Canada, can't keep relying on the US to come to its rescue. Under Trump this could very much be the new reality, Ukraine is just not worth it to them.

While I agree that an unbalanced umbrella of protection exists, when has the US kept coming to our rescue?

 

[KevinB]

While I agree that an unbalanced umbrella of protection exists, when has the US kept coming to our rescue?

1812?

 

[Rudburg]

Pentagon update on the earlier ballistic missile launch. Russians provided advance notice before firing it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1859687101136294006

 

[MilEME09]

The fact, test or not that Russia is willing to launch a missile at a civilian city that could have been nuclear armed in response to attacks on military targets. Tells us all we needed to know about russian goals, the destruction of Ukraine.

I'd like to know what Russia told the US, was it hey we are doing a missile test don't think we are nuking you. Or was it hey we are launching a irbm into Ukraine but don't worry it has no warheads.

It also worries me that if they establish a pattern of doing this, it will take one missile to have multiple warheads for it to all change. Yet we will think oh it'd another dummy because the last 5 were.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Choices have consequences.

Yes, the Polish people, the Czechs, the Slovaks, the Balts, the Romanians, the Bulgarians, the Hungarians, and the most of the Ex-Yugo's all made the choice to turn towards NATO and ask to join that alliance. All of them had experience the Fraternal and Brotherly love and affection that the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics had paid them from 1945/48 to 1989 and yet....and yet they ALL choose to not stand along side of them after 1989. Why do you that is? Seriously, try and give an answer here.

 

[Quirky]

Yes, the Polish people, the Czechs, the Slovaks, the Balts, the Romanians, the Bulgarians, the Hungarians, and the most of the Ex-Yugo's all made the choice to turn towards NATO and ask to join that alliance. All of them had experience the Fraternal and Brotherly love and affection that the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics had paid them from 1945/48 to 1989 and yet....and yet they ALL choose to not stand along side of them after 1989. Why do you that is? Seriously, try and give an answer here.

I know why they didn't. It was their choice.

 

[MilEME09]

I know why they didn't. It was their choice.

And yet here you are blaming NATO for letting them join because they didn't want to be invaded by Russia, again.

 

[The Bread Guy]

There is nothing to suggest otherwise that this will be the eventual outcome. With Trump being elected the likelihood of Ukraine losing some of its land for any peace deal is high ...

And you wouldn't consider land now occupied by Russia in UKR, seized post-2014 and kept by USSR 2.0 as "taken"?

Or is this a version of "if they were abused, they MUST have brought it on themselves" rationale one sometimes hears in similar situations?

The fact, test or not that Russia is willing to launch a missile at a civilian city that could have been nuclear armed in response to attacks on military targets. Tells us all we needed to know about russian goals, the destruction of Ukraine.

100%

... I'd like to know what Russia told the US, was it hey we are doing a missile test don't think we are nuking you. Or was it hey we are launching a irbm into Ukraine but don't worry it has no warheads ...

Either way, I can only imagine the clenched sphincters huddled around our radar screens/big TV screens on the wall/whatever's in use these days if there was no such warning and someone pipes up with, "uh, we have an IRBM missile launch from Russia headed west."

(...)

• Ukrainian War of Independence (1917-1921)
• Kazakhstan Campaign (1917-1920)
• Finnish Civil War (1918)
• Sochi Conflict (1918-1919)
• Latvian War of Independence (1918-1920)
• Estonian War of Independence (1918-1920)
• Lithuanian-Soviet War (1918-1919)
• Georgian-Ossetian Conflict (1918-1920)
• Polish-Soviet War (1919-1921)
• Invasion of Azerbaijan (1920)
• Invasion of Armenia (1920)
• Invasion of Georgia (1921)
• Soviet intervention in Mongolia (1921)
• Urtatagai conflict w/Afghanistan (1925-1926)
• Sino-Soviet conflict (1929)
• Red Army intervention in Afghanistan (1929 & 1930)
• Soviet invasion of Xinjiang (1934)
• Soviet invasion of Poland (1939)
• Winter War w/Finland (1939-1940)
• Occupation and annexation of the Baltic States (1940)
• Soviet-Afgan War (1979-1989)
• South Ossetian War (1991-1992)
• War in Abkhazia (1992-1993)
• Transnistria War (1992)
• Tajikistani Civil War (1992-1997)
• Russo-Georgian War (2008)
• Invasion of Ukraine (2014-present) ...

Welcome to USSR 2.0: the land of a thousand "ceasefires"! Or, picking up on your list, from the master of satire ....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1859315208076001351

 

[MilEME09]

Either way, I can only imagine the clenched sphincters huddled around our radar screens/big TV screens on the wall/whatever's in use these days if there was no such warning and someone pipes up with, "uh, we have an IRBM missile launch from Russia headed west."

Oh it was a full brown alert, but now we wait for a response to this massive escalation

 

[Czech_pivo]

I know why they didn't. It was their choice.

Yes - it was their choice - they all chose to say 'Thanks but no thanks to Mother Russia.'

The moment that first East German went across the wall freely and saw all that was West Berlin, the gig was up.

Its the EXACT same with the Ukrainians. They see how well the Poles, Slovaks, Hungarians and Romanians are all doing when they cross the border into those countries over the last 30yrs and they wonder - in their own bigoted old world way, 'How the f*ck are the Poles, the 'Lakhi' (look up that word) better off than we are?' We controlled them for all those years but they are sooo much more richer than we are. And the Slovaks, those dumb peasants and those Asian Hungarians are as well.

When I lived/worked in Prague in '95 all of the construction work was done by migrant Ukrainians busting their ass off 7 days a week to send money home to Ukraine so their families wouldn't freeze their asses off in January because the glorious Soviet heating system in their shitty little 600sqft apartment wasn't working.

Putin is deathly afraid of a Ukraine that is part of the EU (and by default NATO) because a wealthy Ukraine will force Russians to acknowledge that they are dirt poor and really have so little.