The War in Ukraine

[brihard]

From my understanding it was loaded with a large unitary warhead of conventional explosives. Which doesn’t appear to have been (properly?) designed for re-entry.

The unitary large warhead concept was designed after the INF treaty was torn up. As loading the RS-26 with a much heavier warhead reduced its range to the Intermediate range.

The Russians have launched test warheads at Ukraine before, but not from a ICBM/IBM.

Is there any open source reporting about whether the ballistic missile shot actually had a functional warhead or otherwise achieved anything? And does this weapon have a CEP that makes a conventional warhead at all useful?

 

[MilEME09]

Is there any open source reporting about whether the ballistic missile shot actually had a functional warhead or otherwise achieved anything? And does this weapon have a CEP that makes a conventional warhead at all useful?

The estimated cep is 250m+ which makes it not useful for conventional warfighting

 

[KevinB]

The estimated cep is 250m+ which makes it not useful for conventional warfighting

I believe it is more like +/- 250m or around 500m for a 83%+ PER.

There isn’t a lot about it OS from what I can see, and that is for the MIRV’s not if used as a unitary device.

For a nuclear payload in the 100-500KT range it definitely will work, but given Russian bombardment of cities, even with a 5t conventional explosive payload it is going to kill and cause a lot of misery.

 

[GR66]

Is there any open source reporting about whether the ballistic missile shot actually had a functional warhead or otherwise achieved anything? And does this weapon have a CEP that makes a conventional warhead at all useful?

Looks like there could be some useful intel gained from the remains of the missile:

Emotional Putin decision grants Ukraine missile technology access

In a remarkable twist of events, critical components of Russia's new missile have fallen into Ukrainian hands, offering experts an unprecedented opportunity to study the latest technology deployed by Moscow. This comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Thursday that Russia had...

defence-blog.com

Also, from the article:

This comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Thursday that Russia had conducted a strike using a new “ballistic missile with a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead” targeting the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

So, Putin claims it carried a hypersonic warhead but I suspect that any warhead on an incoming ICBM would be hypersonic whether "functional" or just a test weight.

 

[brihard]

So, Putin claims it carried a hypersonic warhead but I suspect that any warhead on an incoming ICBM would be hypersonic whether "functional" or just a test weight.

Right. Anything reentering from exoatmospheric’s probably going to be moving a little quick. A hypersonic greenery vehicle is old hat, and is not the same thing as a hypersonic maneuverable cruise missile.

 

[Rudburg]

So, Putin claims it carried a hypersonic warhead but I suspect that any warhead on an incoming ICBM would be hypersonic whether "functional" or just a test weight.

Yes - it's a meaningless claim. ICBM or IRBM, velocity in the terminal phase is typically in the range of 5 or more miles per second. A warhead will go from space to impact in just a few seconds.

 

[The Bread Guy]

And, at long last ....

Canada’s donation of new air defence system arrives in Ukraine - Canada.ca

The Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, has announced that Canada’s donation of a National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) has arrived in Ukraine.

www.canada.ca

 

[daftandbarmy]

And, at long last ....

Canada’s donation of new air defence system arrives in Ukraine - Canada.ca

The Honourable Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence, has announced that Canada’s donation of a National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) has arrived in Ukraine.

www.canada.ca

The RCA looking on be like

 

[McG]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1859898337534562525

 

[Good2Golf]

Looks like there could be some useful intel gained from the remains of the missile:

Emotional Putin decision grants Ukraine missile technology access

In a remarkable twist of events, critical components of Russia's new missile have fallen into Ukrainian hands, offering experts an unprecedented opportunity to study the latest technology deployed by Moscow. This comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Thursday that Russia had...

defence-blog.com

Also, from the article:

So, Putin claims it carried a hypersonic warhead but I suspect that any warhead on an incoming ICBM would be hypersonic whether "functional" or just a test weight.

Right. Anything reentering from exoatmospheric’s probably going to be moving a little quick. A hypersonic greenery vehicle is old hat, and is not the same thing as a hypersonic maneuverable cruise missile.

Yup. Mach 5-10. Heck, even ATACMS approaches hypersonic velocities in its longer trajectories - Mach 3.5-4.

Hypersonic is used by some to instill irrational fear, with the implication being that it can’t be countered. That may be true to a large degree, but that isn’t something new.

Think about it…there have been hypersonic threats in the battle space for decades!

Eg. an APFSDS 120mm round fired from a current main battle tank has terminal velocity of ~1750m/s, which is…1750m/s = 3,914.639 mi/hr = Mach 5.10….hypersonic. So hypersonic weapons used for several decades already…nothing new.

 

[McG]

It is the combination of faster travel over the entirety of the flight and reduced detection range that causes concern vs other nuclear delivery vehicles.

Of course, our detection systems are farther North than Russia’s targets, and this picture assumes they are in the same place.

 

[Good2Golf]

Western tech leakage into RUS, IRN and NK weapons.

MSN
‘House of horrors’: Investigators discover what’s inside North Korean missile after deadly strike.

 

[RangerRay]

A great post on what’s at stake in Ukraine, with an interview between Deutsche Welle and HR McMaster.

It's time to call this World War III

If we don't wake up, we will lose.

claireberlinski.substack.com