The War in Ukraine

[Good2Golf]

Finland and Sweden in NATO is good I guess but does Russia care?

Finland’s admission to NATO really stuck in Putin’s craw…it was an own goal on his part for sure. St.Petersburg is close to becoming a write-off as a useful base, and Russia’s upper NW border is now ringed by NATO. He really does deserve NATO’s “Top Recruiter - 2024” award!

 

[KevinB]

Finland’s admission to NATO really stuck in Putin’s craw…it was an own goal on his part for sure. St.Petersburg is close to becoming a write-off as a useful base, and Russia’s upper NW border is now ringed by NATO. He really does deserve NATO’s “Top Recruiter - 2024” award!

Yup, pretty much guaranteed that any non alignment state will either:
1) join NATO,
2) pursue Nuclear Weapons as a deterrent, or
less playable options to the above being
A) bend the knee to Vlad and be a Russian Vassal state (see Belarus).
B) or get invaded by Russia

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Except he didn't write it. It was a ghost writer.

Donald Trump’s Ghostwriter Tells All

In “The Art of the Deal,” Tony Schwartz helped create the myth that Trump is a charming business genius. Now he calls him unfit to lead.

www.newyorker.com

So what?

Tons of books are written by ghost writers. That doesn't mean the information is bogus.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Have not seen this map before. Sets out a 20 year plan for absorbing Ukraine into NovoRussia

That said my 2¢ is that (1) a chunk of Kursk will still be in Ukrainian hands by mid January (2) Russia will gave gained another few thousand square km of fields, treelines and pulverized villages (3) Putin will not agee to negotiate under any of Trumps terms or conditions as he still thinks he has the upper hand (4) Ukraine will not agree to negotiate under any of Trumps terms or conditions as handing over hundreds of thousands of their citizens to the Russian Gulag and putting much more of Ukraine under direct fire control and effectively losing access to exports via the Black Sea

I am not sure how SK will react to the rapidly increasing level of human and equipment support to Russia by NK, or how Poland (and friends) will respond to assist an abandoned Ukraine but I highly doubt they will submit to Putins or Trumps plans for eastern Europe.

Never say never.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Finland’s admission to NATO really stuck in Putin’s craw…it was an own goal on his part for sure. St.Petersburg is close to becoming a write-off as a useful base, and Russia’s upper NW border is now ringed by NATO. He really does deserve NATO’s “Top Recruiter - 2024” award!

And then there's Georgia... Stalin's birthplace

Georgia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) enjoy cordial relations. Georgia is not currently a member of NATO, but has been promised by NATO to be admitted in the future.

Georgia–NATO relations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[quadrapiper]

Yup, pretty much guaranteed that any non alignment state will either:
1) join NATO,
2) pursue Nuclear Weapons as a deterrent, or
less playable options to the above being
A) bend the knee to Vlad and be a Russian Vassal state (see Belarus).
B) or get invaded by Russia

And A) seems sufficiently knife-edge (and now for a patron who doesn't have the depth of pre-war Russia) as to be fairly unappealing.

Who wants to be Europe's North Korea?

 

[Skysix]

And then there's Georgia... Stalin's birthplace

Georgia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) enjoy cordial relations. Georgia is not currently a member of NATO, but has been promised by NATO to be admitted in the future.

Georgia–NATO relations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"Maidan" 2.0 begins. If Ukraine releases the Georgian Legion volunteers (with personal weapons and some drones) and maybe some Iglas or higher altitude capable AA assets to take out glide bomb bombers this could become yet another front for Russia to cope with.

 

[Skysix]

"There are reports that Russian commanders have invented 4 Ukrainian ghost battalions, to account for losses.
Inventing enemy forces is a highly resourceful move, and it is likely to enter the permanent playbook for Russian high level commanders" (Pen2net@bsky.social)

 

[KevinB]

US will send Ukraine $725M in counter-drone tech, anti-personnel mines

President Biden has pledged to spend all of the military assistance funds Congress approved earlier this year for Ukraine before his administration ends.

www.militarytimes.com

President Joe Biden has pledged to spend all of the military assistance funds Congress approved earlier this year for Ukraine before the end of his administration on Jan. 20, which before Monday's news included about $7.1 billion in weapons that would be drawn from the Pentagon’s stockpiles.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Shame about that whole "no territorial disputes in play" thing before being able to join NATO.

Meanwhile, not everyone seems to be showing up to the party - or leaving early.

Desertion threatens to starve Ukraine's forces at a crucial time in its war with Russia

Some take medical leave and never return, haunted by the traumas of war and demoralized by bleak prospects for victory.

apnews.com

We get posts on the Halifax Buy and Sell Facebook page from Ukrainian fighting aged males who just arrived and are looking for work...

I always wonder why they aren't at home working to save their country... They could be bots...

 

[FJAG]

We get posts on the Halifax Buy and Sell Facebook page from Ukrainian fighting aged males who just arrived and are looking for work...

I always wonder why they aren't at home working to save their country... They could be bots...

Quick reality check. Approximately 2.7 million Americans saw service in Vietnam; 58,000 died; as of 1974 504,000 were deserters - 10 times the number that deserted from WW2 where more than 16 million Americans served.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Vietnam, the war itself, didn't pose an existential threat to the USA.

A very different conflict from the one in Ukraine.