The War in Ukraine

[Czech_pivo]

Another night, another hit on a Russian oil refinery, this time in Kirishi near St Petersburg. Heavy producer of gasoline and lighter motor oils, is Wikipedia’s correct.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1967033553801327071

Doesn’t really look like Russia’s very capable of defending any of its oil refineries within 1000km of Ukraine. I expect Ukraine is really trying to get to the point where the civilian population of the major cities in western Russia are feeling the pinch in terms of fuel shortages, to say nothing of hurting Russian exports and the foreign capital they bring.

I’m sure that if the Russians pull AD from elsewhere in Russia to protect said refineries in the current 1k km kill zone that Ukraine will pivot to something else and squeeze the Russians there.
It’s almost as if the Ukrainians might be getting ‘ideas’ from others on how to make the Russians hurt deeply quickly in order to influence the current media situation.

 

[MilEME09]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1967124547163001003

This AO is the Ukrainian 3 corp, who since they got organized as a corp, have been extremely successful. Now it appears they are successfully cutting up the russian lines in this area. If they can force a large surrender, it would be huge for Ukrainian morale.

 

[brihard]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1967124547163001003

This AO is the Ukrainian 3 corp, who since they got organized as a corp, have been extremely successful. Now it appears they are successfully cutting up the russian lines in this area. If they can force a large surrender, it would be huge for Ukrainian morale.

Is the area where the Russians made the significant narrow-axis advance a few weeks back, and there was some talk about whether Ukraine could/should/would try to pinch off the salient? There's ben a lot going on since then and I haven't kept up with it.

 

[HavokFour]

Flamingo production is well on it's way to ramping up. Fire Point has now secured a place to produce solid rocket fuel outside of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1967247533887181091

Ukrainians still very active inside Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1967177722037256534

Ouch. Definitely not as fun as those pop-up tunnels for kids.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1967246820100485417

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Is the area where the Russians made the significant narrow-axis advance a few weeks back, and there was some talk about whether Ukraine could/should/would try to pinch off the salient? There's ben a lot going on since then and I haven't kept up with it.

Yes it is

 

[RangerRay]

Ukraine’s increasingly effective ranged warfare on oil refineries and other targets, Russia attacks Poland with unarmed decoy drones (if meant for Ukraine, they would be armed; and if they were an accident, why didn’t any end up in also neighbouring Hungary or Slovakia?), and the US lifts sanctions on Russian puppet state to open a sanctions back door to Russia.

Weekend Update #150: Range, Range, Range

Also: Russia Attacks Poland; The USA Unilaterally Ends Some Sanctions

phillipspobrien.substack.com

 

[HavokFour]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1967124547163001003

This AO is the Ukrainian 3 corp, who since they got organized as a corp, have been extremely successful. Now it appears they are successfully cutting up the russian lines in this area. If they can force a large surrender, it would be huge for Ukrainian morale.

How about a sequel.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1967507739959058652

 

[Cloud Cover]

The Rafael is their nuclear delivery jet isn’t it?

It appears these 3 particular aircraft certainly from that very specific element of the French Air Force, although hopefully it’s unlikely they brought their nuclear weapons with them…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1967132059081596948

 

[KevinB]

It appears these 3 particular aircraft certainly from that very specific element of the French Air Force, although hopefully it’s unlikely they brought their nuclear weapons with them…

I would not be so sure, I would tend to bet that was a requirement for Poland's current level of restraint.