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Gee, drone debris sure cause a lot of damage.
The War in Ukraine
- Thread starter Bruce Monkhouse
- Start date
HavokFour
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HavokFour
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More fruit, time to hit the refineries even harder.
www.reuters.com
Exclusive: Russia close to cutting oil output due to drone attacks, sources say
Russia's oil pipeline monopoly Transneft has warned producers they may have to cut output following Ukraine's drone attacks on critical export ports and refineries, three industry sources said on Tuesday.
www.reuters.com
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Some interesting video and comments in this video
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High ground has always mattered!
HavokFour
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As of September 16, 2025.
Provided by @KHoholenko
This thread by Prune60 is a good read on the fuel situation. Notably, diesel has begun to spike in price.
Provided by @KHoholenko
This thread by Prune60 is a good read on the fuel situation. Notably, diesel has begun to spike in price.
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Begs the question as to why Yaroslavl hasn't been set ablaze yet as its certainly an outlier.As of September 16, 2025.
Provided by @KHoholenko
This thread by Prune60 is a good read on the fuel situation. Notably, diesel has begun to spike in price.
HavokFour
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It may be benefitting from Moscow (and it's AD) being in the path. Then again, the refinery in Moscow has been hit before so who knows.
Slavneft'-Yaroslavnefteorgsintez · Дом 130 Московский проспект ГСП, Yaroslavl, Yaroslavl Oblast, Russia, 150023
★★★★☆ · Oil refinery
www.google.com
EDIT: Correction, it's been targeted before but not successfully hit... yet. Handy map below.
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Moscow 'shielding' it very well might be what's saving it.It may be benefitting from Moscow (and it's AD) being in the path. Then again, the refinery in Moscow has been hit before so who knows.
Slavneft'-Yaroslavnefteorgsintez · Дом 130 Московский проспект ГСП, Yaroslavl, Yaroslavl Oblast, Russia, 150023
★★★★☆ · Oil refinery
EDIT: Correction, it's been targeted before but not successfully hit... yet. Handy map below.
daftandbarmy
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“Hard pounding this, gentleman; let's see who will pound the longest.”
- Arthur Wesley, 1st Duke of Wellington at the Battle of Waterloo.
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Have to wonder if he was thinking of his school days at Eton when he was saying that.
KevinB
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One wonders what the Russian pain point is.
Clearly it isn’t combat losses, whether this is a national pride issue, or the locations/types of recruits isn’t clear.
However with the significant punishment the Russia petroleum industry is taking, one wonders if this may be it. The petroleum exports both legitimate (frankly I’m appalled that they haven’t been 100% embargoed) and shadowy fleet operations are the only thing keeping the economy from utter collapse.
Because if the economy collapses any further, then we will see a near mirror to the conditions that lead to the overthrow of Tsar Nicholas. Tsar Vlad is a pretty solid student of history, and knows that. The question is what is his off route? At this point he can’t just pack up the fam and do a runner to a non extradition country, as Ukraine will go Israeli to get him.
Clearly it isn’t combat losses, whether this is a national pride issue, or the locations/types of recruits isn’t clear.
However with the significant punishment the Russia petroleum industry is taking, one wonders if this may be it. The petroleum exports both legitimate (frankly I’m appalled that they haven’t been 100% embargoed) and shadowy fleet operations are the only thing keeping the economy from utter collapse.
Because if the economy collapses any further, then we will see a near mirror to the conditions that lead to the overthrow of Tsar Nicholas. Tsar Vlad is a pretty solid student of history, and knows that. The question is what is his off route? At this point he can’t just pack up the fam and do a runner to a non extradition country, as Ukraine will go Israeli to get him.
Maxman1
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18 Russian officers killed in sabotage attack in Ukraine's south, Kyiv claims
Unknown individuals set fire to dry grass near the Russian army’s command post near the village of Voskresenka on Aug. 30, the Ukrainian project "I Want to Live" said. The fire reportedly quickly spread to buildings and dugouts at the site.
kyivindependent.com
daftandbarmy
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Time to double down...
The Case for War: Why the West Should Double Down in Ukraine
History shows that long-term conflicts tend to work to the underdog’s advantage, and defeat often has dramatic consequences for the aggressor. That’s why the West, Europe in particular, should dramatically expand military aid to Ukraine.The West’s best chance of bolstering Kyiv and significantly weakening Russia over time is through a doubling down of Western assistance to Ukraine, even if Washington takes a back seat. Assuming the United States maintains its in-kind intelligence support for Ukraine even as it curtails or ends military, financial, and humanitarian assistance, Europe will need to expand significantly on what it has provided to date.
According to the Kiel Institute, nearly all the roughly $133 billion (€114.6 billion) the United States has provided to Ukraine from late January 2022 through late June 2025 has come in the form of military assistance (56 percent) and financial aid (40 percent). The military support is obviously critical for arming, protecting, and sustaining Ukrainian troops on the battlefield, and here US assistance has averaged $22 billion (€19 billion) annually. Given that European countries have cumulatively provided, on a bilateral basis, just over $27 billion (€23.5 billion) annually to date, they will need to essentially double current levels of military assistance to backfill American aid and thereby keep Ukrainian forces operating at or slightly above their current pace.
Of course, Kyiv needs to do its part as well, principally by strengthening its manpower resources. Although Russian casualties have been staggering, Moscow still maintains a manpower advantage over Ukraine. To mitigate this, Kyiv should both lower the conscription age further, to 23, and expand enlistment incentives for those not compelled by law to join. Doing so will be politically difficult for Kyiv, but dramatically expanded Western aid will signal a long-term commitment to Ukraine’s security and could go far in easing the political challenges.
Preventing a Russian victory by tying Moscow down in a quagmire of the Kremlin’s making is likely to continue to deplete Russian resources, inhibit Moscow’s ability to horizontally escalate elsewhere in Europe, weaken Putin’s position domestically, erode a key partner of China (and Iran), and undermine Russia’s long-term ability to threaten Western interests.
The Case for War: Why the West Should Double Down in Ukraine
History shows that long-term conflicts tend to work to the underdog’s advantage, and defeat often has dramatic consequences for the aggressor. That’s why the West, Europe in particular, should dramatically expand military aid to Ukraine.
ip-quarterly.com
HavokFour
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Paul brought up a very important point in his most recent video regarding the infrastructure strikes, many of the refineries and those that were successfully struck were already producing less or completely paused production to start the switchover for winter mix production. This is going to get a lot worse for Russia.
Nato intercepts Russian warplanes violating Estonian airspace
Estonia says three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets remained in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes.
www.bbc.com
Another accidental incursion?
Nato intercepts Russian warplanes violating Estonian airspace
Estonia says three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets remained in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes.
www.bbc.com
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