Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

[Edward Campbell]

My guess, and that's all it is but I think it's a reasonable one, is that Prime Minister Trudeau prorogues parliament later this fall and, early in 2025 announces his retirement and a Liberal Party leadership convention.

He will have been PM during 10 calendar years - 2015-2025 - about 3300 days, which will be less than he wanted, less than his father (4,000+ days in his first tern) and less than Stephen Harper (3,500 + days) - but more than many other PMs. I suspect those kinds of numbers actually matter to him on a personal level. He idolized his father and I think he detested Harper almost as much as he detests Poilievre.

Another guess: He knows that Freeland is even less likely to lead the Liberals to anything other than third party status than he is but he fears that Mark Carney might be able to do what he knows he cannot: hold Pierre Poilievre to a narrow majority or even a minority.
Pierre Poilievre really, really wants to run against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau; M Poilievre knows he can win a tub thumping majority against M Trudeau and humiliate him and his party. He is unafraid of Freeland or LeBlanc or any other currently serving Liberal minister, but Carney is an unknown quantity.
My 2¢.

 

[daftandbarmy]

My guess, and that's all it is but I think it's a reasonable one, is that Prime Minister Trudeau prorogues parliament later this fall and, early in 2025 announces his retirement and a Liberal Party leadership convention.

He will have been PM during 10 calendar years - 2015-2025 - about 3300 days, which will be less than he wanted, less than his father (4,000+ days in his first tern) and less than Stephen Harper (3,500 + days) - but more than many other PMs. I suspect those kinds of numbers actually matter to him on a personal level. He idolized his father and I think he detested Harper almost as much as he detests Poilievre.

Another guess: He knows that Freeland is even less likely to lead the Liberals to anything other than third party status than he is but he fears that Mark Carney might be able to do what he knows he cannot: hold Pierre Poilievre to a narrow majority or even a minority.
Pierre Poilievre really, really wants to run against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau; M Poilievre knows he can win a tub thumping majority against M Trudeau and humiliate him and his party. He is unafraid of Freeland or LeBlanc or any other currently serving Liberal minister, but Carney is an unknown quantity.
My 2¢.

Too bad he's so boring. Probably better off as a finance minister, if anything....

https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/mli-files/pdf/MLIInsidePolicy/December2012/Carney.pdf

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I don't like Carney. I just don't trust him to do what's right for the country.

I think, because trudeau introduced him and is facilitating his rise in the party (government), he has the mark of Cain upon him already.

That, and I don't think Carney is ready to suck hind tit for eight years as a minority leader. His aloof, conceited ego is rivaled only by that of trudeau's.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I'm neutral to slightly positive on Carney. He was an excellent central banker, in both Canada and the UK; maybe on of the world's monetary policy superstars - boring as sh!t but vitally important.

He has a huge brain and really big league - way bigger than PM Trudeau or M Poilievre - experience in Wall Street and in the corridors of global power.

He is committed to climate change as an issue - maybe overcommitted, in my opinion, for Canada which is responsible for < 2% of GHG emissions.

 

[Quirky]

He is committed to climate change as an issue - maybe overcommitted, in my opinion, for Canada which is responsible for < 2% of GHG emissions.

Climate change is an issue, but one we must be prepared and adapt to as a species. Believing that we can control atmospheric rivers, blizzards, heat waves and forest fires by increasing taxes is utter stupidity and borderline mental retardation.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... I don't think Carney is ready to suck hind tit for eight years as a minority leader ...

He didn't throw his line into the water to take the second place trophy, for sure.

Meanwhile, a bit about "the letter" ...

B.C. Liberal MP Weiler read a letter to Trudeau and caucus on behalf of dissenting MPs, calling for the prime minister’s resignation

One Liberal MP described the meeting as ‘the first time we've had a caucus meeting where people actually spoke their mind.’

www.hilltimes.com

... with a bit of the (alleged) math

Two-term B.C. Liberal MP Patrick Weiler read out a letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the party’s national caucus meeting on Oct. 23, telling the full Liberal caucus that 24 MPs have signed the document calling for the leader’s resignation by Oct. 28, according to Liberal sources.

Weiler (West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, B.C.), who was unavailable for an interview by deadline, was the first speaker at the highly anticipated Oct. 23 Liberal national caucus meeting. The letter was later handed over to Trudeau (Papineau, Que.). The document contained only the text of the letter, but not the signatures of the 24 dissident MPs.

According to MPs present at the meeting, the letter conveyed the views of constituents who want a change in leadership, and the MPs expressed their hope for a response from the prime minister by Oct. 28.

In interviews with The Hill Times, some dissenting MPs stated that they have not yet decided on their course of action if the prime minister does not step down by next week. For now, they said, it is up to each of the 24 MPs who signed the letter to determine their individual responses. Overall, sources present at the meeting described the tone as very respectful, with some saying that, compared to meetings held over the past number of years, this felt like a true caucus meeting.

“This is the best caucus we’ve had, just how caucus should always be,” said a Liberal MP, who spoke on not for attribution basis as all caucus meetings are confidential. “There were a number of people who said, ‘You know, everyone who has spoken up today should be applauded for the courage.’ And this is exactly what it was. The first time we’ve had a caucus meeting where people actually spoke their mind.”

Two sources from the dissenting group of MPs said that around 50 MPs spoke at the meeting, with about 25 of them urging Trudeau to step down.

“If 24 people sign a letter, you have to expect that 50 people are thinking [what the letter says],” said the MP.

Some of the MPs who openly called for Trudeau’s resignation at the meeting are Weiler, Yvan Baker (Etobicoke Centre, Ont.), Wayne Long (Saint John—Rothesay, N.B.), George Chahal (Calgary Skyview, Alta.), Sameer Zuberi (Sameer Zuberi, Alta.), Ali Ehsassi (Willowdale, Ont.), Parm Bains (Steveston-Richmond East, B.C.), and Ken McDonald (Avalon, Nfld.).

Some of the MPs who spoke in favour of Trudeau remaining as party leader include Health Minister Mark Holland (Ajax, Ont.), and Liberal MPs Yasir Naqvi (Ottawa Centre, Ont.), Taleeb Noormohamed (Vancouver Granville, B.C.), Chandra Arya (Nepean, Ont.), Sukh Dhaliwal (Surrey—Newton, B.C.), and Adam Van Koeverden (Milton, Ont.) ...

Also archived here and here in case original link doesn't work.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Putting a finance whiz in as PM might not be much more useful than putting in former CAF officers as MNDs. The position is served better if the incumbent has breadth of knowledge, not focused expertise.

 

[Edward Campbell]

If someone without a ten years record off fiscal failures and with a really credible record in finance said "I have a plan to build an environmentally responsible economy that lowers your taxes, starting next year, AND builds affordable houses for our kids and grandkids, AND, over the next 10 years, balances the budget," I just might want to vote for her or him.

 

[ArmyRick]

Mark Carney leading the LPC will be similar to Michael Ignatieff when he lead. The 80-90% will find him unrelatable.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Mark Carney leading the LPC will be similar to Michael Ignatieff when he lead. The 80-90% will find him unrelatable.

Really good and HUGELY important point; reading the Good Grey Globe's Report on Business or the WSJ and the FT are NOT qualifications for voting in .

 

[Fishbone Jones]

If someone without a ten years record off fiscal failures and with a really credible record in finance said "I have a plan to build an environmentally responsible economy that lowers your taxes, starting next year, AND builds affordable houses for our kids and grandkids, AND, over the next 10 years, balances the budget," I just might want to vote for her or him.

But isn't that what PP is already offering?

 

[Edward Campbell]

But isn't that what PP is already offering?

Yes, he is, but does he have a "a really credible record in finance ?"

He's been a MP for 20 years, since he was 25, before that he was campaign organizer for Stockwell Day.

 

[ArmyRick]

Yes, he is, but does he have a "a really credible record in finance ?"

He's been a MP for 20 years, since he was 25, before that he was campaign organizer for Stockwell Day.

From my understanding (not fact) is Pierre P will talk to experts and people knowledgeable in their respective fields and forms his ideas from that. Any great leader can lead and does not need a PhD in finances, medicine, chemistry, geography, etc, but if they listen to the experts and formulate good plans from that, it can be a great recipe for success.

 

[ArmyRick]

Yes, he is, but does he have a "a really credible record in finance ?"

He's been a MP for 20 years, since he was 25, before that he was campaign organizer for Stockwell Day.

His university degree (I assume batchelors) is from U of Calgary in International Relations

 

[Remius]

From my understanding (not fact) is Pierre P will talk to experts and people knowledgeable in their respective fields and forms his ideas from that. Any great leader can lead and does not need a PhD in finances, medicine, chemistry, geography, etc, but if they listen to the experts and formulate good plans from that, it can be a great recipe for success.

Not trying to pick a fight here but the narrative I hear from some quarters on the right is that “experts” are something that is no longer trusted.

Are there experts currently advising him and who are they? Honest question as I haven’t dived in to it to know.

 

[Remius]

A basic understanding of finance would suffice.

His proclamations on crypto currency, the bank of Canada and what is causing inflation indicates a lack in my opinion. Or at least a perception of that.

I will concede though that those positions may be for politics and a populist approach and not how he might truly grasp finance.

 

[dimsum]

Mark Carney leading the LPC will be similar to Michael Ignatieff when he lead. The 80-90% will find him unrelatable.

On the other hand, someone without dramatics and just leading based on policy may be what people want to see after the elections in the US and here.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Yes, he is, but does he have a "a really credible record in finance ?"

He's been a MP for 20 years, since he was 25, before that he was campaign organizer for Stockwell Day.

I'm not sure that's a qualifier in of and itself. Carney wants the IMF to impose rules on crypto. He's in favour of a world wide digital currency designed and run by the world central bank. There are other programs and practices of his I find distasteful.

I don't like the idea of a faceless, global financial entity changing the way I save and spend my money. They would have carte blanche. At least my faceless banks can still be held to account if they lose a single penny of my money and if not satisfied, I can go and take my physical cash from them.

I watched an exchange between Carney and PP some time ago and am somewhat fuzzy on detail. However, from recollection, PP took Carney to task and put him behind the 8 ball more than once while Carney tried changing the channel and was visibly uncomfortable with Poliviere's questioning.

In 20 years, and from what I've seen, PP has an excellent enough knowledge of government finances and practices to satisfy that particular point on my checklist.

But that’s just me, and while I've managed my affairs to where I am financially secure in my old age, I'm neither a financial planner, economist or accountant.

 

[QV]

Not trying to pick a fight here but the narrative I hear from some quarters on the right is that “experts” are something that is no longer trusted.

Are there experts currently advising him and who are they? Honest question as I haven’t dived in to it to know.

Sort of. But I think the sentiment is really that experts cannot be trusted when they clash with common sense. Or also when certain experts are cherry picked and other experts are cancelled.

 

[Kirkhill]

Those same MPs can vote in opposition to their party in the house. Put up or shut up I say.

That would be a very welcome development. If it happened then Trudeau would have done singular service to Canada. He would have demoted the Party and restored Parliament.