Trump administration 2024-2028

[Brad Sallows]

If you want to pretend this event exists in a frictionless vacuum, and not in the larger context of Trump constantly pushing boundaries on how he can wield federal executive power and try to stomp on the independence of institutions and other levels of government, go nuts. It’s disingenuous as hell, but have at ‘er.

Of course he's pushing boundaries. How often have I written here that boundary-pushing by other people was going to lead to more boundary-pushing? That score-settling will lead to more score-settling? I'm not pretending it's in a frictionless vacuum; I repeatedly stress that how people behave politically sets the tone for future behaviour. "Frictionless vacuum" better describes people who thought it was okey-dokey when prior administrations pushed boundaries as if they enjoyed a unique right to do so without consequences, as if the other players would also never use the same tactics for political advantage. As Mitch McConnell said on a particular matter, "You'll regret this, and you may regret this a lot sooner than you think." The shorter popular version is "FAFO".

Anyone learn anything yet, I wonder? I suspect Democrats will have to suffer good and hard for a long while yet. Strap in, the administration is not even 6 months old. Trump is going to (successfully) goad a lot more people into dropping their masks, and every time that happens it'll give his popularity a bump.

 

[KevinB]

Of course he's pushing boundaries. How often have I written here that boundary-pushing by other people was going to lead to more boundary-pushing? That score-settling will lead to more score-settling? I'm not pretending it's in a frictionless vacuum; I repeatedly stress that how people behave politically sets the tone for future behaviour. "Frictionless vacuum" better describes people who thought it was okey-dokey when prior administrations pushed boundaries as if they enjoyed a unique right to do so without consequences, as if the other players would also never use the same tactics for political advantage. As Mitch McConnell said on a particular matter, "You'll regret this, and you may regret this a lot sooner than you think." The shorter popular version is "FAFO".

Anyone learn anything yet, I wonder? I suspect Democrats will have to suffer good and hard for a long while yet. Strap in, the administration is not even 6 months old. Trump is going to (successfully) goad a lot more people into dropping their masks, and every time that happens it'll give his popularity a bump.

Brad, I think you are missing the Venn Diagram where a significant portion the MAGA supporters are diametrically opposed to US Military personnel conducting operations (even physically site security if it is off post ) CONUS.

This is where you get things like the Army of Texas and California…
Because no one at the grass roots actually likes Fed Gov overreach even when it’s against the other side.

 

[lenaitch]

I don’t think he fully understands the ramifications of that a lot of things.

Better.

*****

Day-one riots/protests are handled by on duty law enforcement. Stretching into subsequent days it becomes a mutual aid, re-scheduling re-deployment leadership issue. LA County has about 24.300 municipal sworn members and deputies, not counting surrounding counties and CHP. I think only the Trump administration has said they are overwhelmed. Then again, this is the same bunch that wanted to withhold federal disaster aid to California until they changed their Democrat ways.

 

[brihard]

Brad, I think you are missing the Venn Diagram where a significant portion the MAGA supporters are diametrically opposed to US Military personnel conducting operations (even physically site security if it is off post ) CONUS.

This is where you get things like the Army of Texas and California…
Because no one at the grass roots actually likes Fed Gov overreach even when it’s against the other side.

Ooh, I don’t know Kev. A lot of people seem perfectly prepared to not just excuse but to encourage fed government overreach if ‘the other’ it’s levied against are different enough from them. I absolutely know there are a lot of very patriotic (and some, frankly, quite radical) strict constitutionalists. However, the MAGA movement seems to have an abundance of lickspittles who will cheer on (so far) just about anything their side cares to throw at people or groups they oppose. I think it would be pretty easy to find a fair number of people willing to extend some of the current anti-immigrant excesses to politically opposed citizens, or to increase further still the excesses used against immigrants. I see no reason to think the American population is any less susceptible than any other to the mass and sudden expressions of very violent hate that recent history has seen elsewhere.

Every new excess is a test of “what can we get away with this week, and how can we prime the pump for the next little step?”

 

[KevinB]

Ooh, I don’t know Kev. A lot of people seem perfectly prepared to not just excuse but to encourage fed government overreach if ‘the other’ it’s levied against are different enough from them. I absolutely know there are a lot of very patriotic (and some, frankly, quite radical) strict constitutionalists. However, the MAGA movement seems to have an abundance of lickspittles who will cheer on (so far) just about anything their side cares to throw at people or groups they oppose. I think it would be pretty easy to find a fair number of people willing to extend some of the current anti-immigrant excesses to politically opposed citizens, or to increase further still the excesses used against immigrants. I see no reason to think the American population is any less susceptible than any other to the mass and sudden expressions of very violent hate that recent history has seen elsewhere.

Every new excess is a test of “what can we get away with this week, and how can we prime the pump for the next little step?”

He’s losing a lot of right wing veterans groups.
Those are the folks that will matter if things get uglier. Keep in mind we have a lot of Philippine, and Latin American veterans.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Brad, I think you are missing the Venn Diagram where a significant portion the MAGA supporters are diametrically opposed to US Military personnel conducting operations (even physically site security if it is off post ) CONUS.

I'm aware. I'm also aware that nothing Trump is doing right now is really eating into his popularity. I'm still waiting for tariffs to create enough dissatisfaction to matter; I thought a couple of months of higher prices would be enough. I, in company with many, have underestimated the depth and scope of "pissed-off" after what has happened the past 8 years. I read about it and I can see the US from their viewpoints, but words on a screen don't convey the level of anger at the lies, hypocrisy, double standards, self-dealing, anarcho-tyranny, etc. No sooner does one pain point recede than another emerges. Recently it was media trying to run away from their appalling irresponsible collusion in obfuscating Biden's infirmity. Now it's attempts to hinder immigration enforcement. Few at whom the anger is directed ever apologize or offer meaningful concessions; instead, they try to defend or squirm away from every shitty thing they and the politicians they support ever did - they fight every battle.

That anger buys Trump latitude when he does things even some of his supporters would ordinarily reject. This is obvious. It would be easy to fix. But they don't.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Day-one riots/protests are handled by on duty law enforcement. Stretching into subsequent days it becomes a mutual aid, re-scheduling re-deployment leadership issue. LA County has about 24.300 municipal sworn members and deputies, not counting surrounding counties and CHP. I think only the Trump administration has said they are overwhelmed.

The federals can only be overwhelmed if they are understaffed and unsupported by locals. Local support depends on mayors and governors. There can be a wide range of effectiveness, from work-to-rule to spirit-of-the-letter.

There's an important factor that people may be overlooking. If US policy resembles ours, once the federal authority commits armed services they can't be seen to fail. Whether or not early deployment was done to force this requirement, it is nevertheless in effect.

A rational thing to do would be for locals to always support federals, to pre-empt this kind of situation from ever arising.

 

[KevinB]

The federals can only be overwhelmed if they are understaffed and unsupported by locals. Local support depends on mayors and governors. There can be a wide range of effectiveness, from work-to-rule to spirit-of-the-letter.

There's an important factor that people may be overlooking. If US policy resembles ours, once the federal authority commits armed services they can't be seen to fail. Whether or not early deployment was done to force this requirement, it is nevertheless in effect.

A rational thing to do would be for locals to always support federals, to pre-empt this kind of situation from ever arising.

Ever since the end of the Civil War theoretically settled Federal supremacy, State’s have been trying to push their autonomy as far as they can.

Some states are diametrically opposed to Federal powers, either due to political differences, or just because they’re naturally bent towards independence or individuality.

 

[Eaglelord17]

He’s losing a lot of right wing veterans groups.
Those are the folks that will matter if things get uglier. Keep in mind we have a lot of Philippine, and Latin American veterans.

I never understood how he had veterans groups on his side to begin with. The man is anti-military to the core. Insulting combat vets, very likely faked his medical to avoid doing his service in Vietnam, pardoning war criminals and then ordering the military to take them back, etc.

 

[QV]

I never understood how he had veterans groups on his side to begin with. The man is anti-military to the core. Insulting combat vets, very likely faked his medical to avoid doing his service in Vietnam, pardoning war criminals and then ordering the military to take them back, etc.

You get the daily award for incorrect takes.

I guess if you believed every media lie since 2016 it would make sense you have this view.

 

[Haggis]

Having seen only a grainy photo of the LEO in the background who fired the round, I was unsure what agency he belonged to when I looked through CA Penal Code as to who § 835a applied. The reporting since id him as LAPD. However my perusal of the code brought this to my attention.

Form what I've been able to find, CA municipal police are all in blue, while SD and CHP are all in tan uniforms.

"830.85. Notwithstanding any other law, United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers and United States Customs and Border Protection officers are not California peace officers."

Similar to here where, for example, under the Aviation Security Regulations 2012 (SOR 2011-318) CBSA BSOs are only considered to be peace officers while conducting immigration functions, but not customs. This precludes them from being armed as a matter of course in most major airport terminals, where immigration activities are conducted, but not on the aprons where customs activities are conducted. Confusing? Yes, in a very Canadian way.

The specific exclusion of ICE and CPB dates from 2017.

California Bans ICE From Masquerading as Police Officers

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (CN) – California Gov. Jerry Brown signed a bill Monday barring federal authorities from presenting themselves as law enforcement officers in the Golden State. Assemblyman Ash Kalra, D-San Jose, wrote the bill, Assembly Bill 1440, in hopes of reducing unethical tactics by...

www.courthousenews.com

Their exclusion is different from the example I cited above as it is retaliatory against Trump whereas ours is a carry over from before CBSA was armed (or even came into being, with the split functions of Canada Customs and Immigration Canada being merged only in 2003).

 

[brihard]

Form what I've been able to find, CA municipal police are all in blue, while SD and CHP are all in tan uniforms.

Similar to here where, for example, under the Aviation Security Regulations 2012 (SOR 2011-318) CBSA BSOs are only considered to be peace officers while conducting immigration functions, but not customs. This precludes them from being armed as a matter of course in most major airport terminals, where immigration activities are conducted, but not on the aprons where customs activities are conducted. Confusing? Yes, in a very Canadian way.

Their exclusion is different from the example I cited above as it is retaliatory against Trump whereas ours is a carry over from before CBSA was armed (or even came into being, with the split functions of Canada Customs and Immigration Canada being merged only in 2003).

Or how MPs, RCMP, CN/CP rail police are all ‘peace officers’ for federal statutes, but don’t have provincial statute authority in Ontario for, eg, traffic offences, mental health act, etc. Nor do they come under provincial oversight for misconduct complaints, or serious injury use of force situations. No surprise there are similar divides in the U.S.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Protesters allegedly throwing rocks and heavy objects at police from a roof top.

This fella takes some kind of less lethal round to the face.
Link

 

[brihard]

Protesters allegedly throwing rocks and heavy objects at police from a roof top.

This fella takes some kind of less lethal round to the face.
Link

Oof. Maybe a 40mm sponge round? But basically you don’t want any of those options in the face.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Protesters allegedly throwing rocks and heavy objects at police from a roof top.

This fella takes some kind of less lethal round to the face.
Link

Definitely a FAFO moment... and a damned good shot IMHO

 

[Haggis]

Or how MPs, RCMP, CN/CP rail police are all ‘peace officers’ for federal statutes, but don’t have provincial statute authority in Ontario for, eg, traffic offences, mental health act, etc. Nor do they come under provincial oversight for misconduct complaints, or serious injury use of force situations. No surprise there are similar divides in the U.S.

Rail Police have limited geographical jurisdiction at present to within 500 metres of railway owned property and right of way. Transport Canada has put forth a proposed change to the Railway Safety Act to extend their jurisdiction province wide within the province in which the constable is employed.

CP Police, now Canadian Pacific/Kansas City Police are a special animal as they are employed in both CA and the US.

 

[KevinB]

You get the daily award for incorrect takes.

I guess if you believed every media lie since 2016 it would make sense you have this view.

Well I wouldn’t suggest your take is significantly better.

The biggest issue is that ‘Veterans’ is a huge group down here, and there are subsets of they population that have little overlap outside of the one common bond of service.

The other issue is DJT himself jumps all around issues so at times one will be supporting him, and then even potentially on the same issue vilifying him.

It’s clear that combat wounded members especially amputees make POTUS47 very uncomfortable, and at times he says and does things that are offensive and worse.
He then does something to help them and…

 

[RangerRay]

Definitely a FAFO moment... and a damned good shot IMHO

If that officer can articulate that the guy holding a cell phone and not doing anything else was posing a threat of grievous bodily harm or death to the officer or others. I’m guessing that’s going to be a stretch.

It seems there are some LEOs down there who are banking on a presidential pardon for excessive force.

 

[ModlrMike]

You can probably bet that head shots, even with less-than-lethal rounds, are not sanctioned by any police force. I would suggest that a head shot could transform the round from less-than-letal into lethal quite quickly.

 

[brihard]

You can probably bet that head shots, even with less-than-lethal rounds, are not sanctioned by any police force. I would suggest that a head shot could transform the round from less-than-letal into lethal quite quickly.

It certainly can. Less lethal training emphasizes aim points. But sometimes you miss.