Trump administration 2024-2028

[KevinB]

To be fair the Dems sent out signals they were not serious about illegal immigration and that creates a belief that they will be more likley to be successful entering and working in the US.

Under 46, I would partially agree, I wouldn’t under 44.

Let’s look back to the founding of the USA, and what the inscription plaque has in it…

That said simply to reflect on that America is a nation of immigrants, who came here to find a better life for themselves and their families.

I came here as a legal immigrant, I had a US citizen wife, and had a job lined up. It was extremely expensive (in excess of 20k at the time) to get an immigration lawyer, and complete all the documentation. I feel for all the people in Mexico, the central and southern Americas as they don’t have a job lined up, and for the most part are strictly trying to better their lives and those of their loved ones.

There needs to be some sort of sustainable solution that involves a pathway to citizenship for those in the country illegally. Firstly to document them, tax them, and find a gateway that has broad appeal to Americans in a manner to give a naturalization path. One that is fair to all, and not extremely burdensome to the country or the individuals. Plus a better way to control the border than mass camps and domestic ICE raids that are clearly unconstitutional.

Of course the fringes of both sides like to use the immigration card as a wedge.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Not a Border Security or Immigration SME. But, based on my travel experiences in Japan, what QV says makes sense to me.

As a Gaijin, you carry your Passport, or Resident Card, on your person - at all times.

Not a copy. Not a photo.. Police, in uniform or plainclothes, routinely, on the street, examine your physical Landing Sticker on Demand.

Japanese police can also stop you for a quick frisk and search and ask a few questions.

Cooperation might lead to a quicker resolution. Police can prolong the interaction if you are not.

That's a bit of a false equivalence though; Japan has an incredibly homogenous population, and very tight controls on work visas and tourists.

The US has always been a mixed population of First Nations, immigrants, slaves, and Mexicans who became Americans when the borders changed. Their internal economy is also heavily reliant on cheap labour, so illegal immigrants, prison labour, and similar all play into the previous lower costs of living compared to the wealth (until you get sick and need to go to a doctor or hospital).

They are also only selectively enforcing this, and deliberately keeping away from farms employing illegal immigrants, which now gives landowners a lot of coercive power over those workers, so very hypocritical (especailly when a lot of them pay taxes).

 

[Czech_pivo]

That's a bit of a false equivalence though; Japan has an incredibly homogenous population, and very tight controls on work visas and tourists.

The US has always been a mixed population of First Nations, immigrants, slaves, and Mexicans who became Americans when the borders changed. Their internal economy is also heavily reliant on cheap labour, so illegal immigrants, prison labour, and similar all play into the previous lower costs of living compared to the wealth (until you get sick and need to go to a doctor or hospital).

They are also only selectively enforcing this, and deliberately keeping away from farms employing illegal immigrants, which now gives landowners a lot of coercive power over those workers, so very hypocritical (especailly when a lot of them pay taxes).

Add the Hospitality sector and home cleaning staff/nannies to the mix as well.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Under 46, I would partially agree, I wouldn’t under 44.

Let’s look back to the founding of the USA, and what the inscription plaque has in it…

That said simply to reflect on that America is a nation of immigrants, who came here to find a better life for themselves and their families.

I came here as a legal immigrant, I had a US citizen wife, and had a job lined up. It was extremely expensive (in excess of 20k at the time) to get an immigration lawyer, and complete all the documentation. I feel for all the people in Mexico, the central and southern Americas as they don’t have a job lined up, and for the most part are strictly trying to better their lives and those of their loved ones.

There needs to be some sort of sustainable solution that involves a pathway to citizenship for those in the country illegally. Firstly to document them, tax them, and find a gateway that has broad appeal to Americans in a manner to give a naturalization path. One that is fair to all, and not extremely burdensome to the country or the individuals. Plus a better way to control the border than mass camps and domestic ICE raids that are clearly unconstitutional.

Of course the fringes of both sides like to use the immigration card as a wedge.

I am in full agreement with you on the proposed solutions.

Weening people and companies off of cheap illegal labour is going to be difficult. I noticed that most Airbnb down in the US depend on Hispanic cleaners, likley all working under the table for cash. Prices will have to go up or a lot of Airbnb close if that labour disappears, or goes above the table in a legal manner.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I am in full agreement with you on the proposed solutions.

Weening people and companies off of cheap illegal labour is going to be difficult. I noticed that most Airbnb down in the US depend on Hispanic cleaners, likley all working under the table for cash. Prices will have to go up or a lot of Airbnb close if that labour disappears, or goes above the table in a legal manner.

Difficult? Probably economically suicidal...

Geographic Concentration of Immigrants in Construction

More than half of the 3 million immigrant construction workers reside in the four most populous states in the U.S. See more on the geographical concentration of immigrants in the construction workforce.

www.nahb.org

 

[FJAG]

Let’s look back to the founding of the USA, and what the inscription plaque has in it…

This.

Long before that plaque was put up, immigration and opposition to immigration were a thing, not just the US but all of the Americas.

Nativism, essentially has an established group with power resisting the introduction of another group in large numbers which have the potential to weaken the power structure of the existing group.

Nativism existed in the US almost from the very start because the US, like Canada, needed immigrants in huge quantities to expand westward. Virtually every group, from Germans to Irish to Catholics (regardless of country of origin) were vilified from time-to-time. Conversely, black people were welcome - as long as they were slaves. And there has been a wink, wink, nudge, nudge approach to brown folks over the years especially in industries where the white poor won't work. Interestingly, many of those Hispanics owned much of the property in the SW where they now work until illegal American expansionism and a war wrested the territories from Mexico in the 1830s and 40s.

More interestingly, it takes 2.1 live births per female to sustain the population of a country over time. Back in the 1800s that the live birth rate dropped from 7.0 to 3.9. It steadily dropped thereafter reaching a low of 1.8 in 1980 and then grew slightly then fell again by 2020 to 1.6. In short, that is not enough live births per women to sustain the US population. The issue here too touches on race. By 2020 the live birth rate for non-Hispanic white women was 1.55; for non-Hispanic blacks 1.71; for Hispanics 1.88.

The simple math here is that yes, at those rates, Hispanics and blacks share of the population will grow larger than non-Hispanic whites. BUT, without immigration the net population of the US will still drop.

I agree totally that a country needs to control its immigration. The problem for the US's race-based immigration attitude is that the vast bulk of immigrants are those that meet the Statue of Liberty's inscription:

"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door"

and who inevitably come from what Trump refers to as "shithole countries" and who can't afford to bribe their way in for a US$5 million gold card.

 

[Lumber]

To be fair the Dems sent out signals they were not serious about illegal immigration and that creates a belief that they will be more likley to be successful entering and working in the US. To put it into perspective, Canada would need to have over 1 million illegals to feel what the US is feeling on the subject and look at how we are responding to quasi-legal immigration (TFW issue) and we are nowhere near the Illegal immigration issue that is what the US is dealing with.

Yes, there were numerous factors, such as withdrawing previous Trump policies, new policies, expressed positions and desires, general attitude, PLUS the relaxing of COVID era travel restrictions, all which culminated in the impression that the USA was now a place that would be hospitable to immigrants. And that's not entirely inaccurate; Biden really did want more immigration, but he wanted it done legally, and not at the levels we saw. At to that the downturn of numerous economies in the south post Covid, and it was a recipe for disaster. I would posit, but am willing to be wrong, that a larger portion of the reason for the downturn in "encounters" since Trump took office is because people are (rightly so in my opinion) no longer seeing the US as a place you want to immigrate to. So, he's been highly successful in that regard, but at what cost?

 

[lenaitch]

No, that's a leap. I gather some sort of articulable cause is required.

"We're going to take him and check—if he's good we'll bring him back," agent said.

Sounds like no articulable cause that I am aware of. Sounds more like a fishing trip and 'working while not-looking-American' is the catch of the day.

 

[KevinB]

Difficult? Probably economically suicidal...


View attachment 95758

Geographic Concentration of Immigrants in Construction

More than half of the 3 million immigrant construction workers reside in the four most populous states in the U.S. See more on the geographical concentration of immigrants in the construction workforce.

www.nahb.org

I find it extremely hard to believe that Virginia is only 27%, if the numbers where inverted I would have a much easier time...

 

[McG]

"We're going to take him and check—if he's good we'll bring him back," agent said.

Sounds like no articulable cause that I am aware of. Sounds more like a fishing trip and 'working while not-looking-American' is the catch of the day.

Americans now have the right to be assumed guilty. That’s totally normal for a democracy governed by the rule of law.

 

[brihard]

Worth noting that, in this thread, we have both the cops and the lawyers largely saying “oof” at the same things. That should be a sign of how aberrant some actions are.

 

[mariomike]

Statue of Liberty's inscription:

"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door"

and who inevitably come from what Trump refers to as "shithole countries" and who can't afford to bribe their way in for a US$5 million gold card.

Or, as American Tabloid put it,

America was never innocent. We popped our cherry on the boat over and looked back with no regrets. You can’t ascribe our fall from grace to any single event or set of circumstances. You can’t lose what you lacked at conception.

 

[Lumber]

"We're going to take him and check—if he's good we'll bring him back," agent said.

Sounds like no articulable cause that I am aware of. Sounds more like a fishing trip and 'working while not-looking-American' is the catch of the day.

I read a bit of the SCOTUS decision, and my assumption was that ICE are allowed to stop you, ask questions, and check ID, based on racial profiling, not that they could arrest you and take you away based on racial profiling.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Worth noting that, in this thread, we have both the cops and the lawyers largely saying “oof” at the same things. That should be a sign of how aberrant some actions are.

Meanwhile, the consultants be like...

 

[QV]

"We're going to take him and check—if he's good we'll bring him back," agent said.

Sounds like no articulable cause that I am aware of. Sounds more like a fishing trip and 'working while not-looking-American' is the catch of the day.

I'd take that with a grain of salt. Do you recall explaining your articulable cause or RPG to every by-stander when on the job?

 

[QV]

Worth noting that, in this thread, we have both the cops and the lawyers largely saying “oof” at the same things. That should be a sign of how aberrant some actions are.

There is always a lack of context in this kind of reporting. And this thread is largely anti-trump everything....so...

 

[brihard]

There is always a lack of context in this kind of reporting. And this thread is largely anti-trump everything....so...

Nonetheless, taking the reports at even a rather skeptical face value, it sounds like people randomly getting detained/arrested, forced into vans and taken away until identified and their citizenship status confirmed. I would welcome any further information that sheds light on just what this is

 

[daftandbarmy]

Nonetheless, taking the reports at even a rather skeptical face value, it sounds like people randomly getting detained/arrested, forced into vans and taken away until identified and their citizenship status confirmed. I would welcome any further information that sheds light on just what this is

I'm no expert but it sounds like 'suspending habeas corpus', or something like that...

 

[mariomike]

More interestingly, it takes 2.1 live births per female to sustain the population of a country over time.

In peacetime?

If there is another Big War, it would take 21 years to replace a soldier, or industrial worker.

A reader put it this way regarding the 18 - 29 gender divide in America,

Those are some south korea type numbers.

Let me check their birth rate...

Oh boy.

 

[brihard]

In peacetime?

If there is another Big War, it would take 21 years to replace a soldier, or industrial worker.

A reader put it this way regarding the 18 - 29 gender divide in America,

Yeah, OECD birth rates in general are pretty bad to dismal. Of those 38 countries, only Israel is above replacement rate and most are well below. It doesn’t seem to be improving. The rich west is seemingly unable or unwilling to grow its population simply by reproduction. Unless that changes, significant immigration is required to stave off an inverted population pyramid and economic collapse