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Trump administration 2024-2028

RangerRay said:
ICE has managed to deport a lot more illegals under the Obama Administration without having to resort to questionable or illegal tactics, hiding their identities or producing war porn.
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Three things: everyone from activists down to mere enthusiasts temper their oppositional energy and tactics when they find themselves opposing one of their own (and it is difficult to image a greater partisan divide than Obama and Trump); it is easy to have greater output numbers when you allow greater input numbers; Trump's administration is dealing with the insufficiently policed borders of the Biden administration, not the Obama administration.
RangerRay said:
The fears of doxxing are fear porn produced by the Administration and Fox “News” to excuse their goon behaviour, when it’s their behaviour that is making them extremely unpopular.
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Joshua Jahn. The concern is irrefutably legitimate.
 
RangerRay said:
Yes. Sykes is a former conservative radio host who lost his show when he refused to get on the Trump Train and saw him for the disaster It is. He also wrote a book titled “How the Right Lost its Mind”. Great book, highly recommended. I appreciate hearing from apostates because they are usually trying to warn people of trouble coming from their camp.
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Sykes isn't part of the Republican camp. He's with the community of self-exiled (former) Republican NeverTrumpers, who followed in the footsteps of David Frum by declaring themselves the True American Conservatives and reading everyone else out after Trump's ascent. (Of course the American conservative polity has always been a big tent, but they were accustomed to sitting at the head table during the Bush administration.) Several prominent members of the tribe openly declared that if the Republican party tolerated Trump, it would be better for the Republican party to be destroyed and rebuilt. Their attitude is approximately that they shouldn't have to do the hard work of remaining within the party to influence its course; they can stand outside lobbing molotov cocktails until it burns down and then they will show up to take over the ashes. Their maturity is close cousin to leaving the playground with their ball and going home.

They seek to conserve nothing except to restore their own proximity to power. Many of the prominent writers are people I used to read regularly, mostly at National Review. My views still mostly align with libertarian-inflected classical liberalism and what was conventional during the Mulroney/Reagan/Thatcher era; their minds are distraught and it shows in what they write. They've been 9 years without influence in Republican WH-contending circles, and 16 years out of the WH. Trump's unexpected second win has elevated my earlier prediction that they were pitching a fit because they foresaw a likely 16 to 24 years in the political wilderness (no turn again in the WH) to a time-out of 24 to 32.

Meanwhile they throw their weight behind Democrats, who are objectively becoming much more extreme relative to the NeverTrumpers' professed conservativism. (It is a trivial matter of common sense to observe that US progressives are moving left with a much velocity greater than conservatives, and that US conservatives also have a net leftward velocity.) They claim to be conservatives even as they support progressive political fortunes. They may or may not be conscious that to Democrats they are useful idiots; they will each in turn be discarded when they cease to be useful. A fitting end for people who think they are entitled to reap the profits of voters' support to their own ends and then to discard the interests of those voters when the latter doubt their interests were being served in the first place.
 
Brad Sallows said:
(It is a trivial matter of common sense to observe that US progressives are moving left with a much velocity greater than conservatives, and that US conservatives also have a net leftward velocity.)
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Disagree completely.

The Democratic party went Clinton->Obama->Biden->Harris->Newsom/Shaprio?
The Republican party when H.W. Bush->W. Bush->Trump->Trump 2.0

Looking at those two progressions, how can you possibly say that the Democrats have moved with "greater" velocity than the Republicans?
 
Lumber said:
Disagree completely.

The Democratic party went Clinton->Obama->Biden->Harris->Newsom/Shaprio?
The Republican party when H.W. Bush->W. Bush->Trump->Trump 2.0

Looking at those two progressions, how can you possibly say that the Democrats have moved with "greater" velocity than the Republicans?
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Political Values 1994-2017 (Pew Research).

That aside, is it your contention that Republicans are closing the ideological gap between them and Democrats, or that Republicans continue to drift rightward? The former seems absurd. To the latter, apply common sense: on matters of sexual expression alone, the median US conservative is more accepting now (eg. general lifestyle choices, acceptability in mainstream society, same-sex marriage) than during the Reagan/Clinton era. On matters of racial politics, the same. Bottom line, there is no evidence of more than a very small minority of extremists wanting to revert to pre-1980 norms let alone pre-1964 ones.

If Republicans are not actually drifting right and are not closing the gap with Democrats moving left, they cannot be moving with greater velocity in either direction. The claim that Republicans are becoming "more extreme" is a rhetorical misrepresentation of the increasing distance between the median ideological attitudes, but as in physics, there are no preferred frames of reference in politics. All we can do is pick a date and measure changes in attitudes since that time.

Definitionally: progressives seek more change than conservatives.

[Add: for the presidential succession comparison - which is not a reflection of the US as a whole - as a matter of policy positions, Trump is held by many US political observers to be approximately a 1990s Democrat].
 
Brad Sallows said:
Three things: everyone from activists down to mere enthusiasts temper their oppositional energy and tactics when they find themselves opposing one of their own (and it is difficult to image a greater partisan divide than Obama and Trump); it is easy to have greater output numbers when you allow greater input numbers; Trump's administration is dealing with the insufficiently policed borders of the Biden administration, not the Obama administration.
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It still doesn’t justify Gestapo tactics and disguising you identity and legitimate law enforcement status.

Brad Sallows said:
Joshua Jahn. The concern is irrefutably legitimate.
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I don’t see anything about doxxing goons (I refuse to give them the respect of law enforcement officers so long as they act unprofessionally deploying questionable, if not illegal tactics) here. A psycho shoots randomly at a known ICE facility killing detainees. As far as I know, it’s still not clear if he was targeting agents or detainees. Even if he was targeting goons, they were employing these tactics before the incident.

If a psycho shoots up a police station and killed some prisoners, would you argue that beat cops need to wear masks and plainclothes and not identify themselves when making arrests?
 
Brad Sallows said:
Sykes isn't part of the Republican camp. He's with the community of self-exiled (former) Republican NeverTrumpers, who followed in the footsteps of David Frum by declaring themselves the True American Conservatives and reading everyone else out after Trump's ascent. (Of course the American conservative polity has always been a big tent, but they were accustomed to sitting at the head table during the Bush administration.) Several prominent members of the tribe openly declared that if the Republican party tolerated Trump, it would be better for the Republican party to be destroyed and rebuilt. Their attitude is approximately that they shouldn't have to do the hard work of remaining within the party to influence its course; they can stand outside lobbing molotov cocktails until it burns down and then they will show up to take over the ashes. Their maturity is close cousin to leaving the playground with their ball and going home.

They seek to conserve nothing except to restore their own proximity to power. Many of the prominent writers are people I used to read regularly, mostly at National Review. My views still mostly align with libertarian-inflected classical liberalism and what was conventional during the Mulroney/Reagan/Thatcher era; their minds are distraught and it shows in what they write. They've been 9 years without influence in Republican WH-contending circles, and 16 years out of the WH. Trump's unexpected second win has elevated my earlier prediction that they were pitching a fit because they foresaw a likely 16 to 24 years in the political wilderness (no turn again in the WH) to a time-out of 24 to 32.

Meanwhile they throw their weight behind Democrats, who are objectively becoming much more extreme relative to the NeverTrumpers' professed conservativism. (It is a trivial matter of common sense to observe that US progressives are moving left with a much velocity greater than conservatives, and that US conservatives also have a net leftward velocity.) They claim to be conservatives even as they support progressive political fortunes. They may or may not be conscious that to Democrats they are useful idiots; they will each in turn be discarded when they cease to be useful. A fitting end for people who think they are entitled to reap the profits of voters' support to their own ends and then to discard the interests of those voters when the latter doubt their interests were being served in the first place.
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So when your party goes off the deep end and there is no way to right the ship, you should just STFU. Got it.
 
RangerRay said:
It still doesn’t justify Gestapo tactics and disguising you identity and legitimate law enforcement status.
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Those are two different things. It isn't rhetorically clever to "AND" them to force an association. Gestapo tactics aren't justified. Disguising identity under some circumstances is. ICE isn't the first agency to conduct operations masked.
RangerRay said:
I don’t see anything about doxxing goons (I refuse to give them the respect of law enforcement officers so long as they act unprofessionally deploying questionable, if not illegal tactics) here.
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You're condemning all for the actions of some - I suppose only a few. That makes no sense.
RangerRay said:
A psycho shoots randomly at a known ICE facility killing detainees. As far as I know, it’s still not clear if he was targeting agents or detainees. Even if he was targeting goons, they were employing these tactics before the incident.
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We can never know, since he killed himself. But he was an anti-ICE activist, not an anti-immigrant activist.
 
RangerRay said:
So when your party goes off the deep end and there is no way to right the ship, you should just STFU. Got it.
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The party has not gone off the deep end. The political structure of the US from top to bottom is much, much more than just a presidential administration.

It is impossible to know whether a ship can be righted if you don't put in some hard work first. The NeverTrumpers are spoiled children acting like control of Republican presidential politics should be handed to them on a platter by unquestioning voters who merely express gratitude for the benevolent rulers whose chief skills are regime change and other foreign interventionism, all of it very costly.

But, yeah, they and those who follow them are missing an excellent opportunity to say nothing, preferably for years. It's not as if they are pure disinterested critics delivering perspicacious objective insights from afar. They've mostly allied with what used to be their antithesis. And as I just wrote, there's a lot more going on in America than just a presidential administration. The fact that they focus on that so much reveals their power obsession.
 
Brad Sallows said:
Political Values 1994-2017 (Pew Research).

That aside, is it your contention that Republicans are closing the ideological gap between them and Democrats, or that Republicans continue to drift rightward? The former seems absurd. To the latter, apply common sense: on matters of sexual expression alone, the median US conservative is more accepting now (eg. general lifestyle choices, acceptability in mainstream society, same-sex marriage) than during the Reagan/Clinton era. On matters of racial politics, the same. Bottom line, there is no evidence of more than a very small minority of extremists wanting to revert to pre-1980 norms let alone pre-1964 ones.

If Republicans are not actually drifting right and are not closing the gap with Democrats moving left, they cannot be moving with greater velocity in either direction. The claim that Republicans are becoming "more extreme" is a rhetorical misrepresentation of the increasing distance between the median ideological attitudes, but as in physics, there are no preferred frames of reference in politics. All we can do is pick a date and measure changes in attitudes since that time.

Definitionally: progressives seek more change than conservatives.

[Add: for the presidential succession comparison - which is not a reflection of the US as a whole - as a matter of policy positions, Trump is held by many US political observers to be approximately a 1990s Democrat].
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Well, getting away from Presidents and focusing on congress, this Pew Research article from 2022 states that Republicans have become more conservative more than Democrats have become more liberal:

www.pewresearch.org

The polarization in today’s Congress has roots that go back decades

On average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
 
Lumber said:
Well, getting away from Presidents and focusing on congress, this Pew Research article from 2022 states that Republicans have become more conservative more than Democrats have become more liberal:

www.pewresearch.org

The polarization in today’s Congress has roots that go back decades

On average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
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That is interesting.

Is there an explanation consistent with my assertions?

The results for 1994-2017 are surveys of the American public using the same set of questions. Those are measurements relative to a fixed point, and my conclusions are drawn with reference to that fixed point.

The congressional polarization survey is a survey of congressional members voting records on issues measured by whatever DW_NOMINATE does.

"Both parties have moved further away from the ideological center since the early 1970s. Democrats on average have become somewhat more liberal, while Republicans on average have become much more conservative."

An ideological center is a midpoint between two ideologies, and necessarily moves as the respective ideologies change. Even if the claim is that the methodology is supposed to have a fixed center, DW_NOMINATE cannot define such a fixed point because legislative votes are not a set of fixed questions; there is a subjective judgement as to where they fit in the ideological space.

All that has to happen for Republicans to appear to move one way is for a not truly fixed center to move the other. But let the premise of the fixed center be granted. If Republicans on average started more moderate than Democrats, they would appear to move more as both parties purged their moderates - which is what is claimed: "Five decades ago, 144 House Republicans were less conservative than the most conservative Democrat, and 52 House Democrats were less liberal than the most liberal Republican, according to the analysis.".

Regardless, Congressional voting records on arbitrarily siloed and scored issues are not a proxy for public attitudes and in particular for the ideological shift of the American population of Democrats and Republicans throughout the country and up and down the levels of government. I maintain that progressives are, definitionally and empirically, moving left faster than conservatives, and that conservatives are moving left.
 

Last weekend, SNAP benefits lapsed for the first time in our nation’s history. This is a problem that could have and should have been avoided,” said U.S. District Judge John McConnell Jr., an Obama appointee. The government “knew there would be a long delay in paying [partial] SNAP benefits and failed to consider the harms individuals who rely on those benefits would suffer.”

McConnell also noted that President Donald Trump’s post on social media that benefits wouldn’t be funded until the government reopened “stated his intent to defy the court order.”
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Seems we are at the ignoring the courts phase of this administration.
 
Altair said:
Seems we are at the ignoring the courts phase of this administration.
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They aren't ignoring the courts; they're challenging the courts. An unanswered question is how much latitude the courts have to decide how Congress means appropriations to be spent. If Congress didn't intend the contingency fund to be used for covering a shortfall during a routine (for Congress) budget dispute in the legislature, a court may not have the power to order it so.

A separate observation: too much ridiculous behaviour from a few ideologically-motivated judges, and all judges will look equally ridiculous. The profession's reputational integrity is only as strong as its weakest members'. Judges, regulate thyselves.
 
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