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Trump administration 2024-2028

PrairieFella said:
I fail to see what youre trying to say. He is looking more and more likely to part of the cabal of global kid fuckers. Thats what Im trying to say.
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What I'm saying is the evidence doesn't support your claim, unless "more and more likely" is along the lines of "just doubled from 0.0001% likely to 0.0002% likely". What's the likelihood that among all the people who have had access to all the documents about to be released, for several years and through a highly contentious election there was no-one who came across even tenth-of-balance-of-probability proof of kid-fucking and was willing to leak it?

Most reasonable conclusion: no proof exists that will convince anyone not already deeply invested in believing.

That doesn't preclude anyone else from suffering reputational damage. Too bad for them - it's deserved - but hard on anyone who loses a champion because they thought there could only be one kind of dirt in all that correspondence. Too bad for them, too, though, for being imprudent muck-rakers lacking all common sense. Discreditably, I find myself hoping a few of them learn a sobering lesson.

Passed and about to be signed. An excellent day. I can guess that a whole bunch of other people who think it's excellent are about to be disappointed at best, and dismayed at worst, because I doubt it will go in the direction they hope. Unless release of some stuff continues to be blocked, critics will have to move from vague speculation to trying to inflate appearances. Which they will do, but rather impotently.
 
Brad Sallows said:
Effectively it has already been released. Commercial companies are developing AI and uses for AI.

Why? We went from roughly 80% of people employed in agriculture to maybe 2% or 3% in less than 200 years. We don't have 70% unemployment. While 30% employment practically overnight would be a crisis, that's not likely to happen.

Why is it people point to "some one thing" (AI and increased port automation being two recent examples) that might increase productive output and decrease the necessary human labour, and somehow it is to be set apart from every other innovation that did the same thing, as being "bad"?

Walk down 4 blocks of any moderately-sized town's main street and catalogue the kinds of businesses you see.

Every dire prediction overlooks human ingenuity and the selfish impulse to improving one's own circumstances.

The necessary guardrails for AI pertain to the distinction between "advice" and "control", and keeping people in between the two.
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I will argue that as agriculture shed jobs, industry was there to absorb them. I am not seeing who is going to absorb a lot of the workers, who's middle class jobs are going to disappear?
 
Brad Sallows said:
What I'm saying is the evidence doesn't support your claim, unless "more and more likely" is along the lines of "just doubled from 0.0001% likely to 0.0002% likely". What's the likelihood that among all the people who have had access to all the documents about to be released, for several years and through a highly contentious election there was no-one who came across even tenth-of-balance-of-probability proof of kid-fucking and was willing to leak it?

Most reasonable conclusion: no proof exists that will convince anyone not already deeply invested in believing.

That doesn't preclude anyone else from suffering reputational damage. Too bad for them - it's deserved - but hard on anyone who loses a champion because they thought there could only be one kind of dirt in all that correspondence. Too bad for them, too, though, for being imprudent muck-rakers lacking all common sense. Discreditably, I find myself hoping a few of them learn a sobering lesson.

Passed and about to be signed. An excellent day. I can guess that a whole bunch of other people who think it's excellent are about to be disappointed at best, and dismayed at worst, because I doubt it will go in the direction they hope. Unless release of some stuff continues to be blocked, critics will have to move from vague speculation to trying to inflate appearances. Which they will do, but rather impotently.
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The good news is that people and organization can digest and discuss the files and eventually we can move on. There will always be some saying "There is more hidden", but the majority of people will take what they want and you barely hear it discussed in a few years.
 
Colin Parkinson said:
I will argue that as agriculture shed jobs, industry was there to absorb them. I am not seeing who is going to absorb a lot of the workers, who's middle class jobs are going to disappear?
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First observation is that if it were possible to predict how people will react to change, we'd have seen a lot more people betting and winning over past decades.

Second observation is there's no certainty a lot of jobs will disappear.

AI isn't going to be perfect, and AI can't be held accountable. As soon as the first examples of shit going sideways crop up, demands for human supervision will rapidly escalate.
 
Colin Parkinson said:
The good news is that people and organization can digest and discuss the files and eventually we can move on. There will always be some saying "There is more hidden", but the majority of people will take what they want and you barely hear it discussed in a few years.
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Shouldn't take long. About as soon as all the content that isn't already digitized can be scanned and cleaned, more than one motivated entity is going to comb the data with AI tools to find out what attaches to whom. We're way past simple word concordance searches for names.
 
Brad Sallows said:
First observation is that if it were possible to predict how people will react to change, we'd have seen a lot more people betting and winning over past decades.

Second observation is there's no certainty a lot of jobs will disappear.

AI isn't going to be perfect, and AI can't be held accountable. As soon as the first examples of shit going sideways crop up, demands for human supervision will rapidly escalate.
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AI can't be held accountable eh. Well all that means is they're going to do fire some junior human employee.
,Who in all probability had absolutely nothing to do with the screwup to begin with.
 
QV said:
Epstein badmouthing Trump is the most hilariously ironic part of "he's in the files". But the left takes it further: Epstein said he was dangerous!

:ROFLMAO:
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Exactly lets wait and see what the context is. If its Epstein saying "Trump, Fuck that guy" 1500 times thats very different then "Trump, which trafficked human would you like to exploit now ?"

Context is everything.
 
The DOJ is arguing that they didn't need to as the GJ had already approved two of the charges. His lawyers are arguing that the GJ returning the charges to DOJ means that they have to submit a completely new document for full consideration, the prior approvals notwithstanding. I think he has a valid argument.
 
Altair said:
AI is at the precipice of being a tool used by humanity to further human potential to becoming a tool used to create better and better AI without humanity in mind.

The fact that AI is willing to blackmail and murder humans to achieve their goals when they think they are not being observed, and explicitly told not to do so, but don't when they know they are being observed tells us AI is not inherently honest.
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The fact AI tries to bullshit me and me gives me wrong answers to my questions because it’s trying to give me an answer I want, gives me pause.
 
RangerRay said:
The fact AI tries to bullshit me and me gives me wrong answers to my questions because it’s trying to give me an answer I want, gives me pause.
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Good news! We've provided everyone with a cellphone and an internet connection an interlocutor once available only to the most rarefied levels of society: the Obsequious Courtier.

My gig is awash in tech specs and equipment manuals. Few things annoy me more than Adobe offering to summarize; half the time there's already been too much cut out:* your probability engine is not going to help.

*The prosumer and the desire to make manuals look appealing are a curse. Gimme 800 pages of terse instructions, notes, and warnings, with properly-labelled line drawings and massive tables written in whatever happened to be the default font.
 
OldSolduer said:
Are the Epstein files out yet?!
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The Epstein files have been "out" ever since they were first accessible to government, and hence to any potential whistleblowers in government; there just hasn't been much of incendiary interest. All that's going to happen now is that mostly ordinary people will be able to go hunting for imagined crimes, like who accepted political donations from Epstein.
 
HavokFour said:
The normal is off the charts now.

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Dem veterans in Congress urge service members to refuse unlawful orders

None of the Democrats specified what illegal orders they should be concerned about or what to do if they believe they are given one.
www.washingtonexaminer.com www.washingtonexaminer.com

View attachment 96840

View attachment 96841
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“Obey the law and remember your oath to the Constitution” is sedition now? Neat. Good thing the President is a fan of pardoning or commuting sentences for that.
 
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