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Trump administration 2024-2028


So Japan is desperate to not have its currency drop below 160 yen to the dollar, so much so that its willing to sell US treasuries to defend the currency.

The US, with its high yields already, is desperate for the Japanese to not sell its USD holdings, so much so its willing to sell Euros to defend the yen.

And the markets are calling the bluff.


Things are about to get really uncomfortable for both nations.

Writing is on the wall, as evident of the gold rush happening in the background.

[Reuters]South Korea's central bank to buy gold from domestic producers


The purchases ‌will ⁠have a limited impact on trading prices of gold in the country, since the bank plans to buy gold ⁠intended for exports only at contract prices, it added.

The bank said the purchases would support ⁠its management of foreign reserves. They mark the central bank's first ⁠domestic gold purchases in 13 years, according to local media reports.

Even FOX is reporting on it.

 
Writing is on the wall, as evident of the gold rush happening in the background.

[Reuters]South Korea's central bank to buy gold from domestic producers




Even FOX is reporting on it.

Trump bringing back the gold standard, look at that.

Remarkable here is that the USD had been dropping in lockstep with the yen, so the Yen is actually falling faster than it appears.
 

So Japan is desperate to not have its currency drop below 160 yen to the dollar, so much so that its willing to sell US treasuries to defend the currency.

The US, with its high yields already, is desperate for the Japanese to not sell its USD holdings, so much so its willing to sell Euros to defend the yen.

And the markets are calling the bluff.


Things are about to get really uncomfortable for both nations.
We own about 400BB in US Treasuries...maybe a 200BB dump will cover some of the tariff harms...
 
We own about 400BB in US Treasuries...maybe a 200BB dump will cover some of the tariff harms...
There should be a global effort to drive up US borrowing costs as a result of his trade war, but it would take a global push.


The globe owns about a quarter of the U.S. debt, ~9/39TUSD. Even a partial sell off would create major debt management and budgetary sustainability issues.

I wonder who the biggest buyer(s) of fire-sale Treasuries would be? 🤔
 

The globe owns about a quarter of the U.S. debt, ~9/39TUSD. Even a partial sell off would create major debt management and budgetary sustainability issues.

I wonder who the biggest buyer(s) of fire-sale Treasuries would be? 🤔
Spider-Man Part GIF


In truth a global sell of would tank the global economy. And I'm not convinced the USA wouldn't use IEEPA to stop a capital run off.
 
Spider-Man Part GIF


In truth a global sell of would tank the global economy. And I'm not convinced the USA wouldn't use IEEPA to stop a capital run off.
Wasn’t implying it was anyone’s problem. If there is a meaningful sell-off, it will be interesting to see the sell-but prices and how much of a haircut some nations are willing to take to make a point and gain advantages elsewhere. I’m betting China is interested in buying up more Treasuries…and Japan is in a really sucky spot atm.
 
Wasn’t implying it was anyone’s problem. If there is a meaningful sell-off, it will be interesting to see the sell-but prices and how much of a haircut some nations are willing to take to make a point and gain advantages elsewhere. I’m betting China is interested in buying up more Treasuries…and Japan is in a really sucky spot atm.
China has been selling off US treasuring on a whole recently.

My bet would be on the UK.
 
The kicker with this one is that she is now a "special outside advisor".

In unrelated news, on the 10th, the day before she was transitioned, this happened:

An August 10, 2026, opinion from the U.S. Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) states that executive privilege can shield confidential communications between a president and private, outside advisers who are not government employees, provided the talks relate to official decision-making. [1, 2]

Key Details of the OLC Opinion
    • The Scope: Extends presidential communications privilege past formal government employees to informal or private consultants. [1]
    • The Test: The interaction must be confidential, touch on official presidential decisions, and involve or reflect direct communication with the president or formal aides. [1]
    • The Limit: The privilege protects the office's decision-making process, meaning outside individuals do not receive a personal, permanent legal shield. [1]

Controversy and Implications
    • Congressional Oversight: Critics and congressional members argue the policy is an unprecedented expansion of secrecy meant to block future congressional subpoenas and investigations. [1]
    • Legal Standing: OLC opinions offer legal guidance to the executive branch, but they are non-binding and often challenged or rejected by federal courts. [1, 2]

I am sure that is a coincidence....
 
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