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U.K. General Election, 4 Jul 2024

Man; UK politics is getting close to what usually see in Greece or Italy, its bonkers.
 
Exit poll only right now, but not looking good for the Tories (source) ....
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More ...

Live tracking by seats via The Guardian (still to fill in as of this post)
Let's see how close the exit polling is to the final, final numbers ...
 
I have to wonder about the logic of a snap election, was it meant as a way to suicide the current party leadership so they can spend a few years as opposition to sort their shit out or were they that self convinced of their awesomeness? Frankly he have just let the government run quietly for a bit and do just housekeeping stuff and given some time for voters to lose their anger.
 
I have to wonder about the logic of a snap election, was it meant as a way to suicide the current party leadership so they can spend a few years as opposition to sort their shit out or were they that self convinced of their awesomeness? Frankly he have just let the government run quietly for a bit and do just housekeeping stuff and given some time for voters to lose their anger.

Probably just Hubris... they wanted to be able to enjoy their summer comfortable in the knowledge they'd have jobs to return to. NOT! ;)
 
Probably just Hubris... they wanted to be able to enjoy their summer comfortable in the knowledge they'd have jobs to return to. NOT! ;)

And speaking of those who do not have a job to return to . . .

Lettuce have a look at one.


I like the way that UK constituencies announce the count, mostly for the entertainment value. While some have candidates with a deer in the headlights expression, the appearances of Count Binface, the well established Official Monster Raving Loony Party participants and many other odd characters standing next to (and hopefully embarrassing) the 'credible' candidates are a welcome addition to political theatre.

 
Let's see how close the exit polling is to the final, final numbers ...

Not wildly out of sync.

Exit PollFinal Count
Labour410412
Conservatives131121
Liberal Democrats6171 (72 if Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire is counted as per article below)
Reform135
SNP109
Plaid Cymru44
Green24
Other1923 (Independents and the various Northern Ireland parties)

That's with 649/650 seats declared. The one remaining is in the Highlands; Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire.


 
And yet, Labour had only 33.9% of the popular vote.

🍻
 
Probably just Hubris... they wanted to be able to enjoy their summer comfortable in the knowledge they'd have jobs to return to. NOT! ;)
Or they didn't believe the general feeling that ten years, plus or minus a bit, tends to lead to a best-before date?
 
And yet, Labour had only 33.9% of the popular vote.

🍻

As I have been soundly told many times on this forum, that has absolutely nothing to do with fair and equitable elections, FPTP is the supreme electoral system.

Reform UK received 4,114,287 votes (3rd Most Votes) and received 5 seats. Lib Dems Received 3,501,040 and received 72 seats.

 
Probably just Hubris... they wanted to be able to enjoy their summer comfortable in the knowledge they'd have jobs to return to. NOT! ;)
I think they just wanted to get it over with. Trying to move kids in the middle of term is a miserable business.

They knew what was coming.
 
Optimistic take: Labour won what a brief mention I saw today described as a "Potemkin landslide". They won a modest plurality of a low turnout while the conservative vote was split, and a lot of races were close. It's difficult for any party to hold enough voters past three or even two terms in a FPTP parliamentary system. Sunak may have done a great service - rather than drag things out to some statutory deadline, hand over the bag of problems right now and allow conservatives to work on reunifying in one party with an appealing platform with a view to turning out Labour after one term and governing for another two or three themselves. Expect Labour to contribute to an early turnover by doing what governments always do - misread the result, claim an overwhelming mandate, and push unpopular policies as if voters wanted them in rather than wanting the others out.
 
I think they just wanted to get it over with. Trying to move kids in the middle of term is a miserable business.

They knew what was coming.

What is the likelihood that the kids of UK MPs (particularly Conservative) are attending a public (private) school? Would they even consider changing jobs "mid-term" as a factor in changing their kids' school?
 



Labour won with fewer votes than at any time and with a lower turn out than any election since men were granted universal suffrage in the 1880s.
Starmer won his seat while losing 10,000 voters between 2019 and 2014.
Reform gained 4 million voters all across the UK.

Labour lost voters to the Right (Reform), to the Left (Corbynites), to the Pro-Palestinians, to the Greens and to the center (Liberal Democrats)
The Tories lost voters to the Right (Reform) and to the Left (Liberal Democrats).


Where did people vote for Reform?
Vote share by constituency

0-10%
10-20%
20-30%
30-40%

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Reform is second choice many places, including Wales and Scotland.

I think the Tories and Reform are going to have an easier time finding a middle ground by 2029 than Starmer will trying to keep his mob together.


...

This anthem probably doesn't sit easily with the Red Flag secularists or the Pro-Palestinian faction.


And the green faction of Labour is going to be arguing over fossil fuel and nuclear jobs (including nuclear subs)

While electrical pylons aren't popular anywhere


....


And Starmer, like every British PM since WW2, will be off to Washington to be ratified. I wish him better luck than Liz Truss had.
I am reminded that for 700 years Roman Popes were ratified in Constantinople before the Franks and the Germans got into the battle.

....

And finally

The Bann continues to be the border between the Unionists and the Republicans - Antrim and Down are different.

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