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We have 10 years. Thats a lot of lead time even if the worse comes to pass.
U.K. General Election/Government, 4 Jul 2024 - ?
- Thread starter The Bread Guy
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Oh the rumbling and mumbling is there for sure, but the Liberal caucus has never given itself the powers available under the Reform Act so they have no formal mechanism to do anything about it. Also, it's one thing to be disgruntled on the backbenches of a party with a majority government one year in and with a leader still apparently enjoying a honeymoon with the voters. Quite another to be on the backbenches of a majority government half way through it's mandate and with a leader whose approval rating was lower than Liz Truss's, who was herself arguably less popular that a lettuce....
There's a very basic question any Liberal MP feeling the party has moved too far to the (gasp) centre should ask themselves. Is it better to be a disgruntled leftist on this side of the aisle or to check out the view from the seats occupied by the independent MPs otherwise known as the NDP caucus?
Add in parliamentary secretaries and committee chairs and really, the odds of getting some post on top of just being an MP are pretty good in Canada.
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Thatcher took over shortly after the UK joined the EU and while the 70s and 80s were generally volatile that's when their whole banking system was restructured and became a huge part of the UK economy (and conversely manufacturing dropped off a lot, and Thatcher went hard over on miners and other blue collar types).
They spent 50 years making their whole economy interlinked with other countries and rely on free movement for labour, then decided to pull out of it out of shear stupidity, after (largely Thatcher) burning through most of their natural resources turning UK into a service economy for the EU.
They don't need a Thatcher, they need someone to beg the EU. Would be hilarious if getting back into the EU is finally what gets Scottish independence pushed through.
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The UK did not shoot itself in the foot, unless you accept only limited criteria for measuring benefit and cost.
Exiting the EU has economic costs.
Exiting the EU has political (sovereignty) benefits.
Maitres chez nous has immense value. It turned out EU membership imposes risks of lowest-common-denominator and tragedy-of-commons problems.
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I am trying to think of any prior instance I've come across of someone advancing the proposition that moving from resources to services is not entirely a good idea, and coming up short. Usually in Canada we lament our position as "hewers-of-wood-and-drawers-of-water" and dream about moving up.
Well done.
Exiting the EU added transaction costs which resulting in some outflows, but it didn't end the country.
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Sure thing. But when it comes to governance, the population isnt giving UK PMs grace to deal with those economic costs.
They want their services, they dont want higher taxes, the UK economy cannot function because the financial sector doesnt have the seamless access to the continent.
So now every PM is handed a poisoned chalice. Please the population with no fiscal capacity to do so, trying to fit the square peg into the triangle hole, get massively unpopular and get the boot by their party or the electorate.
The UK will have had 7 Prime ministers in 10 years.
They had 7 prime ministers in the previous 42 years.
Talk sovereignty all you want, brexit broke the UK. And now nobody can run it.
Big win, ya?
daftandbarmy
Army.ca Fossil
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The revolving door at 10 Downing is unsurprising given the economic issues prevailing over the past decade or so...
But experts agree the long-term forecasters were on the money: the economy is significantly smaller than it would otherwise have been, trade has suffered, business investment and productivity growth have stalled, and families are on average thousands of pounds a year worse off.
www.theguardian.com
How Brexit has made Britain poorer – in charts
Forecasters were wrong about an immediate recession but right that we would be worse off outside the EUBut experts agree the long-term forecasters were on the money: the economy is significantly smaller than it would otherwise have been, trade has suffered, business investment and productivity growth have stalled, and families are on average thousands of pounds a year worse off.
How Brexit has made Britain poorer – in charts
Forecasters were wrong about an immediate recession but right that we would be worse off outside the EU
www.theguardian.com
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The bigger factor might be the loss of billions of Russian Oiligarch money running through the British system…
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Now that the UK has full control over itself, UK PMs are in part not being given grace because they're moving too slowly making changes voters want made on matters other than purely economic/fiscal. All the recent headlines were about censorship, highly unsatisfying choices about which people are permitted room to misbehave and which are in trouble if they express a contrary opinion, and the specific behaviour of a few immigrants and the people who, apparently, enabled them because they were cowed by some variation of identity politics. Economy wasn't mentioned much.
Pretty much every country and many of their lower level governments have revenue-expense imbalances on the adverse side right now. Not really much point singling out the UK. Maybe people who favoured Remain are having trouble letting go.
Brexit was effect, not cause. The UK was already "broken", if "broken" just means there's a ruling class that persists in trying to govern the country at odds with a majority of the governed. Governments all over Europe are having that problem. In each case, something is going to give. The governing classes are remarkably obtuse and determined to have their way, so my money is on the people eventually overturning all the card tables.
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Keeping in mind the leaders of the EU need to punish the UK, to keep the lesser nations inline, otherwise they might up and go as well. We are still in "punishment" stage, adding in Covid as well. I will argue that it is far to early to tell whether it is a success or failure.The revolving door at 10 Downing is unsurprising given the economic issues prevailing over the past decade or so...
How Brexit has made Britain poorer – in charts
Forecasters were wrong about an immediate recession but right that we would be worse off outside the EU
But experts agree the long-term forecasters were on the money: the economy is significantly smaller than it would otherwise have been, trade has suffered, business investment and productivity growth have stalled, and families are on average thousands of pounds a year worse off.
How Brexit has made Britain poorer – in charts
Forecasters were wrong about an immediate recession but right that we would be worse off outside the EU
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Its ten years later, they are markedly poorer, and have gone through more prime ministers than Italy and one less than France over the same timeframe.
And this isnt even to mention every devolved administration outside of London is run by separatists.
Massive failure. How much more time do we all need to see that?
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Britons are much better off than Iranians, and some people here are spouting off about how successful Iran has been lately. Maybe calibrate your superlatives?
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One. Keep threads on proper topics maybe?
Two. The UK was in line with its peers in terms of political stability and economic performance, and since brexit have failed spectacularly at both.
If you want to say sovergnity is worth that, be my guest, but judging by the churn at the top of british politics since brexit, the public clearly aren't happy.
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This is on topic. You're just throwing out superlatives: "massively", "spectacularly". Nothing remotely quantifiable or even justifiable by relative comparisons.
Haiti is a massively or spectacularly failed nation. The UK is not. Among "its peers" it ranks well in absolute GDP and per capita GDP. "Failure" isn't on any list of remotely non-risible descriptions.
And my contention is that departing the EU was an effect of dissatisfaction. PM churn started before Brexit, which makes Brexit a poor candidate for your claims about dissatisfaction.
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Yeah, sure, the UK is 10 percent poorer now because of brexit, better?
The UK is massively underperforming it's peers in the EU post Brexit. The UK was matching their peers in the EU pre brexit.
That's a failure. Not a failed nation, but a failure in economic performance. And the point of divergence, surprise, Brexit.
The PM churn absolutely did not start before brexit.
Margaret Thatcher: 11 years, 211 days
Tony Blair: 10 years, 58 days
John Major: 6 years, 157 days
David Cameron: 6 years, 65 days
*Boris Johnson: 3 years, 45 days
*Theresa May: 3 years, 11 days
*Gordon Brown: 2 years, 319 days
*Rishi Sunak: 1 year, 254 days
*Keir Starmer: 1 year, 353 days (Ongoing)
*Liz Truss: 0 years, 49 days
*Post Brexit Prime Ministers.
The UK had relatively stable governments before brexit, not a single PM has served a full term since.
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A Labour PM will have a tough time no matter what.
The people don’t want Labour, they won because of first past the post rather than growing support. It’s more the Tories split and the votes went to a bunch of different parties other than Labour, allowing Labour to win enough seats to form government.
That means the public really isn’t interested in their policies.
If the PM tries to govern too far down Labours ideology the public is upset. If they don’t, the party is upset and you get kicked out.
Rock and hard place.
The people don’t want Labour, they won because of first past the post rather than growing support. It’s more the Tories split and the votes went to a bunch of different parties other than Labour, allowing Labour to win enough seats to form government.
That means the public really isn’t interested in their policies.
If the PM tries to govern too far down Labours ideology the public is upset. If they don’t, the party is upset and you get kicked out.
Rock and hard place.
daftandbarmy
Army.ca Fossil
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And it looks like they're heading further Left, with hints of favouring a stronger command economy vs. free marketeering ...
“Andy Burnham is probably one of the most popular politicians in the country,” Bale said. “Although, to be honest, that is not saying much.”
Andy Burnham aims to replace Keir Starmer as U.K. PM. Who is he?
Burnham is perceived to be to the political left of Starmer – an asset with Labour members – and is acknowledged as one of the party’s best communicators. The rather stiff public speaker of his earlier leadership bids has been replaced by a relaxed figure in jeans and open-necked shirts.
His three mayoral election victories and decisive win in Thursday’s election in Makerfield, where he trounced the candidate of the anti-immigration party Reform UK, have cemented his status as a winner. Many in the party hope he can reverse Labour’s precipitous decline in popularity since Starmer won an election landslide two years ago.
In a postelection speech to supporters, Burnham sketched out his priorities: better vocational education and jobs for young people, lower energy bills and rail fares and “an end to trickle down economics, which didn’t trickle down very much at all to places like this.”
Critics say Burnham’s politics are vague and fail to grapple with tough issues, such as where the money will come from to pay for his pledges. And they note that running a country of 70 million is a lot different from overseeing a city region of 3 million.
Andy Burnham aims to replace Keir Starmer as U.K. PM. Who is he? - National | Globalnews.ca
Burnham is an experienced politician whose career has taken him from high-level government jobs to the mayoralty of Greater Manchester, and now to the cusp of the PM’s office.
globalnews.ca
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If Labour can get back the voters they lost to the greens they will br fine electorally. But they cannot afford the vote split.And it looks like they're heading further Left, with hints of favouring a stronger command economy vs. free marketeering ...
“Andy Burnham is probably one of the most popular politicians in the country,” Bale said. “Although, to be honest, that is not saying much.”
Andy Burnham aims to replace Keir Starmer as U.K. PM. Who is he?
Burnham is perceived to be to the political left of Starmer – an asset with Labour members – and is acknowledged as one of the party’s best communicators. The rather stiff public speaker of his earlier leadership bids has been replaced by a relaxed figure in jeans and open-necked shirts.
His three mayoral election victories and decisive win in Thursday’s election in Makerfield, where he trounced the candidate of the anti-immigration party Reform UK, have cemented his status as a winner. Many in the party hope he can reverse Labour’s precipitous decline in popularity since Starmer won an election landslide two years ago.
In a postelection speech to supporters, Burnham sketched out his priorities: better vocational education and jobs for young people, lower energy bills and rail fares and “an end to trickle down economics, which didn’t trickle down very much at all to places like this.”
Critics say Burnham’s politics are vague and fail to grapple with tough issues, such as where the money will come from to pay for his pledges. And they note that running a country of 70 million is a lot different from overseeing a city region of 3 million.
Andy Burnham aims to replace Keir Starmer as U.K. PM. Who is he? - National | Globalnews.ca
Burnham is an experienced politician whose career has taken him from high-level government jobs to the mayoralty of Greater Manchester, and now to the cusp of the PM’s office.
Although, neither can reform UK, and now they got their own splinter group, restore UK.
Another post brexit phenomenon, the decline of traditional parties, rise of the parties seeking to overturn the apple cart.
FPTP isnt meant to deal with 5-6 parties all polling above 10 percent.
daftandbarmy
Army.ca Fossil
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