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US Economy

Some good info in this paper...

"Proposed $700 Billion Bailout Is Too Little, Too Late to End the Debt Crisis; Too Much, Too Soon for the U.S. Bond Market"Submitted by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. and Michael D. Larson Weiss Research, Inc.
to United States Congress Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee September 25, 2008

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/files/documents/Final-Bailout-White-Paper.pdf

excerpts from Executive Summary....
New data and analysis demonstrate that the proposal before Congress for a $700 billion financial industry bailout is too little, too late to end the massive U.S. debt crisis; and, at the same time, too much, too soon for the U.S. Government bond
market where most of the funds would have to be raised.

I. Too Little, Too Late to End the Debt Crisis.
Just-released Federal Reserve Flow of Funds data show that, beyond mortgages, there are another $20.4 trillion in privatesector
consumer and corporate debts, plus $2.7 trillion in municipal securities outstanding.

II. Too Much, Too Soon for the U.S. Bond Market. There should also be no illusion that the market for U.S. government securities can absorb the additional burden of a $700 billion bailout without putting dramatic upward pressure on U.S. interest rates.

III. Policy Recommendations to Congress
1. Congress should limit and reduce the funds allocated to any bailout as much as
possible, focusing primarily on our recommendation #4 below.
2. If Congress is determined to provide substantial sums to a new government
agency to buy up bad private-sector debts, we recommend that the new agency pay
strictly fair market value for those debts, including a substantial discount that
reflects their poor liquidity.
3. Congress should clearly disclose to the public that there are significant risks in
the financial system that the government is not able to address.
4. Rather than protecting imprudent institutions and speculators, Congress should
protect prudent individuals and savers by strengthening existing safety nets,
including the FDIC for bank deposits, SIPC for brokerage accounts and state
guarantee associations that cover insurance policies.

IV. Recommendations to Savers and Investors
Regardless of what Congress decides, savers and investors should continue to
invest and save prudently, seeking the safest havens for their money, such as
banks with a financial strength rating of B+ or better, U.S. Treasury bills, and
money market funds that invest almost exclusively in short-term U.S. Treasury
securities or equivalent.

Some interesting tidbits with the banks at risk of failure... HSBC has a financial ranking of D+ with a 721% exposure to derivatives based on capital.  Wachovia has a C+ ranking and 78% exposure.  Citibank has a C- rank and 279% exposure.

In my opinion, keeping all your savings in U.S. based paper assets (stocks, bonds, T-bills, dollars) and hoping the government and banking system will protect your wealth is a losing strategy.  It seems to me that the Fed seems intent on hyperinflating their way out of this mess with endless bailouts of everyone until there is a final death spiral of the US dollar when foreign debt holders dump their dollars. 

If you don't hold it you don't own it.... so cash, stock and bond certificates, land (preferably waterfront), gold/silver, commodities, foreign assets in stable countries.  Stick to the 3 B's - beans bullets and bullion.

Another good resource is Chris Martenson's crash course...

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

Interesting times

 
Well, according to this article, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail, the bailout package is crafted, for better or for worse:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080928.wbailout28/BNStory/Front/home
Deal reached on bailout plan

CHARLES BABINGTON AND ALAN FRAM
Associated Press

September 28, 2008 at 1:55 AM EDT

WASHINGTON — Congressional leaders and the Bush administration reached a tentative deal early Sunday on a landmark bailout of imperiled financial markets whose collapse could plunge the nation into a deep recession.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the $700-billion (U.S.) accord just after midnight but said it still has to be put on paper.

"We've still got more to do to finalize it, but I think we're there," said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who also participated in the negotiations in the Capitol.

"We worked out everything," said Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., the chief Senate Republican in the talks.

Congressional leaders hope to have the House vote on the measure Monday. A Senate vote would come later.

The plan calls for the Treasury Department to buy deeply distressed mortgage-backed securities and other bad debts held by banks and other investors. The money should help troubled lenders make new loans and keep credit lines open. The government would later try to sell the discounted loan packages at the best possible price.

At the insistence of House Republicans, some money would be devoted to a program that would encourage holders of distressed mortgage-backed securities to keep them and buy government insurance to cover defaults.

The legislation would place "reasonable" limits on severance packages for executives of companies that benefit from the rescue plan, said a senior administration official who was authorized to speak only on background. It would affect fired executives of financial firms, and executives of firms that go bankrupt. Some of the provisions would be retroactive and some prospective, the official said.

Also, the government would receive stock warrants in return for the bailout relief, giving taxpayers a chance to share in financial companies' future profits.

To help struggling homeowners, the plan would require the government to try renegotiating the bad mortgages it acquires with the aim of lowering borrowers' monthly payments so they can keep their homes.

The measure's main elements were proposed a week ago by the Bush administration, with Paulson heading efforts to push it through the Democratic-controlled Congress. Democrats insisted on greater congressional oversight, more taxpayer protections, help for homeowners facing possible foreclosure, and restrictions on executives' compensation.

To some degree, all those items were added.

At the insistence of House Republicans, who threatened to sidetrack negotiations at midweek, the insurance provision was added as an alternative to having the government buy distressed securities. House Republicans say it will require less taxpayer spending for the bailout.

But the Treasury Department has said the insurance provision would not pump enough money into the financial sector to make credit sufficiently available. The department would decide how to structure the insurance provisions, said Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., one of the negotiators.

Money for the rescue plan would be phased in, he said. The first $350-billion would be available as soon as the president requested it. Congress could try to block later amounts if it believed the program was not working. The president could veto such a move, however, requiring extra large margins in the House and Senate to override.

Despite the changes made during an intense week of negotiations, the heart of the program remains Bush's original idea: To have the government spend billions of dollars to buy mortgage-backed securities whose value has plummeted as hundreds of thousands of Americans have defaulted on their home loans.

Senate Majority leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said Saturday that the goal was to come up with a final agreement before the Asian markets open Sunday night. "Everybody is waiting for this thing to tip a little bit too far," he said, so "we may not have another day."

Hours later, when he and others told reporters of the plan in a post-midnight news conference, Reid referred to the sometimes testy nature of the negotiations.

"We've had a lot of pleasant words," he said, "and some that haven't always been pleasant."

"We're very pleased with the progress made tonight," said White House spokesman Tony Fratto. "We appreciate the bipartisan effort to deal with this urgent issue."

It was not immediately clear how many House Republicans might vote for the measure. With the election five weeks away, Democrats have said they would not push a plan that appeared sharply partisan in nature.


To see if it is working at its real goal: stopping the panic amongst too easily frightened ‘investors,’ watch the LIBOR numbers.

LIBOR = London Interbank Offered Rate; it is the rate of interest at which banks borrow funds from each other in the London interbank market. LIBOR is the primary benchmark for global short term interest rates. It is the basis for contracts on many of the world’s major futures and options exchanges and most Over the Counter and lending transactions.

 
Interesting description of AIG's downfall.....there are a number of articles on the page, but the one I am posting is called

The London Office
  Article Link

  The insurance giant’s London unit was known as A.I.G. Financial Products, or A.I.G.F.P. It was run with almost complete autonomy, and with an iron hand, by Joseph J. Cassano, according to current and former A.I.G. employees. ~~~ A onetime executive with Drexel Burnham Lambert — the investment bank made famous in the 1980s by the junk bond king Michael R. Milken, who later pleaded guilty to six felony charges — Mr. Cassano helped start the London unit in 1987. ~~~ The unit became profitable enough that analysts considered Mr. Cassano a dark horse candidate to succeed Maurice R. Greenberg, the longtime chief executive who shaped A.I.G. in his own image until he was ousted amid an accounting scandal three years ago. ~~~ But last February, Mr. Cassano resigned after the London unit began bleeding money and auditors raised questions about how the unit valued its holdings. By Sept. 15, the unit’s troubles forced a major downgrade in A.I.G.’s debt rating, requiring the company to post roughly $15 billion in additional collateral — which then prompted the federal rescue. ~~~ Mr. Cassano, 53, lives in a handsome, three-story town house in the Knightsbridge neighborhood of London, just around the corner from Harrods department store on a quiet square with a private garden. ~~~ He did not respond to interview requests left at his home and with his lawyer. An A.I.G. spokesman also declined to comment. ~~~ At A.I.G., Mr. Cassano found himself ensconced in a behemoth that had a long and storied history of deftly juggling risks. It insured people and properties against natural disasters and death, offered sophisticated asset management services and did so reliably and with bravado on many continents. Even now, its insurance subsidiaries are financially strong. ~~~ When Mr. Cassano first waded into the derivatives market, his biggest business was selling so-called plain vanilla products like interest rate swaps. Such swaps allow participants to bet on the direction of interest rates and, in theory, insulate themselves from unforeseen financial events. ~~~ Ten years ago, a “watershed” moment changed the profile of the derivatives that Mr. Cassano traded, according to a transcript of comments he made at an industry event last year. Derivatives specialists from J. P. Morgan, a leading bank that had many dealings with Mr. Cassano’s unit, came calling with a novel idea. ~~~ Morgan proposed the following: A.I.G. should try writing insurance on packages of debt known as “collateralized debt obligations.” C.D.O.’s. were pools of loans sliced into tranches and sold to investors based on the credit quality of the underlying securities. ~~~ The proposal meant that the London unit was essentially agreeing to provide insurance to financial institutions holding C.D.O.’s and other debts in case they defaulted — in much the same way some homeowners are required to buy mortgage insurance to protect lenders in case the borrowers cannot pay back their loans. ~~~ Under the terms of the insurance derivatives that the London unit underwrote, customers paid a premium to insure their debt for a period of time, usually four or five years, according to the company. Many European banks, for instance, paid A.I.G. to insure bonds that they held in their portfolios. ~~~ Because the underlying debt securities — mostly corporate issues and a smattering of mortgage securities — carried blue-chip ratings, A.I.G. Financial Products was happy to book income in exchange for providing insurance. After all, Mr. Cassano and his colleagues apparently assumed, they would never have to pay any claims. ~~~ Since A.I.G. itself was a highly rated company, it did not have to post collateral on the insurance it wrote, analysts said. That made the contracts all the more profitable. ~~~ These insurance products were known as “credit default swaps,” or C.D.S.’s in Wall Street argot, and the London unit used them to turn itself into a cash register. ~~~ The unit’s revenue rose to $3.26 billion in 2005 from $737 million in 1999. Operating income at the unit also grew, rising to 17.5 percent of A.I.G.’s overall operating income in 2005, compared with 4.2 percent in 1999. ~~~ Profit margins on the business were enormous. In 2002, operating income was 44 percent of revenue; in 2005, it reached 83 percent. ~~~ Mr. Cassano and his colleagues minted tidy fortunes during these high-cotton years. Since 2001, compensation at the small unit ranged from $423 million to $616 million each year, according to corporate filings. That meant that on average each person in the unit made more than $1 million a year. ~~~ In fact, compensation expenses took a large percentage of the unit’s revenue. In lean years it was 33 percent; in fatter ones 46 percent. Over all, A.I.G. Financial Products paid its employees $3.56 billion during the last seven years. ~~~ The London unit’s reach was also vast. While clients and counterparties remain closely guarded secrets in the derivatives trade, Mr. Cassano talked publicly about how proud he was of his customer list. ~~~ At the 2007 conference he noted that his company worked with a “global swath” of top-notch entities that included “banks and investment banks, pension funds, endowments, foundations, insurance companies, hedge funds, money managers, high-net-worth individuals, municipalities and sovereigns and supranationals.” ~~~ Of course, as this intricate skein expanded over the years, it meant that the participants were linked to one another by contracts that existed for the most part inside the financial world’s version of a black box. ~~~ Goldman Sachs was a member of A.I.G.’s derivatives club, according to people familiar with the operation. ~~~ Few knew of Goldman’s exposure to A.I.G. When the insurer’s flameout became public, David A. Viniar, Goldman’s chief financial officer, assured analysts on Sept. 16 that his firm’s exposure was “immaterial,” a view that the company reiterated in an interview. ~~~ Later that same day, the government announced its two-year, $85 billion loan to A.I.G., offering it a chance to sell its assets in an orderly fashion and theoretically repay taxpayers for their trouble. The plan saved the insurer’s counterparties but decimated its shareholders. ~~~ Lucas van Praag, a Goldman spokesman, declined to detail how badly hurt his firm might have been had A.I.G. collapsed two weeks ago. He disputed the calculation that Goldman had $20 billion worth of counterparty risk to A.I.G., saying the figure failed to account for collateral and hedges that Goldman deployed to reduce its risk. ~~~ Regarding Mr. Blankfein’s presence at the Fed during talks about an A.I.G. bailout, he said: “I think it would be a mistake to read into it that he was there because of our own interests. We were engaged because of the implications to the entire system.” ~~~ Mr. van Praag declined to comment on what communications, if any, took place between Mr. Blankfein and the Treasury secretary, Mr. Paulson, during the bailout discussions. ~~~ A Treasury spokeswoman declined to comment about the A.I.G. rescue and Goldman’s role. The government recently allowed Goldman to change its regulatory status to help bolster its finances amid the market turmoil.


    9/27/2008 12:29:49 PM
Rick
More on link
 
Well the FDIC and SIPC protect deposits in banks and brokerage accounts. I dont know if depositers in other countries have this protection but it does provide a safety net for most americans and foreign investors.
 
tomahawk6 said:
Well the FDIC and SIPC protect deposits in banks and brokerage accounts. I dont know if depositers in other countries have this protection but it does provide a safety net for most americans and foreign investors.

I am under the impression from reports last week, that if the foreign banks maintained personnel and outlets in the US for the purposes of banking/investment then they are eligible......this would probably leave those foreign investors that bought sub prime mortgage packages (or whatever they are called) out in the cold...
 
According to info on the deal I have seen[it seems to change] the Treasury will be able to buy the mortgage backed securities from any entity. I want to stress that these mortgage securities are not worthless.People are still making their mortgage payments.Property values are down now but they will rebound in a few years.So if you dont have to sell them right now,then in time they can be sold at a profit.

I am more concerned by the credit crisis that this plan may not address at all.Cash right now is king.In many parts of the country you cant buy a car new or used. This may shut down factories,layoffs and it will spread.I think this is worst case.
 
tomahawk6 said:
Well the FDIC and SIPC protect deposits in banks and brokerage accounts. I dont know if depositers in other countries have this protection but it does provide a safety net for most americans and foreign investors.


My understanding is that FDIC insures up to $100k in bank deposits and SIPC insures up to $500k for brokerage accounts.

If a brokerage goes bankrupt, it might be some time before you can recover your stock or bond certificates if they are holding them for you.  So what happens if you want to sell them in the meantime?  You can't because they are frozen until the bankruptcy gets settled.  Some have suggested that it is prudent to obtain your certificates from the brokerages (probably for a small fee) if you have worries about their financial state.  This way you can sell them when you want to.

The Fed has also stated that they will insure money market mutual fund accounts.  Does this mean money market managers can take on extra risk to obtain higher returns with no penalty for poor judgement?

This market is becoming so difficult to invest in with ad hoc rule changes and intervention causing unintended consequences.
 
tomahawk6 said:
According to info on the deal I have seen[it seems to change] the Treasury will be able to buy the mortgage backed securities from any entity. I want to stress that these mortgage securities are not worthless.People are still making their mortgage payments.Property values are down now but they will rebound in a few years.So if you dont have to sell them right now,then in time they can be sold at a profit.

I am more concerned by the credit crisis that this plan may not address at all.Cash right now is king.In many parts of the country you cant buy a car new or used. This may shut down factories,layoffs and it will spread.I think this is worst case.

Have you heard anything but tripe on what they are going to do, if anything, on the high interest rates these subprime mortgages are demanding on resigning? If they don't stop the defaulting, nothing is going to change in this market....
 
The actual default rate is not all that high – 2 or 3%, I think, but 2 or 3% of the US mortgage market is a HUGE number. The problem is, of course, focused on the $1.5± Trillion sub-prime mortgage market where the default rates is more like 10-20%.

The problem is that many (most?) US mortgages (worth $12 Trillion) have shrunk in value and too many Americans were using their home mortgage as an ATM – refinancing as, years-after-year just a few years ago, home values rose. That’s the source of the very serious credit crunch.

The other problem with the US housing situation is that there is now a huge oversupply of nearly new homes on the market which means that the market for brand new homes has all but dried up which means, in turn, that all those well paid, low skill home building jobs are gone, too. That means less demand for new cars and new textiles and new almost anything - which means more job losses. I repeat: downward spiral, anyone?

We are not at the “bottom” yet.

 
If that is true ER, I don't see this bailout doing zip for solving the problem for anybody but friends of congress and senate....
 
GAP said:
If that is true ER, I don't see this bailout doing zip for solving the problem for anybody but friends of congress and senate....

The bailout (combined with other measures) needs to address two issues:

1. Easing the credit crisis by putting 'liquidity,' real money, back into the market so that people can buy 'stuff' - preferably stuff made in America by American workers, but stuff all the same; and

2. Prevent panic by 'investors' who, when collected together, morph into a timid beast with a very, very low IQ.

Both are aimed at helping 'ordinary' Americans on Main Street - not the bunches of crooks and bunglers on Wall Street and K Street.
 
Tripe Gap ? I think I have a better handle on the situation than most. We have had housing dips in the past and everytime the market comes back.The coasts seem to see bigger swings than the middle of the country. We bought our house 9-10 years ago for around $350,000 and today its worth close to $800,000 at least thats wht my property tax is based on. The house may or may not sell for that today but it will in time. A cousin in California sold their 1400sf house for $1.4m now thats just crazy.They moved back to the midwest found a 4000sf house on a lake for $600,000 and banked the difference.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
The bailout (combined with other measures) needs to address two issues:

1. Easing the credit crisis by putting 'liquidity,' real money, back into the market so that people can buy 'stuff' - preferably stuff made in America by American workers, but stuff all the same; and

2. Prevent panic by 'investors'  who, when collected together, morph into a timid beast with a very, very low IQ.

Both are aimed at helping 'ordinary' Americans on Main Street - not the bunches of crooks and bunglers on Wall Street and K Street.

Giving these companies money with getting back nothing solves the liquidity problem how? Is the government physically buying stakes in these companies or physically buying defunct mortgages? I still don't see where just putting money into circulation benefits anybody but the companies receiving it.

when they took over fanny Mae and Freddy mac, they took a huge chunk of equity to compensate......as far as I can see there is no such thing anticipated here.

 
tomahawk6 said:
. We bought our house 9-10 years ago for around $350,000 and today its worth close to $800,000

..and in 5 years it could be worth 50,000.
 
GAP said:
Giving these companies money with getting back nothing solves the liquidity problem how? Is the government physically buying stakes in these companies or physically buying defunct mortgages? I still don't see where just putting money into circulation benefits anybody but the companies receiving it.

when they took over fanny Mae and Freddy mac, they took a huge chunk of equity to compensate......as far as I can see there is no such thing anticipated here.


While they will get some ‘security,’ I think this part is, mainly, about buying up he bad debt and writing it off or down.

This article, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail explains what one reporter thinks Hank Paulsen and Nancy Pelosi are saying:

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080928.wbailout0928/BNStory/Business/home
Congress expected to pass $700-billion rescue package

JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS

Associated Press

September 28, 2008 at 1:57 PM EDT

WASHINGTON — Key lawmakers who struck a post-midnight deal on a $700-billion bailout for the financial industry predicted Sunday it would pass Congress, putting in place the largest government intervention in markets since the Great Depression.

Negotiators sought to iron out the final shape of the legislation, which House Republicans still had to review. It was their fierce opposition to a federal rescue that nearly torpedoed an emerging bipartisan pact late in the week.

But officials in both parties were hopeful for a House vote Monday, and the two presidential candidates said they probably would support it.

Under the rescue plan, the government would pump as much as $700-billion into beleaguered financial firms that are starving for cash, taking over huge amounts of devalued assets from the companies in the hopes of unlocking frozen credit.

The proposal is designed to end a vicious downward spiral that has battered all levels of the economy, in which hundreds of billions of dollars in investments based on mortgages gone bad have cramped banks' willingness to lend.

“This is the bottom line: If we do not do this, the trauma, the chaos and the disruption to everyday Americans' lives will be overwhelming, and that's a price we can't afford to risk paying,” Sen. Judd Gregg, the chief Senate Republican in the talks, told The Associated Press on Sunday. “I do think we'll be able to pass it, and it will be a bipartisan vote.”

A breakthrough came when Democrats agreed to incorporate a GOP demand — letting the government insure some bad home loans rather than buy them — designed to limit the amount of federal money used in the rescue.

Another important bargain, vital to attracting support from centrist Democrats and Republicans who are fiscal hawks, would require that the government, after five years, submit a plan to Congress on how to recoup any losses.

The plan would give Congress a stronger hand in controlling the money than the Bush administration wanted. Lawmakers could block half the money and force the president to jump through some hoops before using it all. The government could get at $250-billion immediately, $100-billion more if the president certified it was necessary, and the last $350-billion with a separate certification — and subject to a congressional resolution of disapproval.

Still, the resolution could be vetoed by the president, meaning it would take extra-large congressional majorities to stop it.

The presidential nominees came behind the outlines of the bailout.

“This is something that all of us will swallow hard and go forward with,” said Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona. “The option of doing nothing is simply not an acceptable option.”

His Democratic rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, sought credit for taxpayer safeguards added to the initial proposal from the Bush administration. “I was pushing very hard and involved in shaping those provisions,” he said.

House Republicans said they're still reviewing the plan.

“We are not ready to say that a deal is done,” Rep. Eric Cantor.

Congressional leaders announced a tentative deal in the early hours of Sunday morning after marathon negotiations at the Capitol.

“We've still got more to do to finalize it, but I think we're there,” said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who also participated in the negotiations in the Capitol.

Executives whose companies benefit from the rescue could not get “golden parachutes” and would see their pay packages limited.

The government would receive stock warrants in return for the bailout relief, giving taxpayers a chance to share in financial companies' future profits.

To help struggling homeowners, the plan requires the government to try renegotiating the bad mortgages it acquires with the aim of lowering borrowers' monthly payments so they can keep their homes.

“Nobody got everything they wanted,” said Democratic Rep. Barney Frank of Massachusetts, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. He predicted it would pass, though not by a large majority.

Mr. Gregg said he thinks taxpayers will come out as financial winners. “I don't think we're going to lose money, myself. We may, it's possible, but I doubt it in the long run,” he said.

Mr. Frank appeared on C-SPAN, Mr. Obama was on CBS' Face the Nation, while Mr. McCain spoke on This Week on ABC.

I think the answer to your question, an answer, I’m guessing you don’t want to hear, is: “the government would pump as much as $700-billion into beleaguered financial firms that are starving for cash, taking over huge amounts of devalued assets from the companies in the hopes of unlocking frozen credit.” The rationale is: ”If we [the US government] do not do this, the trauma, the chaos and the disruption to everyday Americans' lives will be overwhelming, and that's a price we can't afford to risk paying”.

The debt is ‘devalued’ – some is quite worthless, a lot has 10, perhaps even 60% of its value. We’re not going to know exactly how much worthless debt was, in effect, purchased from rich bankers/investors for real money by the long suffering US taxpayer until several years from now – by which time, Paulson, Pelosi et al hope, we they will have forgotten.

T-6 is right. For most Americans the ‘lost’ values in their homes and portfolios will return – not this year, maybe not until 2010 or even later, but measured over any 20+ year period the US economy always has gotten bigger and better and there is no reason to believe the same will not happen over a period that embraces 2005-2015.

 
Edward is quite right about the historical value in the housing market. Stock prices fluctuate. If you are a long term holder of say Exxon it doesnt matter much what todays price is. It only matters if you are going to sell your stock.People/pension funds that invested in Lehman have seen their positions wiped out. This bailout wont help them. The Treasury will be buying the MBS's and others assets and then will hold the securities until such time as the markets reset and the paper regains value.Right now defaults in the mortgage market is under 2%. Those properties are listed with a real estate agent and available for purchase- if the buyer has cash or can get credit. This is where the credit crisis has to be resolved. Buying foreclosed properties will make a person pretty well off when the credit markets are solvent again.Until that time keep your assets liquid.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
The bailout (combined with other measures) needs to address two issues:

1. Easing the credit crisis by putting 'liquidity,' real money, back into the market so that people can buy 'stuff' - preferably stuff made in America by American workers, but stuff all the same; and

2. Prevent panic by 'investors' who, when collected together, morph into a timid beast with a very, very low IQ.

Both are aimed at helping 'ordinary' Americans on Main Street - not the bunches of crooks and bunglers on Wall Street and K Street.

"Just-released Federal Reserve Flow of Funds data show that, beyond mortgages, there are another $20.4 trillion in private sector
consumer and corporate debts, plus $2.7 trillion in municipal securities outstanding."

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/files/documents/Final-Bailout-White-Paper.pdf

This amounts to debts about $68,000 per U.S. person not counting mortgage debts, the national debt of $10 trillion and $50 trillion in social security and medicade debts.  All told it is likely in $100 trillion range for $300k debt per U.S. person and rising.  This simply is too much debt and is not sustainable. 

The U.S. consumer seems to have been living well beyond their means for the last 30 or so years and exponentially increasing the last 5 years by using the "free money" from their housing ATM machines.  Increasing credit to the market so that people can buy more 'stuff' is not what is needed.  In the short run it just keeps the boat afloat a little longer but it doesn't solve the underlying problems.  Most of the 'stuff' is made in China anyways so China receives the production benefits.

What is needed is for the U.S. consumer to start living within their means, reduce spending on 'stuff' that returns no value, paying off debt, saving money to reinvest in self liquidating debt asset businesses and increase productivity.  China is currently handing the U.S. and the western world their economic asses.  But the U.S. may get the last laugh if they default on all their pretty paper they handed China for tangible goods.  Then again the children's toys from China are tainted with lead, not to mention the poison in baby milk formula.

The U.S. taxes savings and provides tax rebates for debts (mortgages).  The U.S. rewards corporations that have made poor, bad, or outright fraudulent decisions with bailouts and penalizes the taxpayer and saver through the "hidden" inflationary tax.  The more incompetent and fraudulent you are the more you are rewarded, the more honest and hard working you are the more you are exploited.  The incentives are in the wrong place.  Gains are capitalized to the elite, losses are socialized to the masses.

The U.S. is a great nation and have some of the best people I know and will recover and get through this crisis.  The economic system needs to be restructured starting with a sound money policy.
 
I agree, pretty much up and down the line, with Lockness’ assessment:

• $300k debt per U.S. person and rising.  This simply is too much debt and is not sustainable.  X

• The U.S. consumer seems to have been living well beyond their means for the last 30 or so years by using the "free money" from their housing ATM machines.  X

• What is needed is for the U.S. consumer to start living within their means, reduce spending on 'stuff' that returns no value, paying off debt, saving money to reinvest and increase productivity.

• China is currently handing the U.S. and the western world their economic asses. X

• The U.S. may get the last laugh if they default on all their pretty paper they handed China for tangible goods. ?

• The U.S. taxes savings and provides tax rebates for debts (mortgages). X

• The U.S. rewards corporations that have made poor, bad, or outright fraudulent decisions with bailouts and penalizes the taxpayer and saver through the "hidden" inflationary tax. X

• The U.S. is a great nation and have some of the best people I know and will recover and get through this crisis.

• The economic system needs to be restructured starting with a sound money policy.

BUT I cannot imagine the impact of a major US default on its debt. I’m not sure the global economy, not, at least, as I understand it, could absorb the impact.

My mean, cold Scots soul would be satisfied if we allowed the chips to fall where they might – and, by the way, I hold (thankfully not too many) shares in Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon Corp, JPMorgan Chase & Co, MetLife, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo & Co. But, as with a default on the debt, I have trouble imagining the impacts – and there would be plenty of ‘em: economic, social, political, even strategic - of a broad, general Wall Street collapse.

I’m guessing that Bush et al are taking the best consensus advice – most of which is coming, I admit, from Wall Street insiders, Paulson included – and doing what they can to solve the problems they can see.

 
The advantages of holding the world's reserve currency is the U.S. will never default on their foreign debts in a classical sense.  They just print more dollars as needed to pay the bills.  If we all could be so lucky.

Its been 37 years since the U.S. currency was taken off the gold standard.  The question is how many more months/years can this system be sustained?
 
But printing more money takes us back to another very unpleasant experience, the 1970s, doesn't it?

 
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