US, NATO Outta Afghanistan 2021

[The Bread Guy]

Interesting, and expected if true.

More on that from IND media:

Amid a complete takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban, a resistance force, led by Ahmad Massoud, son of late Afghan politician Ahmad Shah Massoud, is reportedly gathering strength in Panjshir Valley. The flag of the ‘Northern Alliance’ or the United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanista has been hoisted for the time since 2001 in Panjshir valley.

(...)

Afghan soldiers, who had managed to hide themselves from Taliban troops, are also apparently beginning to arrive in Panjshir at the call of Ahmad Massoud, the Twitter user shared in another post ...

 

[TangoTwoBravo]

Interesting, and expected if true.

I imagine that former Northern Alliance power brokers have been consolidating their strength over the past months. Protect their vital ground as they saw the way that things were going. I imagine that the sudden evacuation of Bagram was a stimulus. Avoid wasting their strength in a losing fight for Kabul.

 

[Infanteer]

I saw elsewhere that Ahmed Massoud was already in India shoring up support. The Great Game continues....

 

[Altair]

More on that from IND media:

Called it.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

As my friend aptly pointed out, the aircrew of the C17's are likley going to be going through some serious PTSD from people falling off their planes and forced to say sorry to those left behind.

 

[Weinie]

I saw elsewhere that Ahmed Massoud was already in India shoring up support. The Great Game continues....

Except that this time around, the Taliban have access to the entire armoury that the US left behind, or captured from the ANSF. If they use it wisely, and Massoud has nobody shoring him up, massing Taliban forces in the North will lead to a quick capitulation, or 25 more years of civil war.

 

[Altair]

Except that this time around, the Taliban have access to the entire armoury that the US left behind, or captured from the ANSF. If they use it wisely, and Massoud has nobody shoring him up, massing Taliban forces in the North will lead to a quick capitulation, or 25 more years of civil war.

The best strongest military on the planet couldn't fully pacify that nation, I don't think the Taliban with the leftovers from the ANSF will have much better luck in the long run.

 

[Jarnhamar]

The best strongest military on the planet couldn't fully pacify that nation, I don't think the Taliban with the leftovers from the ANSF will have much better luck in the long run.

The Taliban have a different set of rules of engagement than the US.

 

[Altair]

The Taliban have a different set of rules of engagement than the US.

So did the russians, and the taliban after them, and yet that country continued to fracture time after time.

A mix of ethnic differences, tribal loyalties, and geography tends to make the region impossible to rule.

 

[Infanteer]

Except that this time around, the Taliban have access to the entire armoury that the US left behind, or captured from the ANSF. If they use it wisely, and Massoud has nobody shoring him up, massing Taliban forces in the North will lead to a quick capitulation, or 25 more years of civil war.

I'm not sure a stack of M4s and some Humvees will tip the balance....

 

[dimsum]

I'm not sure a stack of M4s and some Humvees will tip the balance....

With what fuel?

 

[OldSolduer]

With what fuel?

Gotta have armorers and vehicle techs.

 

[Kilted]

So did the russians, and the taliban after them, and yet that country continued to fracture time after time.

A mix of ethnic differences, tribal loyalties, and geography tends to make the region impossible to rule.

Maybe perhaps breaking Afganistan into a couple of different countries would have been a better idea.

 

[MilEME09]

Maybe perhaps breaking Afganistan into a couple of different countries would have been a better idea.

Or have the ANA structured like the USNG, provincial armies instead of a national one. They would of been more likely to stand and fight if it was for their clan.

 

[Altair]

Maybe perhaps breaking Afganistan into a couple of different countries would have been a better idea.

you're right, until you see how the ethnic breakdown of the region is. Everything is fine until you notice half the Pashtun population/territory lies in Pakistan.

You have independent Pashtun Afghanistan and suddenly Pashtun Pakistan will want to join it.

One of the reasons Pakistan will never let it happen.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Massoud has nobody shoring him up

Well. There's an opportunity.

 

[Kilted]

you're right, until you see how the ethnic breakdown of the region is. Everything is fine until you notice half the Pashtun population/territory lies in Pakistan.

You have independent Pashtun Afghanistan and suddenly Pashtun Pakistan will want to join it.

One of the reasons Pakistan will never let it happen.

You would have to get creative with it, it wouldn't be perfect. Perhaps some areas could groups could join their parent country, Ubeckistan for example.

 

[Altair]

You would have to get creative with it, it wouldn't be perfect. Perhaps some areas could groups could join their parent country, Ubeckistan for example.

At what point would making new arbitrary lines on a map cause as many problems as you are trying to solve?

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Good for MSNBC for putting this guy on.... This Afghanistan vet just went nuclear on MSNBC, live, as they tried to defend Biden, and it’s a must-watch

 

[FJAG]

Or have the ANA structured like the USNG, provincial armies instead of a national one. They would of been more likely to stand and fight if it was for their clan.

That's what the Afghan Militia Force (or Afghan Military Forces depending on which book you read) was in 2003 when we started dismantling it in favour of a "national security force" so that the militia and their regional leaders would not threaten the national government. As we disarmed them in 2003-4 they turned in all their tanks, FROGs, SCUDs and BM 31s. We gave them back a handful of D 30s.

Hindsight's 20/20 and a bitch.