US Presidential Election 2024 - Trump vs Harris - Vote Hard with a Vengence

[dimsum]

So Country over Party, and over self (if that makes sense).

It does, and that’s the way people should ideally vote.

 

[dimsum]

That is certainly a tactic.

 

[Cloud Cover]

I think, under some analysis, that a lot of people won't talk about a very large elephant in the room. …

Much like 2017, this is a hold-your-nose election.

Except that in the US, one can vote for a President/VP team that deep down you might not actually support, and then reign the dirty buggers in with your Senate and HoR votes.

To wit: Polls on US House and Senate races paint a worrying picture for Democrats

 

[brihard]

First polls have closed in portions of Indiana and Kentucky.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Well, here's proof that the Democrats are in trouble.... they've turned the Amish into Trump supporters!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1853849588798722545

 

[brihard]

Second batch of polls just closed, including swing state Georgia.

The seven states to watch by polls closing time (all Eastern time) are:
Georgia: 7 pm
North Carolina: 7:30 pm
Pennsylvania: 8 pm
Arizona: 9 pm
Michigan 9 pm
Wisconsin: 9 pm
Nevada: 10 pm

Those seven are the states realistically considered in play. Most significant is Pennsylvania, which unfortunately will probably have somewhat slower results.

Iowa came up a couple days ago as possibly in contention based on the historically pretty solid polling by Ann Selzer. I’m still not putting stock in it, but for the sake of curiosity, closes at 9 pm. Iowa is six electoral votes; so a flip would change the tally by 12 in the Democrats’ favour. Again unlikely, but not outside of the realm of plausibility.

Any other state is not generally considered in play, and any upset results would be potentially very significant.

 

[dapaterson]

Joke of the night:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1853920073792286809

 

[dapaterson]

The hero America needs tonight, as the votes get tallied:

 

[ArmyRick]

The hero America needs tonight, as the votes get tallied:

Gonna be a long night.
"788 ah ah ah...789 ah ah ah...790 ah ah ah..."

 

[Remius]

Trump seems to be doing what he needs to do so far.

 

[Halifax Tar]

178 - 81 for Trump so far on the CBC.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

178 - 81 for Trump so far on the CBC

This is still very early on. I hear a friend call it the "Red Mirage" of early returns that can flip very quickly once all the votes are counted.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Means nothing until the swing states are called.

One thing to note... it doesn't seem like the enthusiasm that some of the suburban ridings in places like NC, Virginia, etc are there this time for Kamala like they were for Biden and Obama.

We will see of this holds true in other parts of the rust belt and Great Lakes. My assumption is it will.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

This is still very early on. I hear a friend call it the "Red Mirage" of early returns that can flip very quickly once all the votes are counted.

Right now you could say that both the Dems and Republicans are each guaranteed around 230ish College Votes a piece and it's a guarantee. That leaves 78ish votes that are up for grabs.

 

[Halifax Tar]

This is still very early on. I hear a friend call it the "Red Mirage" of early returns that can flip very quickly once all the votes are counted.

Damn time change lol

Its 0618hrs on the 6th for me right now...

 

[Fishbone Jones]

 

[Halifax Tar]

So help me out here...

This tracker:

U.S. election results 2024

Get live results from the U.S. presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. See if the Democrats or Republicans win control of the House and the Senate.

newsinteractives.cbc.ca

Is that electoral college votes won or leading in ?

Because the gap is widening.

207 - 91 for Trump now...

 

[Navy_Pete]

So help me out here...

This tracker:

U.S. election results 2024

Get live results from the U.S. presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. See if the Democrats or Republicans win control of the House and the Senate.

newsinteractives.cbc.ca

Is that electoral college votes won or leading in ?

Because the gap is widening.

207 - 91 for Trump now...

It seems to be the 'won', which I think they are doing when the uncounted votes won't change the current result.

A few forecasts are showing Trump winning but seems like it will still be close on the popular vote with some weirdness on the EC numbers with the states.

 

[KevinB]

No idea how the CBC is doing it. But down here there seems to be a lot of variation in the way things are called.

But one thing is clear, there are a slew more Trump votes than I think anyone had expected.

 

[brihard]

Projected win. When they get mathematically confident in the inevitability of a result, various media groups will call it. They rarely miss those calls. Doesn’t mean it’s a done deal, but it does mean the data needs are willing to stake their reputation that they’re right.

I’ve been tuned out for the past hour and a half. Looks like of the swing states, Trump got North Carolina and Georgia so far. Everything else is still too close to call.

That one Iowa poll was a total miss, incidentally. Trump handily won it, as expected.

Pennsylvania’s the big prize. Trump has a modest lead, with a lot of mail in votes still being tallied and a big tranche of results due around midnight. Similar dynamic to last election; those votes should advantage Harris, will those early votes break heavily enough in her favour? Without Pennsylvania she’s probably done.

Wisconsin’s a narrow Trump lead at about 2/3 reporting.

Harris has a fairly strong lead in Michigan but only 1/3 reporting.

Arizona’s tied within 3k votes with 1/2 reporting. (Kari Lake, for those who remember her), seems to be getting destroyed for senate there, incidentally)

Nevada just closed. No results yet, and the polls there were tied coming in to the election.

Bed time for me. Hopefully it’s able to be called by the morning.