- Reaction score
- 5,947
- Points
- 1,260
I agree, generally, with several of the ‘findings’ of the Good Grey Globe’s panel of strategists as reported in this article, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail web site:
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081224.WStrategists1225/BNStory/politics
The good, the (mostly) bad, and the faint signs of hope
Our strategists panel looks back on the year in Canadian politics
Globe and Mail Update
December 26, 2008 at 1:46 PM EST
What was the smartest strategic move of 2008?
Scott Reid (former communications director for Paul Martin): Stephen Harper's decision to call the 2008 election. Although he failed to secure the majority he sought, imagine the hurt he'd be feeling if he were lurching toward a re-election campaign in the current economic carnage? Then again, don't imagine. Just wait nine months — that's a good bet as to when we'll next be on the campaign trail. (Runner-Up: Liberal leadership contenders Dominic LeBlanc and Bob Rae putting personal ambition second to the public and party interest by stepping aside and allowing the Official Opposition to resolve its leadership situation in favour of the clearly preferred Michael Ignatieff.)
Greg Lyle (former chief of staff for Gary Filmon and adviser to Mike Harris): It's a toss-up between Jean Charest's election timing and Ed Stelmach's decision to embrace change in his election. The were no really admirable federal moves; the cleverest one was the Tories' rebound against the coalition as a sell-out to separatists, although the long-term repercussions don't make it a smart move.
Gerald Caplan (former NDP campaign manager): Stephen Harper's decision to call an election, even though it meant flouting his own fixed-date legislation and commitment.
What was the worst strategic mistake?
Reid: Stephane Dion's insistence on making the Green Shift the centrepiece of the Liberal Party's electoral offering. Everyone told him "don't do it." He did it anyway. And it resulted in the worst-ever Liberal result. If Mr. Harper hadn't blown his mid-campaign response to the financial crisis, the Liberals would have done even worse. (Runners-up: Mr. Harper's - or Guy Giorno's or whoever the hell it was - decision to respond to the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression with an economic update that offered no substantive response, phony surplus projections and the most venal dose of partisanship in recent memory, and Liz May's brave but fundamentally stupid decision to run in Central Nova against Peter Mackay.)
Lyle: Green Shift.
Caplan: Mr. Harper's intervention in Jim Flaherty's November fiscal update. The fact that it ended up strengthening his political position was entirely unforeseen.
What was the most underreported political story?
Lyle: The role of Doug Finley and his direct contact and organization team in winning the last federal election. Ridings like Kenora were picked off by the Tories like they were snipers. The Liberals are simply uncompetitive in that arena.
Reid: The utter failure of the Special Panel On Afghanistan to properly diagnose the war's future. John Manley argued that Canadians were owed a reasonable strategy for success if Parliament were to request an extension of our Kandahar mission. His panel then answered its own challenge by saying it would take an additional 1,000 allied troops, medium helicopter lift capacity and a more transparently communicated government policy. The last of these recommendations was plainly ignored. And the first two prescriptions were swiftly revealed to be wholly insufficient. By September, American generals were publicly arguing that more than 10,000 additional soldiers were required just to keep the situation stable and most experts now agree that there may soon have to be negotiations with the Taliban. In fairness, a variety of arguments could have been reasonably employed to support an extended tour of duty in Kandahar. But the fact remains that the analysis, recommendations and rationale upon which Parliament actually hung its hat cannot be honestly said to stand the test of time. (Runner-up: Mr. Harper's personal lawyer in the Cadman lawsuit resigning his position.)
Caplan: The link between government economic policies and the ever-increasing financial woes of millions of Canadians.
What was the biggest lesson for our political parties?
Lyle: Humility, one would hope. All the mainstream parties lost goodwill in English Canada. The Liberals and the Tories lost the most. They just are not connecting with what real people care about. The pre-Christmas power play was particularly disastrous. Unfortunately, because both Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff came out ahead politically, the lesson was likely lost.
Reid: People can be inspired and excited about politics. Just look at Barack Obama.
Caplan: As William Goldman (Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid) once said about the secret of success in Hollywood: "No one knows anything."
What was the year's most encouraging political trend?
Lyle: I am not encouraged.
Caplan: The Obama victory and the faint hope that it might have implications for our mediocre political culture.
Reid: The insistence by Michael Ignatieff that Stephen Harper scrap his economic update and offer Canadians an honest outlook.
What was the year's most worrisome political trend?
Caplan: The abysmal level of our political discourse. The fact that the PM - and maybe any politician - can reverse himself on sacred principle after sacred principle and suffer no political consequence speaks volumes about the minimal expectations the public holds of the political class.
Reid: The economy. Forget the politics. Forget the machinations. We lost 70,000 jobs in one month and the smartest people in the world say it's the worst thing they've ever seen. If all we have to fear is fear itself, then there's a lot to be afraid of.
Lyle: The ongoing triumph of crass political machinations over any type of idealism.
Coming soon: Lyle, Reid and Caplan look ahead to 2009
--------------------
Specifically, the panel is right in these assessments:
• “Stephen Harper's decision to call the 2008 election” was the smartest strategic move of 2008 (Reid & Caplan);
• “Stéphane Dion's insistence on making the Green Shift the centrepiece of the Liberal Party's electoral offering” was the worst strategic mistake (Reid & Lyle);
• “The role of Doug Finley and his direct contact and organization team in winning the last federal election” was the most underreported political story (Lyle);
(The fact that most of you never heard a word about it proves his point.)
• “The abysmal level of our political discourse” and “The economy … If all we have to fear is fear itself, then there's a lot to be afraid of” are tied as the year's most worrisome political trend (Caplan & Reid).
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081224.WStrategists1225/BNStory/politics
The good, the (mostly) bad, and the faint signs of hope
Our strategists panel looks back on the year in Canadian politics
Globe and Mail Update
December 26, 2008 at 1:46 PM EST
What was the smartest strategic move of 2008?
Scott Reid (former communications director for Paul Martin): Stephen Harper's decision to call the 2008 election. Although he failed to secure the majority he sought, imagine the hurt he'd be feeling if he were lurching toward a re-election campaign in the current economic carnage? Then again, don't imagine. Just wait nine months — that's a good bet as to when we'll next be on the campaign trail. (Runner-Up: Liberal leadership contenders Dominic LeBlanc and Bob Rae putting personal ambition second to the public and party interest by stepping aside and allowing the Official Opposition to resolve its leadership situation in favour of the clearly preferred Michael Ignatieff.)
Greg Lyle (former chief of staff for Gary Filmon and adviser to Mike Harris): It's a toss-up between Jean Charest's election timing and Ed Stelmach's decision to embrace change in his election. The were no really admirable federal moves; the cleverest one was the Tories' rebound against the coalition as a sell-out to separatists, although the long-term repercussions don't make it a smart move.
Gerald Caplan (former NDP campaign manager): Stephen Harper's decision to call an election, even though it meant flouting his own fixed-date legislation and commitment.
What was the worst strategic mistake?
Reid: Stephane Dion's insistence on making the Green Shift the centrepiece of the Liberal Party's electoral offering. Everyone told him "don't do it." He did it anyway. And it resulted in the worst-ever Liberal result. If Mr. Harper hadn't blown his mid-campaign response to the financial crisis, the Liberals would have done even worse. (Runners-up: Mr. Harper's - or Guy Giorno's or whoever the hell it was - decision to respond to the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression with an economic update that offered no substantive response, phony surplus projections and the most venal dose of partisanship in recent memory, and Liz May's brave but fundamentally stupid decision to run in Central Nova against Peter Mackay.)
Lyle: Green Shift.
Caplan: Mr. Harper's intervention in Jim Flaherty's November fiscal update. The fact that it ended up strengthening his political position was entirely unforeseen.
What was the most underreported political story?
Lyle: The role of Doug Finley and his direct contact and organization team in winning the last federal election. Ridings like Kenora were picked off by the Tories like they were snipers. The Liberals are simply uncompetitive in that arena.
Reid: The utter failure of the Special Panel On Afghanistan to properly diagnose the war's future. John Manley argued that Canadians were owed a reasonable strategy for success if Parliament were to request an extension of our Kandahar mission. His panel then answered its own challenge by saying it would take an additional 1,000 allied troops, medium helicopter lift capacity and a more transparently communicated government policy. The last of these recommendations was plainly ignored. And the first two prescriptions were swiftly revealed to be wholly insufficient. By September, American generals were publicly arguing that more than 10,000 additional soldiers were required just to keep the situation stable and most experts now agree that there may soon have to be negotiations with the Taliban. In fairness, a variety of arguments could have been reasonably employed to support an extended tour of duty in Kandahar. But the fact remains that the analysis, recommendations and rationale upon which Parliament actually hung its hat cannot be honestly said to stand the test of time. (Runner-up: Mr. Harper's personal lawyer in the Cadman lawsuit resigning his position.)
Caplan: The link between government economic policies and the ever-increasing financial woes of millions of Canadians.
What was the biggest lesson for our political parties?
Lyle: Humility, one would hope. All the mainstream parties lost goodwill in English Canada. The Liberals and the Tories lost the most. They just are not connecting with what real people care about. The pre-Christmas power play was particularly disastrous. Unfortunately, because both Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff came out ahead politically, the lesson was likely lost.
Reid: People can be inspired and excited about politics. Just look at Barack Obama.
Caplan: As William Goldman (Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid) once said about the secret of success in Hollywood: "No one knows anything."
What was the year's most encouraging political trend?
Lyle: I am not encouraged.
Caplan: The Obama victory and the faint hope that it might have implications for our mediocre political culture.
Reid: The insistence by Michael Ignatieff that Stephen Harper scrap his economic update and offer Canadians an honest outlook.
What was the year's most worrisome political trend?
Caplan: The abysmal level of our political discourse. The fact that the PM - and maybe any politician - can reverse himself on sacred principle after sacred principle and suffer no political consequence speaks volumes about the minimal expectations the public holds of the political class.
Reid: The economy. Forget the politics. Forget the machinations. We lost 70,000 jobs in one month and the smartest people in the world say it's the worst thing they've ever seen. If all we have to fear is fear itself, then there's a lot to be afraid of.
Lyle: The ongoing triumph of crass political machinations over any type of idealism.
Coming soon: Lyle, Reid and Caplan look ahead to 2009
--------------------
Specifically, the panel is right in these assessments:
• “Stephen Harper's decision to call the 2008 election” was the smartest strategic move of 2008 (Reid & Caplan);
• “Stéphane Dion's insistence on making the Green Shift the centrepiece of the Liberal Party's electoral offering” was the worst strategic mistake (Reid & Lyle);
• “The role of Doug Finley and his direct contact and organization team in winning the last federal election” was the most underreported political story (Lyle);
(The fact that most of you never heard a word about it proves his point.)
• “The abysmal level of our political discourse” and “The economy … If all we have to fear is fear itself, then there's a lot to be afraid of” are tied as the year's most worrisome political trend (Caplan & Reid).
