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What Might Civil War Be Like?

Good2Golf

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mariomike said:
Or, if there even will be a concession speech?

“Stand back, stand by...” ???
 

Lumber

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QV said:
All style, no substance.  I’ll take substance for 500 please.

Many a leader, even (some times especially) leaders in the military, produce nothing (substance) but provide inspiration and leadership (style) that inspires and galvanizes their companies (sic) to get what's needed done. In a position as high up as president, I'd take style over substance. The actual amount of work one man can  accomplish through sheer grit is very little, especially when you look at the hyper partisanship of the US Political (big P) system, but the amount of aggregate positive effect he/she can have on the masses by being an inspiration is immeasurable.
 

mariomike

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CBH99 said:
Regardless of whether you agreed with his policies or not, Obama really was a class act  :2c:

Dimsum said:
I believe the term is "statesman".

Historians rank Barack Obama the 12th best president of all time, the highest rated since President Ronald Reagan.
https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk03Sm0orYYr8mBL9GzLup-FuPTOpTA%3A1604239537671&ei=scCeX-uoKKTt_QbK_anIBg&q=obama+12th+president&oq=obama+12th+president&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzIJCAAQyQMQFhAeOgQIIxAnUJjXAVjq7gFg9PIBaABwAHgAgAGbAYgBmguSAQQwLjExmAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdpesABAQ&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwirxZv-weHsAhWkdt8KHcp-CmkQ4dUDCAw&uact=5#spf=1604239573006


How will history remember the individual currently occupying the White House?
 

Bruce Monkhouse

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Who really, really, really cares??  Apparently we let all their statues be torn down and buildings renamed anyways.....
 

dimsum

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Bruce Monkhouse said:
Who really, really, really cares??  Apparently we let all their statues be torn down and buildings renamed anyways.....

Those statues and buildings were erected (and named) long after the Civil War. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials#List_of_removals
 

Bruce Monkhouse

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That's great if my post was just in reference to "those" statues in your link.  Don't think Sir John A was a Confederate......
 

daftandbarmy

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Bruce Monkhouse said:
That's great if my post was just in reference to "those" statues in your link.  Don't think Sir John A was a Confederate......

Meanwhile, in Victoria, this incident is being ratcheted up to 'Civil War' levels of histrionics:  ::)

Police look for suspect after controversial mural in Victoria is vandalized

City-sponsored mural became centre of controversy earlier this year because of anti-police acronym

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/controversial-mural-victoria-vandalized-1.5785351
 

Good2Golf

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So let me get this right?  The city sponsored side walk ‘art’ that contained the message ‘All Cops Are Bastards’ (ACAB) and people see that portion of the ‘mural’ being covered as being even more disrespectful than the original (City-supported) message? ???

:facepalm:
 

daftandbarmy

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Good2Golf said:
So let me get this right?  The city sponsored side walk ‘art’ that contained the message ‘All Cops Are Bastards’ (ACAB) and people see that portion of the ‘mural’ as being even more disrespectful than the original (City-supported) message? ???

:facepalm:

I'm triggered!  ;D
 

Humphrey Bogart

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daftandbarmy said:
Meanwhile, in Victoria, this incident is being ratcheted up to 'Civil War' levels of histrionics:  ::)

Police look for suspect after controversial mural in Victoria is vandalized

City-sponsored mural became centre of controversy earlier this year because of anti-police acronym

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/controversial-mural-victoria-vandalized-1.5785351

I'm certain they are going to look very hard for this individual  :rofl:
 

Good2Golf

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daftandbarmy

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Brad Sallows

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>You can read Bill Clinton's hand written handover letter to GW Bush.

The minions, not the presidents, are the classless ones.  There were a lot of stories about pranks by the outgoing staff.  They weren't that big a deal, but the absence of similar stories during the changeovers since then suggest that the subsequent administrations have managed to put a damper on it.  As I wrote, a good transition has become minimum standard.

Setting up unwarranted drawn-out investigations probably doesn't count towards a smooth transition, though.
 

mariomike

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Brad Sallows said:
>You can read Bill Clinton's hand written handover letter to GW Bush.

The minions, not the presidents, are the classless ones.  There were a lot of stories about pranks by the outgoing staff. They weren't that big a deal, but the absence of similar stories during the changeovers since then suggest that the subsequent administrations have managed to put a damper on it.  As I wrote, a good transition has become minimum standard.

Setting up unwarranted drawn-out investigations probably doesn't count towards a smooth transition, though.

Would not be surprised. I'm under the impression that President Clinton ran a pretty slack office, compared to his nine predecessors, who had all served in the military during wartime.

Clinton was not drafted during the Vietnam era.

Just my personal opinion, but I believe he may have had some difficulty instilling discipline in his staff, when he himself had avoided the draft.

Certainly not to his face, but I believe some may have considered him a "draft dodger".
 

Lumber

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Brad Sallows said:
Trudeau has style.  Harper has substance.

Did you not see Harper singing and playing music on stage? HE had substance AND style.
 

a_majoor

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Another look at some of the factors which have been building over the years. Even a convincing Trump 300 EC vote win only kicks the can down to 2024:

http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/america-in-november-2020-a-structural-demographic-view-from-alpha-centauri/

America in November 2020: a Structural-Demographic View from Alpha Centauri
November 01, 2020by Peter Turchincliodynamics, elites, institutions, polarization, political violence, structural-demographic

America in November 2020: a Structural-Demographic View from Alpha Centauri
November 01, 2020by Peter Turchincliodynamics, elites, institutions, polarization, political violence, structural-demographic36 Comments
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As readers of this blog know, structural-demographic theorists distinguish between two causes of revolutions and civil wars: structural trends, which build slowly and are quite predictable, and much less predictable, or even unpredictable, triggering events. In this view, a revolution is like an earthquake or a forest fire. As Mao once wrote, “a single spark can start a prairie fire.” A fire needs fuel—dead plant material—which accumulates gradually as plants die and fall down. But what it needs to start is a spark—somebody throwing away a careless match, or a lighting strike coming from the sky.

Structural trends undermining social resilience in the United States have been building up for decades. It became clear to me 10 years ago (see my 2010 forecast) and has become obvious to most everybody in the last few years. These structural forces are: increasing popular immiseration (declining incomes, falling life expectancies, growing social pessimism and despair), elite overproduction and intra-elite conflict, and failing state (growing state debt and collapsing trust in state institutions). The Covid-19 pandemic put even more pressure on the system, especially exacerbating immiseration.

What is somewhat unusual is that the triggering event for USA in 2020 is also highly predictable. Every four years America elects president. Even under “normal” circumstances a ruler transition stresses the system, but when it happens under conditions of high social fragility, it can deliver a death blow to it. Last time this happened was in 1860. The result was the American Civil War and what many historians call the “Second American Revolution,” because it overturned the previous social order, dominated by slave-owning southern planters in alliance with northern merchants who shipped their products overseas. This ruling class was replaced with the new governing class, the northern manufacturing, mining, railroad, and agro-business elites. The main fault-line then was between the slave-owning South and the free-labor North.

Today the faultline is between what could be called the Red and Blue Americas. Blue Americans hate and fear Trump and everything he stands for. Red Americans hate and fear what Biden stands for. Either side is united primarily not because they particularly like their candidate, but by their dislike of the opposing party. There is a geographic aspect to this confrontation (the coasts versus the heartland) but it is not as clear-cut as it was in 1860. Also, the Red and Blue parties coincide imperfectly with the Republicans and Democrats, because many Obama voters switched to Trump in 2016, while many republican politicians have endorsed Biden. The division is over the issues.

snip

What will happen on November 3? One possibility is that one side wins by a landslide and the other accepts it. This is what the generals fervently hope for. This would avoid a civil war, at least for a time. The problem is that neither side has shown any willingness or understanding to solve the structural problems that have brought about the current revolutionary situation. And it takes years to reverse the negative structural-demographic trends, even once the necessary reforms are implemented. So we simply kick the problem forward to 2024.

Moreover, a clean win by either side, while possible, doesn’t seem to be very likely. Let’s face it, we live in a “post-truth” world. The difference between the Red and Blue parties is stark not only in their visions of where America needs to go; they also completely disagree on what is true or false. Each side believes that the other has been lying and suppressing information. The polls reported by the mainstream media, who has decisively taken the Biden side, suggest that Biden leads Trump by 10 percent or more. The Blue party is convinced that they are winning. But if you read Red party-aligned media and social media, they are equally convinced that they are the ones winning. Come election date and the days after, during the messy process of counting ballots and contesting results state by state by the lawyer teams on each side, it is unclear to me how either party could be convinced that they lost the elections.

What comes next—in November and in the months ahead? In dynamic systems terms, we are on the cusp with a highly positive Lyapunov exponent. What it means in English is that, unless there is a clean win, we will be in situation where possible trajectories start diverging dramatically. All kinds of outcomes become possible, even ones that seem outlandish right now, such as American Civil War II.

Many social scientists, who study civil wars and revolutions, don’t believe that a civil war here is likely. They look at the current wave of violence and don’t see how it could escalate to a civil war—the United States has a strong and well-armed police force that can easily put down any popular insurrection. But this view misses an important point: successful revolutions rarely result from the revolt of the masses. The most important factor is the divisions at the top, with dissident elites mobilizing the masses to advance their political agendas.

Using the past as a guide to the future, I can think of a number of possible trajectories after Nov. 3. These are all very speculative, and some may seem outlandish, but others have also been war-gaming various post-election scenarios.

In one demonstrations against Trump turn violent, he uses the military to suppress them, and then sets himself up as dictator (this is what the Blue party fears). In another Trump is arrested by the FBI and is put on trial. Alternatively, Biden is tried and convicted for corruption.

Other possibilities include a regional rebellion, e.g. the West Coast announces independence and the state governors use National Guard to defined themselves against the Trump administration in Washington. Or the Deep South announces independence against the Biden administration in Washington.

A group of colonels seizes the power and establish a junta (this one seems the least likely as the social norm that the military doesn’t interfere in politics is one of the few that has not yet unraveled).

Since we seemingly live in a dystopian novel, I can also imagine a trajectory in which Trump is assassinated by a lone gunman, who is then killed, and the person who killed the killer of Trump’s assassin commits suicide by shooting themselves four times in the head, and then jumping from the twentieth floor window.

Just about the only way in which street violence could directly escalate to a revolution is if revolutionary crowds break into the White House and depose Trump. But even this trajectory requires collaboration from the top (the police and the army standing aside to allow this to happen).

I am sure you can think of other possible trajectories. The main point is that hitting a cusp creates a fan of possible trajectories, many of which couldn’t even be imagined ahead of time.

One final thought is that the timing of any such possibilities is completely unpredictable. Social breakdown can happen in days, but historical comparisons suggest that usually it takes many months. For example, Lincoln was elected on Nov. 6, 1860, but the first real battle of the Civil War took place in July 1861.

And this concludes my “analysis from Alpha Centauri.”

An outcome to be devoutly wished against.
 
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