ArmyRick
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First clue that Ekos is right out to lunch. PPC with 4%? No F-ing way. Maybe .4%. Take this poll with a huge dose of salt.
Liberal Minority Government 2021 - 2025
- Thread starter Altair
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i think they got 5% last time?
That’s not supported by evidence. PPC consistently poll at an average 2-3% across various firms, sometimes at 4%, occasionally at 1%, and very occasionally at 5%. There’s nothing to suggest their popular support is nearly as low as you say, even though it translates to nothing seats wise.
Canada polls | 338Canada
338canada.com
Today’s aggregate.
Another drop for CPC and LPC continues its climb.
338canada.com
Of note, the CPC is almost about to enter minority territory. Also a significant drop in percentage of chance to get a majority of seats. Now sitting at 87% as opposed to 99%. Also, at 54% of getting a majority gvt
Whatever reset PP was hoping for hasn’t materialized but he is still in winning territory for now.
Another drop for CPC and LPC continues its climb.
338Canada Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections
338canada.com
Of note, the CPC is almost about to enter minority territory. Also a significant drop in percentage of chance to get a majority of seats. Now sitting at 87% as opposed to 99%. Also, at 54% of getting a majority gvt
Whatever reset PP was hoping for hasn’t materialized but he is still in winning territory for now.
A look at 338’s projections versus contemporaneous polling shows that their projections, quite reasonably, reflect a training aggregation of the last few weeks’ worth of polls. That’s cautious and produent, but it also means that very fast and significant swings - if they aren’t outliers - will lag in the projections. I think the 338 projections will see LPC and CPC co to he to converge for maybe another week yet, assuming the actual polling numbers stabilize at their current level of support.Today’s aggregate.
Another drop for CPC and LPC continues its climb.
338Canada Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections
Of note, the CPC is almost about to enter minority territory. Also a significant drop in percentage of chance to get a majority of seats. Now sitting at 87% as opposed to 99%. Also, at 54% of getting a majority gvt
Whatever reset PP was hoping for hasn’t materialized but he is still in winning territory for now.
In early March we’ll have a new liberal leader and PM. Days later, Trump’s promised auto, aluminum, and steel tariffs are to take effect. That may be contemporaneous with a writ drop.
The pollsters and projectionists are going to face a challenge in trying to keep up.
ArmyRick
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Yup. Its the wild west in Canadian Politics right now. Each week, something unforeseen pops up, sometimes daily.
GK .Dundas
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No, sorry.
I doubt very much you could screw things up that badly deliberately .
It didn't occur overnight and took several governmentsfor it to end up this way.
Translation: real life .
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Increased carbon tax 1st of April.
Quirky
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People will still vote liberal, they love living off social assistance from the gov and blame the ‘rich CEO’s’ for raising prices. Let it burn.
Halifax Tar
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Granted these are just pills and things campaigns and election results matter.
BUT
That's one hell of a slide.
Its a reflection of loss of support for all the party's except the ruling Party that is dominating the news cycle after the Trump . The NDP has "lost" 36% support, the Tories 21%, The Bloc about 15%. It's a "we don't want change " reaction that Carney is getting a series of mulligans for in the perception that his Bankerness will calm things. Its also a swing of Blue Liberals that perhaps the center can be reclaimed. But change is a comin.
MilEME09
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Question is how big of a change and which way
ArmyRick
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Settle down on your wishes, you may be sorely disappointed if he still becomes Prime Minister.
Same polls showing 3% PPC? Yeah right, highly doubt it.
If Pierre does NOT win a majority (yes a majority) government next election, then I will concede he has choked.
MilEME09
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They have lost a 20 point lead, that's a choke, 3% National ppc support is consistent but is so spread out it doesn't translate to seats.
ArmyRick
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Yeah, I know how polls work.
Now compare individual polls and the results change significantly
If Pierre wins a majority, your gonna look like a total fool here and now
We went over this literally a few days ago when you tried to say the polls were off actual PPC support by an order of magnitude. I showed you the receipts for PPC consistently hitting 2-3%, with some outliers to either side of that.
That’s not supported by evidence. PPC consistently poll at an average 2-3% across various firms, sometimes at 4%, occasionally at 1%, and very occasionally at 5%. There’s nothing to suggest their popular support is nearly as low as you say, even though it translates to nothing seats wise.
Canada polls | 338Canada
Interestingly, these sorts of polls - were they to be reflected in an election - actually do put CPC in a position where the PPC eat enough of their support to cost seats that matter. This kind of very thin margin is basically the only context where PPC are electorally relevant.
The polls don’t really matter to my mind, not in any predictive way, they’re just illustrative of trends in support. But the trends are interesting as hell in the larger context.
MilEME09
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ArmyRick
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Better idea. Just give me the word, I will post a few quick and easy links to show you the "polls" in the 2006, 2011 and 2015 federal elections (2 of these were change elections and the other saw the LPC reduced to 3rd party status) were they were very inaccurate (except the last minute swings seen in the final few weeks of these elections). The 2019 and 2021 polls were closer to what happened.
Go nuts. Meanwhile in the here and now, we’ll see what actually happens when we see what actually happens.
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