Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Halifax Tar]

Agreed. And that was also his undoing. He did an excellent job with both and framing them a certain way.

PP’s timing was good in that he knew the gvt was at its best before date after 10 years.

Freeland was merely the catalyst. There was already resentment in caucus. That just tipped it over.

The carbon tax was unpopular.

Carney took a pragmatic approach and just took the wind out of PPs sails by dropping it.

With Trudeau gone (due to circumstance and event) and the tax (a deliberate decision by Carney) PP didn’t have much else.

I don't disagree with you at all. He really struggled after JT and the CT left the picture.

I also think he should do the honorable thing and step back. The party is strong, stronger than after the last election. Let someone else be the closer. Rona Ambrose please come back!

 

[IKnowNothing]

I also think he should do the honorable thing and step back. The party is strong, stronger than after the last election. Let someone else be the closer. Rona Ambrose please come back!

I've made no effort to hide my disdain for for the direction Poilievre and Byrne took the party, and am now vindicated in pointing out the potential shortfalls. I would love a CPC lead by Ambrose, that being said: I think it's in the best interests of the CPC to rally behind Pierre Poilievre IF (IF IF IF) he commits to the growth needed to close the gap and make the next step.

Reason 1- despite the embarrassing choke job, the gains in popular vote, seat count, fundraising, etc etc etc are all very real, and all very impressive. He did in fact grow the party and it's standing. If I liked him as a leader- I would be voting and lobbying for him to get a second chance to apply some lessons learned and grow from the loss- that principle should hold.

Reason 2- if he wants to stay on- A. I don't think there's the horses to unseat him in the Party, and B- if there is, the fight to depose him will be a nasty, hard fought affair that will fracture the party and force him to lean in on the very behaviours and messages that cost him the election. That's not good for the country.


The IF is in his court. He needs to grow up, ditch Byrne, and find a way to thread the needle that keeps his base while both un-alienating the moderates he chased away and unmotivating / un-uniting the left against him. No more school yard names, no more manufactured character assassination- craft a vision for the nation, based on the detailed merits it holds. Edited add: Spend less of his warchest trying to define a reality that is favourable to him, and more of communicating how he will shape a reality that is beneficial to Canadians.

Opinion: The good and unnecessarily bad of Pierre Poilievre

The Conservative Leader keeps picking fights that don’t need to be fought, and that came through in Monday’s election result

web.archive.org

Opinion: If Poilievre is genuinely humbled, the Conservatives should keep him around

The Conservative Leader doesn’t need to become Liberal-lite. He just needs to cut the crap

web.archive.org

 

[Jarnhamar]

I don’t think the CPC need an ‘all-star celebrity’ to challenge Carney. I think they need someone very accomplished, competent, and credible in some key part of governing a country, running an economy, or engaging in diplomacy. Someone with a really solid CV. That can absolutely come from within Parliament, but will probably require a candidate to have done some meaningful work outside of Parliament too. Poilievre falls painfully short there.

I'm not sure the CPC need celebrity. But I think PP needs to step back and let someone else run with the ball.

When Trudeau was voted in there was a lot of fanfare over it. Trudeaumania. Here's a guy who thought it was wonderful to brag to other world leaders about his socks because his base made him feel like an icon.

I think voters only turned away from Trudeau when it collectively became embarrassing to support him and his brand. Not because of any economical metrics.

Carney is promising even bigger spending and much bolder projects with no experience in the political realm, and Canadians are buying into it.

He's not going to lose votes because of scandals, quality of life dropping, or house hold debt increasing. He's only going to lose votes when associating with his brand becomes embarrassing. To compete with that the Conservatives will need to run someone who Liberal minded voters will want to brag about supporting as a celebrity-style Candidiate. Not someone who's got a good CV.

 

[brihard]

When Trudeau was voted in there was a lot of fanfare over it. Trudeaumania. Here's a guy who thought it was wonderful to brag to other world leaders about his socks because his base made him feel like an icon.

I think voters only turned away from Trudeau when it collectively became embarrassing to support him and his brand. Not because of any economical metrics.

Carney is promising even bigger spending and much bolder projects with no experience in the political realm, and Canadians are buying into it.

He's not going to lose votes because of scandals, quality of life dropping, or house hold debt increasing. He's only going to lose votes when associating with his brand becomes embarrassing. To compete with that the Conservatives will need to run someone who Liberal minded voters will want to brag about supporting as a celebrity-style Candidiate. Not someone who's got a good CV.

Might be that after a decade of Trudeau and in light of world events, Liberals, or those who may at times vote that way, may not look at this the same way they did back then?

 

[IKnowNothing]

I think voters only turned away from Trudeau when it collectively became embarrassing to support him and his brand. Not because of any economical metrics.



He's not going to lose votes because of scandals, quality of life dropping, or house hold debt increasing. He's only going to lose votes when associating with his brand becomes embarrassing. To compete with that the Conservatives will need to run someone who Liberal minded voters will want to brag about supporting as a celebrity-style Candidiate. Not someone who's got a good CV.

I think you're misreading it- Trudeau and his brand became toxic because of the legitimate scandals (not the flyshit from pepper ones), because of QoL dropping, because of housing prices. He (rightfully) wore and became the face of the difficulty of the times.

Carney's CV gives him a reprieve from that negative sentiment, based on the promise that a competent financial mind can make things better. If he doesn't- he will wear the difficulty of the times as well. If he doesn't, the CPC need to be running an alternative that isn't so viscerally unlikeable as to create an unprecedented strategic vote against him/her. Maybe that will be a version of Poilievre that comes out of this loss a better prospective leader.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I think you're misreading it- Trudeau and his brand became toxic because of the legitimate scandals (not the flyshit from pepper ones), because of QoL dropping, because of housing prices. He (rightfully) wore and became the face of the difficulty of the times.

Carney's CV gives him a reprieve from that negative sentiment, based on the promise that a competent financial mind can make things better. If he doesn't- he will wear the difficulty of the times as well. If he doesn't, the CPC need to be running an alternative that isn't so viscerally unlikeable as to create an unprecedented strategic vote against him/her. Maybe that will be a version of Poilievre that comes out of this loss a better prospective leader.

I think people are expecting big things and life cheapening policies from MC. Others expectations can be a a son-of-a-bitch.

 

[ModlrMike]

Carney's CV gives him a reprieve from that negative sentiment, based on the promise that a competent financial mind can make things better. If he doesn't- he will wear the difficulty of the times as well. If he doesn't, the CPC need to be running an alternative that isn't so viscerally unlikeable as to create an unprecedented strategic vote against him/her. Maybe that will be a version of Poilievre that comes out of this loss a better prospective leader.

I would suggest that his CV gives him the opportunity to govern from a more blue perspective than red. The primary risk for him is going too green in his policies so that in the end, the resource development we so desperately need stagnates under increased regulation.

 

[McG]

Carney is promising even bigger spending and much bolder projects with no experience in the political realm ...

Political experience is about winning elections, preformative antics in the House of Commons, making everything a wedge in the forever campaign, ...

Maybe one of Canada's problems has been too many recent political leaders with more experience in the political realm than in the world of running programs and projects.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Might be that after a decade of Trudeau and in light of world events, Liberals, or those who may at times vote that way, may not look at this the same way they did back then?

Could be.

Looks to me like Canadians just voted the same party in for the 4th time, just with a still wet 'Under new management' sign.

The current sorry state of Canada isn't solely on Trudeaus shoulders; his MPs supported him time and time again. And they're still in office.

I think you're misreading it- Trudeau and his brand became toxic because of the legitimate scandals (not the flyshit from pepper ones), because of QoL dropping, because of housing prices. He (rightfully) wore and became the face of the difficulty of the times.

I don't see that at all. Liberals supported him through hell and high water. Scandals didn't affect his polling one bit. There was a lot of "yeah but conservatives" everything about story hit the news.

Carney's CV gives him a reprieve from that negative sentiment, based on the promise that a competent financial mind can make things better.

Experience and education doesn't guarantee benevolent behavior. Its just as possible he uses his copious experience helping Brookfield navigate legal loopholes against Canadians interests, or to set himself up after being PM.

I suspect we're going to see Brookfield front and center in a lot of Canada's restructuring.
Conservatives will say see we told you so.
Liberals Will say yeah but Brookfield is a big company.

If he doesn't, the CPC need to be running an alternative that isn't so viscerally unlikeable

Children's cough medicine comes in fun flavors for a reason.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I think people are expecting big things and life cheapening policies from MC. Others expectations can be a a son-of-a-bitch.

To me his shortterm popularity and staying power will hinge on two things - housing and stability. Stability in the form of navigating the US spat and DJT with the least amount of harm to Canada. Housing as the single biggest item driving QoL/CoL issues in the country. If he can get quick (in the relative sense) wins there, he's going to get the time go into the more complex and lengthy beast of implementing his vision for the economy.

 

[Remius]

Could be.

Looks to me like Canadians just voted the same party in for the 4th time, just with a still wet 'Under new management' sign.

Same party? Yes. Different leader. And if anything these past months and years have been about the leader. This past election was about what leader was perceived as best to navigate the current climate.

The current sorry state of Canada isn't solely on Trudeaus shoulders; his MPs supported him time and time again. And they're still in office.

That message only started a few weeks ago. Until then it was Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau and the buck stops with him.

I don't see that at all. Liberals supported him through hell and high water. Scandals didn't affect his polling one bit. There was a lot of "yeah but conservatives" everything about story hit the news.

Except Canadians were tired of Trudeau so much so that they were facing oblivion. And what the opposition tried to make into scandals wasn’t very relatable to the average Canadian. Some sure but not all. Plus when you blame the guy for everything all the time it turns into white noise.

Experience and education doesn't guarantee benevolent behavior. Its just as possible he uses his copious experience helping Brookfield navigate legal loopholes against Canadians interests, or to set himself up after being PM.

That’s the message Jenni Byrne was trying to get out and to try and assassinante his character.

I suspect we're going to see Brookfield front and center in a lot of Canada's restructuring.
Conservatives will say see we told you so.
Liberals Will say yeah but Brookfield is a big company.

I always find it sad when we lament Canadian success stories like Brookfield.

Children's cough medicine comes in fun flavors for a reason.

And most of it is snake oil anyways.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I would suggest that his CV gives him the opportunity to govern from a more blue perspective than red. The primary risk for him is going too green in his policies so that in the end, the resource development we so desperately need stagnates under increased regulation.

IF Carney can get a pipeline or two approved, shovels in the ground, get an expanded CAF with proper funding along with new CAF facilities/housing/pay raise, get inter-provincial trade barriers to fall away and lastly, a big one, get new housing being built on track - it will be tough to get him out before the next mandate is due.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Same party? Yes. Different leader. And if anything these past months and years have been about the leader. This past election was about what leader was perceived as best to navigate the current climate.

That message only started a few weeks ago. Until then it was Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau and the buck stops with him.

Except Canadians were tired of Trudeau so much so that they were facing oblivion. And what the opposition tried to make into scandals wasn’t very relatable to the average Canadian. Some sure but not all. Plus when you blame the guy for everything all the time it turns into white noise.

That’s the message Jenni Byrne was trying to get out and to try and assassinante his character.

I always find it sad when we lament Canadian success stories like Brookfield.

And most of it is snake oil anyways.

spot on about Brookfield - Tall Poppy Syndrome here in Canada - its about finishing in 4th place, never on the podium here in Canada. Bush league stuff and the a main reason why we have taken the easy route over the last 70yrs in terms of selling to the US instead of developing extensively trading relations with other parts of the world.

 

[IKnowNothing]

That’s the message Jenni Byrne was trying to get out and to try and assassinante his character.

Which is incredibly ironic- especially given Poilievre's comments about holding lobbyists in such disdain.

Not a website I frequent, but came up when I was searching to find any post election commentary about her future in the party.

Pierre Poilievre’s Top Advisor, Jenni Byrne, is a Major Corporate Power Broker

A closer look at Byrne’s extensive corporate lobbying activity reveals billion-dollar corporations and ethical concerns

pressprogress.ca

 

[brihard]

Could be.

Looks to me like Canadians just voted the same party in for the 4th time, just with a still wet 'Under new management' sign.

The current sorry state of Canada isn't solely on Trudeaus shoulders; his MPs supported him time and time again. And they're still in office.


I don't see that at all. Liberals supported him through hell and high water. Scandals didn't affect his polling one bit. There was a lot of "yeah but conservatives" everything about story hit the news.


Experience and education doesn't guarantee benevolent behavior. Its just as possible he uses his copious experience helping Brookfield navigate legal loopholes against Canadians interests, or to set himself up after being PM.

I suspect we're going to see Brookfield front and center in a lot of Canada's restructuring.
Conservatives will say see we told you so.
Liberals Will say yeah but Brookfield is a big company.

Children's cough medicine comes in fun flavors for a reason.

Poilievre put a lot of work into making the LPC and their government all about Trudeau. It was central to his messaging. There has been much lamenting too in recent years of how much power has amassed in the PMO, and how Trudeau threw cabinet members under the bus. That messaging may have been too succesful for the CPC’s own good. It’s tough for them to spend a lot of time and effort making it all about Trudeau and then suddenly try to pivot to actually it wasn’t. In any case, Carney’s now at bat and we’ll see if he’s any good.

We want him to do well, right?

 

[Halifax Tar]

We want him to do well, right?

I would say yes, but my version of good may not be the same as yours.

 

[brihard]

I would say yes, but my version of good may not be the same as yours.

I’m sure it’s not identical, but I bet practically all of us here would have about 80% overlap for what ‘PM doing well’ looks like.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Same party? Yes. Different leader. And if anything these past months and years have been about the leader.

Not in my book. MPs supported Trudeau lockstep through everything with their nothing to see here mantra every time he, or one of them, got caught.
MP votes are needed in Parliament to pass bills, which Trudeau got.

Except Canadians were tired of Trudeau so much so that they were facing oblivion. And what the opposition tried to make into scandals wasn’t very relatable to the average Canadian. Some sure but not all. Plus when you blame the guy for everything all the time it turns into white noise.

You hit the nail on the head here. Canadians generally didn't care about the scandals because they weren't impacted and it wasn't related to them.
$45678909876.00 gets wasted on who knows what? Who cares, what even is that number? I'm sure someone benefitted so that must be good.

I always find it sad when we lament Canadian success stories like Brookfield.

Or GC Strategies. I suppose it was nice Canadian company Brookfield was able to help a Canadian citizen buy Twitter.

But that's not the point. I'm guessing you don't see any conflict of interest behind the Carney government awarding Brookfield contracts as long as Carney isn't signing the dotted line approving it?

 

[Jarnhamar]

Poilievre put a lot of work into making the LPC and their government all about Trudeau. It was central to his messaging. There has been much lamenting too in recent years of how much power has amassed in the PMO, and how Trudeau threw cabinet members under the bus. That messaging may have been too succesful for the CPC’s own good. It’s tough for them to spend a lot of time and effort making it all about Trudeau and then suddenly try to pivot to actually it wasn’t. In any case, Carney’s now at bat and we’ll see if he’s any good.

We want him to do well, right?

Yeah you're right. Dumb move by Poilievre. Now all those "but I didn't know any better<smile>" MP's get another 4 years employment.

 

[QV]

I’m sure it’s not identical, but I bet practically all of us here would have about 80% overlap for what ‘PM doing well’ looks like.

The problem for many is Carney's past support and position on all the things Trudeau was doing. Only the message during the election campaign was different. All the players are the same now as then.

We'll see if Carney does what he has now said, vs what history suggests me may do.

If Carney pivots from his past stance - I'm stuck between two thoughts:

- Carney recognized his party's policy (that he was behind) were bad and he is changing and now doing good! A big improvement!
vs
- Carney's instincts were terrible, remain terrible, and he pivoted to get and retain power and we'll see a creep back to bad policy. His inner circle suggests this to be accurate.

Only time will tell. I didn't want to take the chance, but enough voters apparently did.