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All Things AB Separatism (split fm Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???)

Doesn't Alberta have 1/3 our land forces, and all of our tanks?
Does a province have any right to those things?

Alberta isn’t supporting 1/3rd of the defence budget.

And I am sure that the forces there that are not from Alberta and would not be willing to stay either in the event of a split.

Besides, if we are renewing our defence spending, I’d let them keep the junk and hesitate at investing any new defence industry in Alberta if there is any threat of seperation. Stability and all that…
 
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A thumbs up for a referendum (even if he says he doesn't think 50%'ll endorse the idea) from the Reform-y end of the Team Blue spectrum.

I don't know if I would trust Stockwell Doris Day to respect a petition.

 
Does a province have any right to those things?
Yes and no.

No one is arresting Putin because of the firepower he can bring to the table. Same reason why we didn't arrest First Nations at Oka.

At a certain point the typical approach to policing doesn't work.

Alberta isn’t supporting 1/3rd of the defence budget.
No but they have put in billions of dollars in equalization payments.

And I am sure that the forces there that are not from Alberta and would not be willing to stay either in the event of a split.
Maybe. I see CAF members complaining non-stop that they're underpaid. If Alberta doubles their salary that might motivate them to stay. Especially when Carney is saying "there needs to be sacrifices".

Besides, if we are renewing our defence spending, I’d let them keep the junk and hesitate at investing any new defence industry in Alberta if there is any threat of seperation. Stability and all that…
Would you withhold medical services from groups that are more prone to HIV or crime?
 
Yes and no.

No one is arresting Putin because of the firepower he can bring to the table. Same reason why we didn't arrest First Nations at Oka.

At a certain point the typical approach to policing doesn't work.
Not sure what you mean here…. The question is if Alberta gets CAF assets or not and if that is something they are entitled to to begin with.
No but they have put in billions of dollars in equalization payments.
Not at all the same thing. The question is if Alberta has a right to any CAF assets, and if so what and how much?

At most I see infrastructure and whatever junk we want to divest ourselves of. Keep the bases, armouries but I would most assets of value or use moved out. The infrastructure alone would be more than worth whatever they think they are entitled to.
Maybe. I see CAF members complaining non-stop that they're underpaid. If Alberta doubles their salary that might motivate them to stay. Especially when Carney is saying "there needs to be sacrifices".
Why would Alberta do that. What benefit would a land locked petro state in NA need with a military that is paid twice as much as the most well paid force in the world? They would have way more priorities than paying for a shiny tool they’ll never use. At most I see a militia style army or national guard with a national police force. Fantastical proposition to think that would even be on offer given the many other things they’ll have to cough up money for in their new republic.
Would you withhold medical services from groups that are more prone to HIV or crime?
Huh? Not even comparable. I would not invest anything in Alberta until the question is settled. And if it still looms in any serious way (which I don’t) I would make sure to keep any strategic investment like a defence industry as far away from them as possible until the issue goes away. To your question though I certainly wouldn’t give anything to anyone that intends to abscond with it. I wouldn’t lend money to a drug addicted family member until they get clean . And I wouldn’t buy them new furniture for their room if they planned on moving out.
 
Not sure what you mean here…. The question is if Alberta gets CAF assets or not and if that is something they are entitled to to begin with.
Entitled to? Probably not. But they would just keep them and no one would do anything about it.

Not at all the same thing. The question is if Alberta has a right to any CAF assets, and if so what and how much?
Alberta forms a sovereign government and says these assets are ours now. Same.way our government decided a bunch of Canadian citizens assets are theirs now.

At most I see infrastructure and whatever junk we want to divest ourselves of. Keep the bases, armouries but I would most assets of value or use moved out. The infrastructure alone would be more than worth whatever they think they are entitled to.
They'll keep what they want. Who is going to stop them?

Why would Alberta do that. What benefit would a land locked petro state in NA need with a military that is paid twice as much as the most well paid force in the world?
Because they can. It's posturing. Look we have our own military. Smith can send a LAV battalion to Latvia to help against Russia.
I bet soldiers would jump at the chance to become dual citizens and make oil worker money doing a job they're already doing for much less.

I would make sure to keep any strategic investment like a defence industry as far away from them as possible until the issue goes away.
That would just be spin as typical central and eastern Canada spitting in Albertans face.
 
Entitled to? Probably not. But they would just keep them and no one would do anything about it.


Alberta forms a sovereign government and says these assets are ours now. Same.way our government decided a bunch of Canadian citizens assets are theirs now.


They'll keep what they want. Who is going to stop them?


Because they can. It's posturing. Look we have our own military. Smith can send a LAV battalion to Latvia to help against Russia.
I bet soldiers would jump at the chance to become dual citizens and make oil worker money doing a job they're already doing for much less.


That would just be spin as typical central and eastern Canada spitting in Albertans face.

CAF would simply move all the vehicles, aircraft and other movable assets out immediately when the need became apparent. This was what they were planning to do during the Quebec referenda- strip the bases. My dad was a young transport officer in Valcartier during the first one and was part of the contingency planning on that. There would be no way for Alberta to stop CAF from removing any removable assets. The empty bases would be fodder for negotiations on assets and liabilities. If Alberta wanted to negotiate purchasing CAF assets from Canada to create their own military I’m sure those discussion could take place.
 
CAF would simply move all the vehicles, aircraft and other movable assets out immediately when the need became apparent. This was what they were planning to do during the Quebec referenda- strip the bases. My dad was a young transport officer in Valcartier during the first one and was part of the contingency planning on that. There would be no way for Alberta to stop CAF from removing any removable assets. The empty bases would be fodder for negotiations on assets and liabilities. If Alberta wanted to negotiate purchasing CAF assets from Canada to create their own military I’m sure those discussion could take place.

Following independence, I can imagine the internal Alberta-stan discussions playing out something like this ;)

GIF by South Park
 
Entitled to? Probably not. But they would just keep them and no one would do anything about it.
Ah so not going to negotiate?
Alberta forms a sovereign government and says these assets are ours now. Same.way our government decided a bunch of Canadian citizens assets are theirs now.
Again, skipping the négociation part. Good luck getting any international recognition.
They'll keep what they want. Who is going to stop them?
Right. I’m sure they will…

So just to be clear that’s what you think will happen?
Because they can. It's posturing. Look we have our own military. Smith can send a LAV battalion to Latvia to help against Russia.
I bet soldiers would jump at the chance to become dual citizens and make oil worker money doing a job they're already doing for much less.
Sure she will…
That would just be spin as typical central and eastern Canada spitting in Albertans face.
Nope. It’s the Canadian spin. Pragmatic.

No spitting. Just sort the tantrum out one way or another. Then we can talk strategic investment. It’s why business leaves or avoids in the face of uncertainty. It’s the same for any separatist movement.

Your answers about just taking stuff proves my point.
 
CAF would simply move all the vehicles, aircraft and other movable assets out immediately when the need became apparent.
That's true we could just try and move everything out, or at least anything we deemed of value. It would be entertaining to sit back and watch how that plan unfolds.

I suspect an eager US would be quick to replace the lost kit.
 
I think this is a moot subject. I do not think Alberta is going anywhere.
I don't think so either. I don't think it'll be remotely close when all shakes out. At this point I DO hope they actually hold a referendum promptly just to get things settled for the near and mid term, so people and business know what to expect. Establish conclusively that the separatist fringe is just that, and then let the business of governing the province and the country carry on with that established.

That's true we could just try and move everything out, or at least anything we deemed of value. It would be entertaining to sit back and watch how that plan unfolds.

I suspect an eager US would be quick to replace the lost kit.
It would be messy but straightforward. Just get everything from Edmonton to Shilo initially on a 'for now' basis. CFB Cold Lake assets could go wherever makes sense.

It's not like moving kit out in the face of a sovereignty vote would be an overnight emergency. Likely it would be a quick and heavy effort, but it wouldn't be Dunkirk.
 
Ah so not going to negotiate?
I doubt it.
Again, skipping the négociation part. Good luck getting any international recognition.
Money talks. I think you're over estimating how put off the international community would be.

Right. I’m sure they will…

So just to be clear that’s what you think will happen?
If they separated? Yeah. I don't think they will.

Your answers about just taking stuff proves my point.
What point is that?
 
It's not like moving kit out in the face of a sovereignty vote would be an overnight emergency. Likely it would be a quick and heavy effort, but it wouldn't be Dunkirk.
I'd imagine it would be cheaper to leave most of the stuff. IT goons in Petawawa just charged almost $1000 to physically move a printer 150 meters between buildings and that didn't include hooking it up.
 
I doubt it.

Money talks. I think you're over estimating how put off the international community would be.
No. Diplomacy has certainly rules that that are followed. Unilateral non negotiated departures aren’t viewed well. I’m sure Russia will support thought. Peaceful negociated exits generally work out though.
If they separated? Yeah. I don't think they will.
Yes. If you think they will just take stuff like you said.
What point is that?
The point that if the thought you propose is that they will just take what they want and we wouldn’t do anything about it then Canada would be absolutely correct in not adding any additional investment until the matter is settled.

How about this scenario.

Alberta pulls the trigger on a referendum a year from now. Great.

Meanwhile, the US is skittish about letting Canada put any F35s and related infrastructure in Alberta. But we reassure them that it’s cool. They then go ahead and start. F35s get delivered and all is gtg. Referendum vote happens and oops. Yes side wins.

Some separatist elements, say the base commander and some sympathizing CAF members who have been promised twice the pay and an oil patch job. Let’s call them fire team Q. They decide to just secure that stuff. As you said just take it. Now the gvt could direct JTF2 and CSOR to secure it but, as you said, you they wouldn’t do anything about it.

Then how long do you think it would take for say US Delta Force Rangers or whoever to drop in, disappear fire team Q, secure the assets and haul them off south? A week? No way the US will let a newly separatist state without négociation go rogue on military assets it still exerts some degree of control over. Especially one north of them.

Fun fiction.
 
Then how long do you think it would take for say US Delta Force Rangers or whoever to drop in, disappear fire team Q, secure the assets and haul them off south? A week? No way the US will let a newly separatist state without négociation go rogue on military assets it still exerts some degree of control over. Especially one north of them.

Fun fiction
The right honorable Smith, whom everyone ridiculed for meeting Trump, calls him and offers him some oil, energy, and steaks for protection.

The US parks some F22s and Armor in The New Republic of Alberta as a friendship visit.
 
A thumbs up for a referendum (even if he says he doesn't think 50%'ll endorse the idea) from the Reform-y end of the Team Blue spectrum.

Stock works for Beijing now, so that tracks he would be in favour of destabilizing the country. And I say that as a former Stock-a-holic…

As for an independent Alberta getting a bigger military, paid twice as much, that sounds like pure fantasy. If they’re lucky, they might be able to afford an NZDF minus RNZN. It costs a lot of money to pay for the trappings of nationhood, especially when there is an exodus of business and people. Business is already getting jittery from talk of a referendum.
 
The right honorable Smith, whom everyone ridiculed for meeting Trump, calls him and offers him some oil, energy, and steaks for protection.

The US parks some F22s and Armor in The New Republic of Alberta as a friendship visit.
Support for joining the US among Albertans is considerably lower than support for separation. Not sure many of them are looking to be a blatant resource vassal state.
 
Support for joining the US among Albertans is considerably lower than support for separation. Not sure many of them are looking to be a blatant resource vassal state.
Good point. I assumed the Albertans wanting to separate were just the ones who wanted to join the US.
 
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