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CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

Not as filthy as when we called it rapeseed…
Functionally a different plant now bred by the University of Manitoba. Canola stands for CANada Oil Low Acid. The acid being eruric which made rapeseed of limited use cooking wise. It is perfectly safe to eat in moderation. If even the Europeans accept it when it meets its ureric acid limits (which commerically available stuff does), its fine.


Inb4 the appeal to knowledge, 8th generation prairie grain farmer. Haven't been hurt by canola yet haha. Just dont eat it like olive oil, very neutral taste.
 
perfectly safe to eat in moderation
Its my personal opinion (that many MDs share) zero is the safe amount of canola to consume.

I wouldn't be quick to quote things from heartandstroke. Its a deep rabbit hole but there are many cardiologist fed up with recommendations by H and S.

Its a topic better to split off. Myself, being a 90-95% carnivore and I frequently fast 24-48 hours, I have very "unconventional" views and not the least bit interested in sharing them here.
 
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Functionally a different plant now bred by the University of Manitoba. Canola stands for CANada Oil Low Acid. The acid being eruric which made rapeseed of limited use cooking wise. It is perfectly safe to eat in moderation. If even the Europeans accept it when it meets its ureric acid limits (which commerically available stuff does), its fine.


Inb4 the appeal to knowledge, 8th generation prairie grain farmer. Haven't been hurt by canola yet haha. Just dont eat it like olive oil, very neutral taste.

So Canamonsanto GMO-approved? 😉
 
Would be nice to get more European cheeses here at a more decent price.

We have lots of other agricultural sectors that are not supply managed and do well. Beef, for example was never supply managed.

Also, it’s weird that we allow less than 9000 extremely wealthy farms to hold the rest of our economy hostage. If we have one big stumbling block to increasing trade with the rest of the world, it’s this.

This is one thing I agreed with Mad Max about.
We get far more high quality European cheeses, at least in Quebec, than they do down in the US.
 
Would they disappear or be absorbed into larger corporate dairy farms?
They would mostly disappear. Our much smaller dairy sector would be flooded out of business. The state of Wisconsin alone has more dairy cattle than all of Canada. And California has 3-4 times the number of dairy cattle than Wisconsin. Plus the American government subsidizes the US dairy industry to the tune of billions per year.
 
Trump's latest whim of having Coke switch over to cane sugar in place of HF corn syrup will be another nail in the coffin of the American grain farmer. First the gutting of USAID, then the Potash tariff, then the rounding up of their Indentured Servants and now the cutting of HF corn syrup from Coke (if it happens).

An awful lot of American farmers are going to be going under because of this. Talk about corporate farming takeovers, this is it.
Going back to using sugar in Coke versus hf cornsyrup is a good thing.
 
Not sure how much the cutting head on a combine costs, but farmers would need to buy a cutter head for other crops if they only had a corn head…
I have a buddy who farms 5,000 acres in Indiana….corn and soyabeans. Corn goes to the poultry feed businesses and soya goes wherever. He has all his own equipment and does his own harvesting…..plenty of farmers in the US just like him.
 
Not sure how much the cutting head on a combine costs, but farmers would need to buy a cutter head for other crops if they only had a corn head…
I asked my buddy in Indiana…a brand new cutting head costs US$100K+ but a good used one is about $45K. He has one each for soyabean and corn….he can switch them out in 2-3 minutes.
 
PM Harper comes out and says we should diversify trade away from the US. Admits it’s exact opposite advice he would have given a year ago. Carney PMO apparently sought his advice.

 
The U.S. Federal Court of Appeals is currently hearing the U.S. Government appeal of the earlier U.S. Court of International Trafe ruling striking down Trump’s unilaterally imposed ‘emergency’ tariffs, including the ones on Canada that are slated to increase to 35%. That decision was administratively stayed pending appeal, and that’s the appeal being heard right now. If the government doesn’t win this appeal, good chance the lower court decision striking down the tariffs goes into effect and the tariffs disappear, unless therems another stay pending SCOTUS appeal- and it’s not a given that SCOTUS would hear it.

This is fundamentally a question of whether the president has the tariff authority he claims, or whether the constitutional reservation of taxation powers to Congress is what matters here.

A decision is not expected today but hopefully it’s not long. A loss by the government will pull the rug out from under a lot of Trump’s current trade policy- another reason Canada shouldn’t have yeh to sign a bad trade deal if Trump’s tariffs prove illegal.

 
The U.S. Federal Court of Appeals is currently hearing the U.S. Government appeal of the earlier U.S. Court of International Trafe ruling striking down Trump’s unilaterally imposed ‘emergency’ tariffs, including the ones on Canada that are slated to increase to 35%. That decision was administratively stayed pending appeal, and that’s the appeal being heard right now. If the government doesn’t win this appeal, good chance the lower court decision striking down the tariffs goes into effect and the tariffs disappear, unless therems another stay pending SCOTUS appeal- and it’s not a given that SCOTUS would hear it.

This is fundamentally a question of whether the president has the tariff authority he claims, or whether the constitutional reservation of taxation powers to Congress is what matters here.

A decision is not expected today but hopefully it’s not long. A loss by the government will pull the rug out from under a lot of Trump’s current trade policy- another reason Canada shouldn’t have yeh to sign a bad trade deal if Trump’s tariffs prove illegal.

A loss on this by the WH would result in this going to the Supreme Court and them most likely ruling before the end of September
 
This presumes that the administration will actually abide by the decision. Current evidence suggests the opposite.

What evidence do you have this administration doesn't abide by court decisions? Taking lower court decisions to the next level of appeal is a legal mechanism.
 
Canada is stuck with 35pc. The EU is on 15pc. Switzerland is on 39pc while India is on 25pc, with the rest of the world somewhere between those levels.


The basic rate of 15 per cent that will now be charged on most European goods entering the US was perhaps not coincidentally the same rate that Trump had extracted from Japan in a similar deal last week. It is the same rate that could, pending an announced review, become a new general norm in US foreign trade relations. It is also substantially higher than the less than 2 per cent effective rate that the US charged the EU before Trump returned to office.

I just did a fast check of exchange rate histories.

The market has regularly revalued currencies by more that 15% within the last 10 years. On Aug 10 2024 the Japanese Yen was trading at .0062 of a USD. That is its 5 year low. Currently it is trading at .0068. Its 5 year high is December 26 2020 when it traded at .0097. On that date the American consumers were paying 52% more for Japanese goods than they were on Aug 10 of last year, and 42% more than they are now. Adding 15% to the current .0068 level only brings the cost of Japanese imports to the US up to .0078 or the level last seen due solely to market exchange rates in August 2023. It was consistently above that for years prior.

The Euro is currently trading at 1.16 to the USD. The 5 year low is .97 and the high is 1.21. The hi-lo difference is 25%. The tariff is 15%.

The CAD is currently trading at .73 USD to the CAD. The 5 year low is 0.56 (Dec 21, 2024) and the high is .83. Difference is 43%.
If I go back a little farther to the Harper era, coming out of the Chretien-Martin era when the rate was as low as .63, the rate was allowed to rise to 1.07. That swing was 70%.
Our tariff is assessed at 35%.

I don't deny that these tariffs hurt. I do deny that they are economy killers. The market itself provides, and manages, much greater volatility.

The difference is that Donald has taken some of that volatility into his own hands and normalized its use in pursuit of government objectives. He has added.

And the markets are reacting accordingly. Which is to say they are not over-reacting. Unlike some politicians.

Politicians require stability a lot more than markets do. Markets are quite happy with a bit of chaos. That used to be the difference between London and Paris - the Stock Exchange versus the dirigistes.

Teddy Roosevelt believed in talking softly and carrying a big stick. He had two of them that he brandished comfortably - the White Fleet and tariffs.
 
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What evidence do you have this administration doesn't abide by court decisions? Taking lower court decisions to the next level of appeal is a legal mechanism.
Aside from them ignoring a number of court injunctions on the deportations?
 
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