Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[OldSolduer]

A local resident, a senior manager in the public service (who I know), complained at a public consultation that the owner would be making a profit, as if that was somehow disqualifying.

Of course "profit" is a dirty word to communists, the lazy and envious.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I don't think the Americans will win this, to be honest. They can't get past ideology. They have a few lucky things going for them. Power consumption in China per capita is still half that of the US. And at the current rate of closure, China is probably 15 years away from parity. But also, the Chinese can deploy power how they want. Compare that to the backlash against data centres in the US.

To even start to win, the US has to change the entire culture around seeing renewables and EVs as ecofads. There's some pivoting from conservatives in the US. But we're probably a long way from real change. And after attitudes change, they have to the build the manufacturing capacity to catch up. Again, for reference, China installs solar panels every year that are the equivalent of half of Canada's grid. In all these discussions, most people would rather whine about China building coal plants than acknowledge how big their lead is.

The majority just don’t understand that they’ve dig their own hole.

 

[GR66]

I don't think the Americans will win this, to be honest. They can't get past ideology. They have a few lucky things going for them. Power consumption in China per capita is still half that of the US. And at the current rate of closure, China is probably 15 years away from parity. But also, the Chinese can deploy power how they want. Compare that to the backlash against data centres in the US.

To even start to win, the US has to change the entire culture around seeing renewables and EVs as ecofads. There's some pivoting from conservatives in the US. But we're probably a long way from real change. And after attitudes change, they have to the build the manufacturing capacity to catch up. Again, for reference, China installs solar panels every year that are the equivalent of half of Canada's grid. In all these discussions, most people would rather whine about China building coal plants than acknowledge how big their lead is.

Agree with you in general for the short term but in the longer term China is facing two serious own goals that will almost certainly seriously cripple them: demographic collapse and a leadership that is too focused on regional domination rather than regional integration.

A rapidly aging population will cripple domestic demand, increase social service expenditures and weaken productivity. Civil unrest is almost a given if the CCP isn't able to somehow mitigate these trends. If it weren't for the Chinese government's bullying tactics with its neighbours then possibly they could have expanded their regional trading networks with friendly nations like Vietnam and the Philippines in the same way that the US was able to tap into cheap Mexican labour to remain competitive.

The other advantage that the US has over China is geographical isolation from any real competition and access to abundant key resources while China is reliant in imports of food and other key resources.

 

[ytz]

A rapidly aging population will cripple domestic demand, increase social service expenditures and weaken productivity.

You sure about that?

Source: Global robot density in factories doubles over 7 years


I'm not bringing all this up as a way to laud China and to say the situation is hopeless. I just dislike the circle jerk and cope in West where we all huff our own farts and say everything will magically work out, while ignoring what real data says. In this case, while Elon is trying to pump his stock talking about humanoid robots, China is preparing for demographic decline by building one of the most automated manufacturing sectors on the planet. And the majority of commentators haven't noticed.

 

[GR66]

You sure about that?

Source: Global robot density in factories doubles over 7 years

When's the last time you saw a robot spending money at the local grocery store or shopping centre? What are the pension expenses for a robot?

Just because you can use automation to produce a lot of something doesn't automatically create demand for that item.

Surplus new cars in China

We've already seen the results when China begins dumping items below cost into foreign markets because of lack of domestic demand...tariffs and import restrictions. Nobody wants their own industrial base crippled due to the market being flooded by foreign production. Also, what is the long term economic cost to China of wasting its capital (factory production, energy, labour, etc.) on building things they are forced to sell as extremely low margins or even at a loss just to keep the factories open?

 

[ytz]

When's the last time you saw a robot spending money at the local grocery store or shopping centre? What are the pension expenses for a robot?

Just because you can use automation to produce a lot of something doesn't automatically create demand for that item.

Sure. They'll have to change their economy to drive up consumption at home. That's actually a good thing. More quality of life for the average Chinese citizen. Less export capacity. Point here is that anybody hoping that their industrial capacity will decline with population is wrong. They are automating faster than they are aging. I'm not sure the same can be said for the West. And definitely not for Canada.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Quality of life was part of the bargain the CCP made with the citizens of Mainland China for them to stay in their lane and it worked for quite a while. But then the real estate bubble popped, Xi pissing off the world and wasting a lot of money on overseas projects that fizzled. Then the revelations that the population was far more inflated then they had assumed. Toss in tariff war with POTUS that flops around like a fish out of water. Realization that their military leadership might have been skimming far more money meant for parts and upkeep than is good for said combat effectiveness and now a internal struggle for power. China is in big trouble and we don't know all of it, in fact it's likley that even the CCP is not completely aware of how big the problem is.