Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[OldSolduer]

A local resident, a senior manager in the public service (who I know), complained at a public consultation that the owner would be making a profit, as if that was somehow disqualifying.

Of course "profit" is a dirty word to communists, the lazy and envious.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I don't think the Americans will win this, to be honest. They can't get past ideology. They have a few lucky things going for them. Power consumption in China per capita is still half that of the US. And at the current rate of closure, China is probably 15 years away from parity. But also, the Chinese can deploy power how they want. Compare that to the backlash against data centres in the US.

To even start to win, the US has to change the entire culture around seeing renewables and EVs as ecofads. There's some pivoting from conservatives in the US. But we're probably a long way from real change. And after attitudes change, they have to the build the manufacturing capacity to catch up. Again, for reference, China installs solar panels every year that are the equivalent of half of Canada's grid. In all these discussions, most people would rather whine about China building coal plants than acknowledge how big their lead is.

The majority just don’t understand that they’ve dig their own hole.

 

[GR66]

I don't think the Americans will win this, to be honest. They can't get past ideology. They have a few lucky things going for them. Power consumption in China per capita is still half that of the US. And at the current rate of closure, China is probably 15 years away from parity. But also, the Chinese can deploy power how they want. Compare that to the backlash against data centres in the US.

To even start to win, the US has to change the entire culture around seeing renewables and EVs as ecofads. There's some pivoting from conservatives in the US. But we're probably a long way from real change. And after attitudes change, they have to the build the manufacturing capacity to catch up. Again, for reference, China installs solar panels every year that are the equivalent of half of Canada's grid. In all these discussions, most people would rather whine about China building coal plants than acknowledge how big their lead is.

Agree with you in general for the short term but in the longer term China is facing two serious own goals that will almost certainly seriously cripple them: demographic collapse and a leadership that is too focused on regional domination rather than regional integration.

A rapidly aging population will cripple domestic demand, increase social service expenditures and weaken productivity. Civil unrest is almost a given if the CCP isn't able to somehow mitigate these trends. If it weren't for the Chinese government's bullying tactics with its neighbours then possibly they could have expanded their regional trading networks with friendly nations like Vietnam and the Philippines in the same way that the US was able to tap into cheap Mexican labour to remain competitive.

The other advantage that the US has over China is geographical isolation from any real competition and access to abundant key resources while China is reliant in imports of food and other key resources.

 

[ytz]

A rapidly aging population will cripple domestic demand, increase social service expenditures and weaken productivity.

You sure about that?

Source: Global robot density in factories doubles over 7 years


I'm not bringing all this up as a way to laud China and to say the situation is hopeless. I just dislike the circle jerk and cope in West where we all huff our own farts and say everything will magically work out, while ignoring what real data says. In this case, while Elon is trying to pump his stock talking about humanoid robots, China is preparing for demographic decline by building one of the most automated manufacturing sectors on the planet. And the majority of commentators haven't noticed.

 

[GR66]

You sure about that?

Source: Global robot density in factories doubles over 7 years

When's the last time you saw a robot spending money at the local grocery store or shopping centre? What are the pension expenses for a robot?

Just because you can use automation to produce a lot of something doesn't automatically create demand for that item.

Surplus new cars in China

We've already seen the results when China begins dumping items below cost into foreign markets because of lack of domestic demand...tariffs and import restrictions. Nobody wants their own industrial base crippled due to the market being flooded by foreign production. Also, what is the long term economic cost to China of wasting its capital (factory production, energy, labour, etc.) on building things they are forced to sell as extremely low margins or even at a loss just to keep the factories open?

 

[ytz]

When's the last time you saw a robot spending money at the local grocery store or shopping centre? What are the pension expenses for a robot?

Just because you can use automation to produce a lot of something doesn't automatically create demand for that item.

Sure. They'll have to change their economy to drive up consumption at home. That's actually a good thing. More quality of life for the average Chinese citizen. Less export capacity. Point here is that anybody hoping that their industrial capacity will decline with population is wrong. They are automating faster than they are aging. I'm not sure the same can be said for the West. And definitely not for Canada.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Quality of life was part of the bargain the CCP made with the citizens of Mainland China for them to stay in their lane and it worked for quite a while. But then the real estate bubble popped, Xi pissing off the world and wasting a lot of money on overseas projects that fizzled. Then the revelations that the population was far more inflated then they had assumed. Toss in tariff war with POTUS that flops around like a fish out of water. Realization that their military leadership might have been skimming far more money meant for parts and upkeep than is good for said combat effectiveness and now a internal struggle for power. China is in big trouble and we don't know all of it, in fact it's likley that even the CCP is not completely aware of how big the problem is.

 

[Seyek]

the UK really benefited from that didn't they.

Apparently between lower wind costs and reduced demand for natural gas it's saved them £104 billion. I don't have the time or energy to do any kind of deep dive but some quick googling shows £0.03-0.06 per kwh in wind generating costs vs £0.04-0.08 for gas.

Countries and companies all over are increasing investment in wind and solar, although certain parties seem ideologically opposed (and seem to want to bring back the good ol' days of child labourers getting black lung in the coal mines) even where solar/wind makes sense. Meanwhile even China, while it expands coal capacity has reduced it's consumption and expanded wind and solar. Even places like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are starting to invest heavily into solar and wind now, both aiming for 40-50% of power generation in the coming decades.

Quality of life was part of the bargain the CCP made with the citizens of Mainland China for them to stay in their lane and it worked for quite a while. But then the real estate bubble popped, Xi pissing off the world and wasting a lot of money on overseas projects that fizzled. Then the revelations that the population was far more inflated then they had assumed. Toss in tariff war with POTUS that flops around like a fish out of water. Realization that their military leadership might have been skimming far more money meant for parts and upkeep than is good for said combat effectiveness and now a internal struggle for power. China is in big trouble and we don't know all of it, in fact it's likley that even the CCP is not completely aware of how big the problem is.

People have been talking about China collapsing seemingly forever. While I hope Xi get's outed and a more reasonable replacement comes in I have strong doubts about China having any kind of collapse or other major issues. Re: the tariff situation - Chinese manufacturing has grown, while the US' has declined, so it doesn't to be working as advertised. Meanwhile the US has driven many others to make friendly with China in regards to trade again where they were supporting US efforts before.

 

[ytz]

People have been talking about China collapsing seemingly forever.

It's straight up wishcasting.

Also straight up contradictory. I'm not sure how these folks square, "China is the greatest threat" and "China is about to collapse".

Personally, I don't think they are going to collapse. And I think they are a threat.

 

[ytz]

Countries and companies all over are increasing investment in wind and solar, although certain parties seem ideologically opposed

It's kinda funny that the biggest solar and wind boom in the US is in Texas. They thought less regulation would bring more gas plants. Turns out that deregulation favours projects that are quick to build and have a lower capital barrier.

ERCOT increasingly meets rising demand with solar, wind, and batteries - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

 

[GR66]

It's straight up wishcasting.

Also straight up contradictory. I'm not sure how these folks square, "China is the greatest threat" and "China is about to collapse".

Personally, I don't think they are going to collapse. And I think they are a threat.

While I don't believe that China is facing a literal "collapse", I do believe that they are facing a number of headwinds which will limit their current trajectory in relation the the US (and the West overall), many of which are of their own making.

I agree that they are probably the major threat because they are still at the stage of increasing their power (and their power differential with the US) but are also likely aware of the issues that will increasingly be facing them going forward. That I think is what makes them the greatest threat...the thought that their (and Xi's) window of opportunity may be closing in the near future whereas previously I believe they felt they could simply play the long game and outlast the US.

I also agree with you that the West is well behind the curve in relation to China in many areas, but that won't last forever. The West will (and is) slowly responding and has some significant structural advantages over China which will allow them to respond and close those gaps.

We should definitely take some lessons from China and make the changes needed to our own economies. Hopefully Trump and crew taking exactly the wrong lessons will spark Carney and the rest of the West to get our collective act together and respond appropriately. Eventually the US will realize their mistakes as well and reverse course. It may be a long and painful process for them but as a country they have very strong advantages going for them which will help in the long run.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

It's straight up wishcasting.

Also straight up contradictory. I'm not sure how these folks square, "China is the greatest threat" and "China is about to collapse".

Personally, I don't think they are going to collapse. And I think they are a threat.

Look at the history of China, and it collapses on itself from internal issues. This is more of the same. Several issues are at play. First the power struggle between Zhang and Xi. If Xi wins, expect to see power consolidated in a very small circle around Xi, with war a greater possibility in the near future. If Zhang wins, the CCP power structure returns to "normal" and walk back from confrontations with the west.
Attempts to promote internal consumption are not working well and Chinese government policies have been based on unrealistic population numbers and that demographic slide is picking up speed. China cannot exploit Russia demographic slide in the east as they will likely not be able to populate the territory they have now.
China is also discovering that their overseas possessions are not as secure or valuable as they thought and are going to take more resources to control, at a time when their own economy is shrinking. They are frantically pushing things like the EV's, because they are desperate to keep workers employed and not revolting.

AI comments on unemployment, (notice the youth numbers and historically what happens when you have large numbers of unemployed youth):


Unemployment in China, particularly among youth, has been a significant economic and social concern in recent years, with the surveyed urban unemployment rate holding steady at 5.1% in December 2025. While the broader, headline unemployment figure has remained relatively stable, youth unemployment has experienced intense pressure due to structural mismatches and a slowing economic environment.
Key Unemployment Data (As of Early 2026)

• Surveyed Urban Unemployment Rate: 5.1% in December 2025, consistent with November and October, slightly lower than in mid-2025.
• Youth Unemployment (16-24 years old): After hitting a record high of 21.3% in June 2023, the government adjusted its calculation method to exclude students, with rates hovering in the mid-to-high teens throughout 2024 and 2025 (16.5% in December 2025).
• Migration Unemployment: The unemployment rate for migrant workers was 4.7% in December 2025.
• Regional Differences: Unemployment rates vary significantly, with higher rates often reported in the northeastern regions compared to the south.

Major Factors Influencing Unemployment

• Record Number of Graduates: A record 12.2 million university students graduated in 2025, adding to the fierce competition for jobs, particularly white-collar roles.
• Structural Mismatches: There is a significant gap between the skills of educated youth and the jobs available, which are often in lower-skilled or manual sectors.
• Economic Slowdown: Weak consumer confidence, a struggling real estate market, and reduced corporate hiring in the private sector (specifically tech and education) have lowered demand for labor.
• "Lying Flat" and "Rotten-tail Kids": Many young, unemployed professionals are choosing to "lie flat" (not actively seeking jobs) or have become "rotten-tail kids" (highly educated but underemployed or jobless).

 

[lenaitch]

And the world's biggest hydro project - in Tibet... note they don't tend to have the same issues with indigenous consultations as we do

Nor the environment it seems.

Three Gorges dam causes downstream erosion--study

www.reuters.com

Offshore is a whole different beast. They are bigger and have much higher utilization. And no real concerns from NIMBYs. Except maybe Trump in Scotland. The UK is a great example of what can be done. Nearly a fifth of their power is now wind.

If memory serves, proposals offshore of Toronto and Prince Edward County foundered at least in part to the 'visual pollution' objection. I believe Ontario still has a moratorium in place but I could be wrong.

Which may be true but at least we have a society where dissent is allowed.