What has Venezuela and this done to China ?
My thoughts on the implications for China:
To start, I believe China’s main strategic objectives are:
1. Stability and perpetuation of their current political regime.
2. Capture and integration of Taiwan with mainland China.
3. Regional economic
dominance and military
leverage
4. Global economic
integration and leverage.
Essentially they want to own their region of Southeast Asia, subject to the realistic constraints imposed by rival powers. Their
strategy, I believe, is to leverage their autocratic system to maintain campaign plans much longer than those western democracies can. In this long game approach they will buy whatever they can, and finance as much else as they’re able so that they firmly control resource and trade flows. Where they can extend this reach globally, they will. Somewhere in all this they’ll invade Taiwan.
So that said- Iran (and I guess Venezuela) as it pertains to China:
1. China’s biggest geopolitical foil is the United States
and the systems of alliances and relations it maintains. America’s hamfisted approach to Iran, in the context of its increasingly abusive treatment of allies and trading partners,
weakens the counterbalance to China. China, without having to change a thing, comes out looking relatively more reasonable, reliable, and predictable than it did before because Americas has become less these things. China becomes relatively more attractive than it was as a trade partner and diplomatic alignment.
2. The destruction within Iran provides massive opportunity for China to flood in capital to rebuild industry and infrastructure. Those familiar with the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative will see in this economic opportunity that China loves to exploit. Help another country build, and do it on terms where now they owe you and are beholden to you. To a lesser extent some of this opportunity may be found in other Gulf states too.
3. China already enjoyed access to Iranian oil at a discount. This will remain the case subject to necessary rebuilding.
4. China is benefitting from a real life torture test of American IADS and other combat systems. From Iran’s attacks on the region, China will learn some things applicable to an eventual assault on Taiwan. Everything from the performance and vulnerability of individual systems, to the economics of flooding a system with cheap munitions to attrition it and empty magazines. While much of this could be theorized, China gets to observe a natural experiment play out.
5. Depletion of American munitions stocks will create a short to mid term window of opportunity for aggression against Taiwan. Doesn’t mean they’ll take it, but everyone will know it’s there, and that’s leverage.
6. Current American capabilities are being laid bare to a certain extent. How they fight, what works, what has soft spots. Some outright weaknesses.
7. China is suffering somewhat from the short term impact on oil and other commodity markets. But, as a supplier of some finished/refined products to other regional countries, China is seeing how those countries respond to shortages. This helps China understand and calibrate their own leverage. (
”We regret your comments regarding our operations in the vicinity of our wayward province, and note with concern your logistical support to the United States. Now, moving on. If you turn to page six you’ll note that urgent maintenance will force offline some of our refineries in the coming days. Regrettably…”)
Anyway, some Saturday morning coffee thoughts as I sit here between diaper changes.
