Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Brad Sallows]

Still struggling to think through.

Regime survival is the basic goal.

What are their stretch goals if they achieve those and how would they achieve them?

You go ahead and state those if you think they're important. You probably know them better than I do. They aspire to be a big fish in their pond, meddling with neighbours in general and pursuing a religious grudge match with Israel in particular. Not a wise fight to pick, but as you say, ideology. For a change they're enjoying the novelty of reacting, only the opening round has been a lot more damaging than a few rockets launched into residential neighbourhoods. At this point, Iran will have to stretch just to get back to where it was and should probably not waste much money unless it can put together a defence sufficient to prevent going through all this again. Just making it harder won't be enough - if it takes 12 weeks to do what used to take 4 weeks, they still end up replacing the same stuff again. They won't know whether it's enough until it's tested, and they won't know if the Other Side has been clever enough to figure out ways to make Iran's next set of gear just as ineffectual as the old. Their best gear and adaptations right now are apparently good enough to handle '80s aircraft with upgrades.

Meanwhile they have other pressing problems, and while almost anyone can close the Strait, it's much harder to force it open. Iran needs trade, too.

 

[childs56]

1) Unless you want to put in a National Energy Program, prices for oil will not be set in Canada. So what happens over there still matters economically over here.

2) Nobody is building pipelines to anywhere in weeks. Let alone filling them.

True but if we can provide reliable oil and gas to the world then prices can stabilize.

I’m not certain about the part about EC, I’ve just read the Irving will be replacing Saudi oil with Newfie oil for its Saint John refinery. The question should be, why is Irving not using Newfie oil in Saint John all along? It’s complete BS that they are not. Ship oil a few hundred miles or ship it thousands of miles from Saudi?
Anyone have any ideas on this?

Oil for weapons program, cheaper oil (embargo oil mixed in), tanker contracts, Bombardier and SNC to name a few reasons.

whats cheaper?

Embargo oil mixed with legit oil from the ME.

 

[PrairieFella]

I can't imagine the Israelis or the Americans are shedding many tears over the occasional detonation in Qatar given their - shall we say duplicitous - role in association with Hamas.

Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman have been as solidly in the western camp as any in that region are likely to be.

Yemen has never been the same since Denis Healey yanked Mad Mitch from the Crater. They could have gone the Oman route.

Which leaves the House of Saud and the UAE.

I would have thought the UAE would have been solidly in the western camp as well. I think they still are despite the enemy of my enemy stuff in the Sudan.

The continuing problem is the religious civil war within the House of Saud - the liberals and the conservatives with neither side moving past their illiberal tendencies.

And Pakistan is in much the same boat as the House of Saud.

Iraq, like Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, is just a battlefield.

Turkey sits on the sidelines and looks for opportunities

Iran, and in particular, the IRGC mob, sits in the middle. As I have said before it played the same role in Afghanistan and Iran as Cambodia and Laos did in Vietnam. Sovereign sanctuaries protected by, and exploiting, the laws of the United Nations.

If Trump is going to act like a bull in a china shop he might as well make sure he smashes all the crockery.

In my opinion all of the slaver states should be overthrown and relegated to the dustbin of history. UAE and Saudi are evil regimes and in a just world theyd be sanctioned to high heaven. Theyre vile and we should wash our hands of them in any way possible.

 

[Kirkhill]

Why was the Warthog there in the first place?

 

[Kirkhill]

In my opinion all of the slaver states should be overthrown and relegated to the dustbin of history. UAE and Saudi are evil regimes and in a just world theyd be sanctioned to high heaven. Theyre vile and we should wash our hands of them in any way possible.

Unfortunately it is a hard slog when everyone is your enemy all at once.

You have to keep chipping away at the edges. And even then it turns out that nations have very long memories, as the Brits are finding out. No friends left.

 

[PrairieFella]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2040235101418582286

Yeah she'll buff.

 

[HavokFour]

Almost missed this with all the buzz around the shootdowns today.

Not clear whether or not they paid a toll. So either deals are being made or Iran might be honoring the highlighted.

Japanese, French and Omani vessels cross the Strait of Hormuz

Three Omani-operated tankers, a French-owned container ship and a Japanese-owned gas carrier have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since Thursday, shipping data showed, reflecting Iran's policy to allow passage for vessels it deems friendly.

www.reuters.com

Iran initially shut the Strait - a route for about a fifth of global oil and LNG flows - after U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran at the end of February led to a widening conflict. Later, it said it would ⁠permit transits by ships with no U.S. or Israeli links.

The French vessel changed its Automatic Identification System destination to "Owner France" before entering Iranian waters, signalling its nationality to Iranian authorities.

Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Lines said on Friday that the LNG tanker, Sohar LNG, which ⁠it co-owns, had crossed the Strait, making it the first Japan-linked vessel and the first LNG carrier to do so since the conflict began.

Its spokesperson declined to tell Reuters when the passage occurred or whether negotiations were required.

The ⁠India-flagged ship signalled its destination as "India ship India crew"

 

[Jarnhamar]

Depending how you look at it, Trumps special military operation:

• stopped (or drastically slowed) Iran from building nuclear weapons;
• exposed Iran's ability to create a significant shipping choke hold;
• exposed Iran's drone capabilities; and
• reminded the world how precarious our dependence on oil from the middle east is.

 

[Furniture]

I'm not actually sure if there's a military solution to this anymore

There is definitly a military solution, the real question is whether or not the West cares enough to follow through on it.

You don't need to own the Iranian coast, you just need to keep killing them until the people shooting at tankers decide living is worth more than "death to America"... It worked with the Houthi, there is no reason it can't work in Iran.

As much as people in the West right now are keen to point out our difficulties, Iran is suffering far worse, and so are their enemies in the Persian Gulf. At this point it's a case of weaking/degrading Iran to the point that the Gulf States can manage to open the straits enough to get their products to market.