Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

[brihard]

I believe they need to win 2 now for a majority

That is correct but they want 3, Nathan Erskine-Smith very high probability of going provincial liberals

I believe it was ‘need two more’ before Gladu crossed. With her they only need one and they basically have a lock on two safe ridings in the by-elections. If they also take Terrebonne they’ll have a two seat buffer.

I’ve known her for near on 25 years.
There’s got to be something else going on here. She’s no Liberal. Perhaps if enough Conservatives stack the Liberals, they’ll drive the lefties out if the party?

I’d be very surprised if she wasn’t poached specifically for her professional background in the energy sector. If so it has to come with some relevant position/role already offered to her.

 

[Czech_pivo]

And it looks like we will have Carney until 2029. This is what I said a few pages ago what I want to happen. Basically, Canadians need to fester in their own rotten shit for awhile before they figure it out.

Its not just 'Canadians' its the MP's from the other parties who made conscious decisions to cross the floor and allow the next 4yrs to happen.

 

[ArmyRick]

believe it was ‘need two more’ before Gladu crossed. With her they only need one and they basically have a lock on two safe ridings in the by-elections. If they also take Terrebonne they’ll have a two seat buffer.

They would be safer with a couple seats in the majority terriritory. Otherwise, no one can be out of parliament on any critical votes that could bring them down

 

[ArmyRick]

Its not just 'Canadians' its the MP's from the other parties who made conscious decisions to cross the floor and allow the next 4yrs to happen.

Yup. and in Gladu case, her riding will be ready to lynch her. I know many people down there. She was not the one I expected to cross. I am expecting someone who got ridiculed by a few other conservatives for a stance he took. CBC did a small story on it a few weeks ago. We shall watch and see.

 

[ArmyRick]

Only a rumour but something I heard a few weeks ago is that Liberal backbenchers who have been there for years, are getting a little fed up with shake and bake instant Liberals (floor crossers) getting huge welcomes and their ridings get big rewards.

Thats the kind of thing that can bite the LPC in the ass later.

 

[Halifax Tar]

And it looks like we will have Carney until 2029. This is what I said a few pages ago what I want to happen. Basically, Canadians need to fester in their own rotten shit for awhile before they figure it out.

I was hoping we'd had our fill of that over the previous decade. Apparently the country wants more.

 

[ArmyRick]

I was hoping we'd had our fill of that over the previous decade. Apparently the country wants more.

Yup. Now less talk, more push ups (it reminds me of Cornwallis, when you thought the cock was done but surprise the instructors had more to give)

 

[PPCLI Guy]

They would be safer with a couple seats in the majority terriritory. Otherwise, no one can be out of parliament on any critical votes that could bring them down

Assuming any other party is ready to force an election. I think that unlikely in the next 6-12 months.

 

[MilEME09]

Assuming any other party is ready to force an election. I think that unlikely in the next 6-12 months.

With CPC popularity averaging 31%, and Pierre's own likeability in the tank? they won't force an election, a majority government would atleast give them time to rebuild their image. If Carney gets his majoirty, the time to ditch Pierre would be now, because they will have 3 years to have a leadership race, and rebuild without worry of an election campaign

 

[Czech_pivo]

Assuming any other party is ready to force an election. I think that unlikely in the next 6-12 months.

If the 'other' party loses 1 or more MP's over the next weeks, they may be lookin at a leadership convention and the costs associated with it.

 

[ArmyRick]

With CPC popularity averaging 31%, and Pierre's own likeability in the tank? they won't force an election, a majority government would atleast give them time to rebuild their image. If Carney gets his majoirty, the time to ditch Pierre would be now, because they will have 3 years to have a leadership race, and rebuild without worry of an election campaign

Why obsess over ditching Pierre? Thats the tell that lets the conservatives know that Pierre is the guy because the Liberals in spite of their phony successes, are still afraid of him? There is a reason for that.

Pierre's popularity in the tank, yeah sure. Polls, schmolls, with time, its Carney popularity that will sink lower than a snake's belly. Add to that Avi Lewis may steal the radical commy left from the Liberals.

 

[Halifax Tar]

With CPC popularity averaging 31%, and Pierre's own likeability in the tank? they won't force an election, a majority government would atleast give them time to rebuild their image. If Carney gets his majoirty, the time to ditch Pierre would be now, because they will have 3 years to have a leadership race, and rebuild without worry of an election campaign

Pierre needs to do the honorable thing.

 

[ArmyRick]

If the 'other' party loses 1 or more MP's over the next weeks, they may be lookin at a leadership convention and the costs associated with it.

The conservatives are the only party that has the ability to ditch their leader at any time. The Liberals and NDP refused such caveats in their party constitution.

 

[PuckChaser]

What did they offer her or what dirt do they have on her?

With the absolute dumpster fire our economy is in, I find it hard to believe anyone wanting on that ship unless they've been encouraged by suspicious means.

 

[brihard]

They would be safer with a couple seats in the majority terriritory. Otherwise, no one can be out of parliament on any critical votes that could bring them down

For sure- though bear in mind that in the case of an absence that brings LPC vote count down one bit doesn’t raise the opposition. So if they land with a two seat majority - 174-170 - they can afford three absent without it pulling in the Speaker to break a tie.

Yup. and in Gladu case, her riding will be ready to lynch her.

Yeah, I hope she went into this opened eyes about the pretty awful threats she and her family are gonna face. It’s a gross reality these days.

I know many people down there. She was not the one I expected to cross. I am expecting someone who got ridiculed by a few other conservatives for a stance he took. CBC did a small story on it a few weeks ago. We shall watch and see.

Mike Dawson. Not an outlandish idea… He’s Atlantic, he won as CPC only won the seat by about 400 votes so re-election would be a possibility…

 

[brihard]

What did they offer her or what dirt do they have on her?

With the absolute dumpster fire our economy is in, I find it hard to believe anyone wanting on that ship unless they've been encouraged by suspicious means.

If you look at her professional background pre-politics, I’m not at all surprised PM Carney would want her onboard. I’m sure there’s a position on offer.

 

[Deleted member 175000]

Whoah! Never would have expected Gladu. Nor has her riding been at all close for the LPC, so she’s not doing this with an eye to re-election.

Interesting background as a senior engineer with Suncor. I would expect to see PM Carney immediately deploying into something relevant to the energy sector and infrastructure.

But I mean frig… If she’s in play, who isn’t?

Lol it would seem I was wrong about Shadow Ministers being safe and dismissing the discontent around that email.

In Sarnia Lambton the CPC vote has been more than the sum of LPC and NDP in every election but one (2015) since 2006. This switch likely ends her career with the end of the current government or 2029, which ever comes first.

Seems like a pretty clear "I would rather work across the aisle (literally) and govern for the next 3 years and then retire than spend the next 3,7,9 years being told what to bark and how loud"

 

[ArmyRick]

Pierre needs to do the honorable thing.

At this point, why? The damage your seeing now is from last year stil lagging.

I know how you feel about Pierre. Ask yourself what policies is he f#cked on? What direction?

He bows down and the next conservative leader steps up, then the LPC with the CBC and MSM will character assassinate unless they get a dud they are happy with. They want another O'Toole. They want another left leaning "red" tory. So then people will say "Fuck it, might as well keep voting Carney"

With a few years, Carney (unless he suddenly changes course) will make Brookfield and a few others extremely wealthy, do nothing to solve today's problems and people start looking for alternatives.

People didn't give Harper a mandate until they gave Marin 2 extra years.

 

[Maxman1]

Travel is part of the job, especially for trade and domestic engagement. Regular presence in Parliament particularly during question period is still a core accountability function of the Prime Minister. As pointed out, one of the only ones we have.

It’s one of the few times elected representatives can directly scrutinize government decisions in real time.
Even with a demanding schedule, there’s an expectation that leaders balance external commitments with their responsibilities in the House. It risks creating the perception that accountability is being deprioritized.

Travel may explain some absences, it doesn’t justify a consistent pattern.

Edit spelling

Carney: "I love being PM, except for the brief time I have to spend in Canada"

OTTAWA – Reflecting on being PM for over a year, Mark Carney told reporters that he loves every aspect of the job, except for “the short amount of time I have to spend in Canada every month.” “I’ve enjoyed my time in office immensely,” said Carney. “I like going to international conferences...

thebeaverton.com

 

[Halifax Tar]

Yeah, I hope she went into this opened eyes about the pretty awful threats she and her family are gonna face. It’s a gross reality these days.

We vote ours MPs in as a representative of the people. And the party that those MPs run under means everything.

If you're going to change that, especially in a riding as blue as hers, you're going to have to expect some vitriol, IMHO. FAFO.

This is my whole problem with floor crossing. MPs represent the people who send them to parliament under one banner. If they want to change that banner it should trigger a by-election. The MPs are not there on their own accord, they are representative. The people should be deciding this.