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Littoral Operations

Kirkhill

Puggled and Wabbit Scot.
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The Straits of Hormuz closed by swarms of motor launches with machine guns


Somali pirates still operating off the Horn of Africa


Drug runners still operating in the Caribbean


Russians in the Channel and Storebaelt


Mine and countermine operations in the Straits of Hormuz


Drone operations in the Black Sea


Drone operations in the Gulf of Arabia


....

Indonesia contemplating closing the Straits of Malacca and charging mail


.....

Aussies select the HIMARS - PrSM combination for Coastal Defence (500 to 1000 km range for this Increment 2 missile)


Aussie Littoral Ops


.....

And if the Littoral is defined in terms of the area defined by the range of Coastal Artillery (the move from High Tide, to 3 miles, to 12 miles, to 200 miles of the EEZ), how much of the North Atlantic is not coverable from shore bases on Newfoundland, Greenland, Iceland, the Faroes, the United Kingdom and Norway?

Drone operations in the North Atlantic



.....



"The reliance on drones has drawn criticism from defence analysts, who argue it highlights long-term underinvestment in traditional antisubmarine warfare capabilities.

"“The Royal Navy does not have the ships to do this job coherently or credibly and is looking to address it with drones as they are cheaper,” said RUSI Professor, Peter Roberts, in comments to the BBC."



....

They say that, that it is cheaper, as if it is a bad thing.

Most people want to minimize the cost of defence.

But...

Making defence cheaper has a cost

....

 
Ukraine didn't become the morasse it is because of grand strategic plans and exquisite systems.

It became what it is because everybody and her brother with a smartphone could put a camera and a microphone into the sky along with some explosive device and link them all together through a robust comms network (largely supplied by Starlink) and lots of computing power.

The place is replete with sensors.

We aren't looking at turning the Hubble telescope on the battlefield.
We are looking at the same strategy as any insect.
The insect sees the world through multiple segments, thousands of segments, then its brain smooths the information and creates actionable information.

....

"Given the USAF’s low-cost goals for attritable aircraft – priced at $2-20 million – inexpensive components are important. Second to the jet engine, radar is often one of the most-expensive components of an aircraft. The ability to affordably field a large number of AESA sensors across a fleet of networked attritable UAVs could greatly increase an air force’s awareness."




Sea Giraffe 1X (Compact): In a 2026 contract modification, the U.S. Army ordered 10 Giraffe 1X radars for approximately $23.87 million USD (for all 10), putting the unit cost for the radar hardware alone at roughly $2.4 million USD per unit. (per AI)

....

My problem:

More sensors makes warfare more difficult and the monopoly of the state harder to maintain.

More sensors also makes it harder to be free.
 
Ukraine didn't become the morasse it is because of grand strategic plans and exquisite systems.

It became what it is because everybody and her brother with a smartphone could put a camera and a microphone into the sky along with some explosive device and link them all together through a robust comms network (largely supplied by Starlink) and lots of computing power.

The place is replete with sensors.

We aren't looking at turning the Hubble telescope on the battlefield.
We are looking at the same strategy as any insect.
The insect sees the world through multiple segments, thousands of segments, then its brain smooths the information and creates actionable information.

....

"Given the USAF’s low-cost goals for attritable aircraft – priced at $2-20 million – inexpensive components are important. Second to the jet engine, radar is often one of the most-expensive components of an aircraft. The ability to affordably field a large number of AESA sensors across a fleet of networked attritable UAVs could greatly increase an air force’s awareness."




Sea Giraffe 1X (Compact): In a 2026 contract modification, the U.S. Army ordered 10 Giraffe 1X radars for approximately $23.87 million USD (for all 10), putting the unit cost for the radar hardware alone at roughly $2.4 million USD per unit. (per AI)

....

My problem:

More sensors makes warfare more difficult and the monopoly of the state harder to maintain.

More sensors also makes it harder to be free.
Waiting to read and learn how the Ukkies will implement AI into their drone and counter drone warfare between now and the end of summer.
 
PrSM Littoral.jpg

A troop of 4 HIMARS or CAML-L launchers at each of:

Plymouth
Bergen
Tromso
Torshavn
Reykjavik
Ittoqqortoomiit
Qaqortoq
St. John's

50-100 kg packages delivered in 5 to 10 minutes.
 
Further to....

The Aussies -

Standing up a 2nd HIMARS regiment.

Their current regiment is in the process of receiving 42 launchers. The most recent FMS ask is for another 48.
The contracted prices for the latest batch is given as 2.3 BAUD (1.65 BUSD)

They are also setting up for local PrSM (500 to 1000 km) manufacture to complement the existing GMRLS (75 km) production and the planned GMRLS-ER (150 km) production.


....
 
"The U.S. Air Force wants inexpensive, long-range missiles that can be launched in mass volleys by cargo aircraft.

"According to a recent Request for Information, Beyond Adversary’s Reach, Family of Affordable Mass Missiles, or FAMM-BAR, would be a common air-to-surface missile carried in pallets aboard cargo aircraft. The service envisions producing 1,000 to 2,000 missiles per year for five years."




Why the USAF article?

Because this:

"The initial goal is an anti-ship missile with a range of at least 1,000 nautical missiles, a speed of at least 533 miles per hour and mid-course navigation. The RFI describes the target set as “slow moving maritime.”"
 
Not a Littoral article, literally, applying some literary licence.

But playing on the Democratization of Warfare meme.


The US decapitated the Iranian leadership but stuff keeps happening.
The USN shut down the Iranian Navy but boats with three guys and and gun keep motoring back and forth.
The USAF shut down the Iranian missile system but missiles keep getting launched.
The Houthis keep launching missiles.
Hamas and Hezbollah keep launching missiles.
The Ukrainians keep launching missiles.
The IRA keeps dropping off bombs
The Somalis and the Indonesians keep pirating cargo ships.

The Russians have lost the big war but now they might have found a way to prevent declaring the war lost - good old fashioned partisan little war: petite guerre, guerilla.


...

Paging Jack Sparrow and Capt. Morgan.
 
Perhaps these things are the democratic response to a democratized war:


If they can chase down a Shahed why not an IRA bomber or a shoplifter?


$1000 - $1500
Battery Powered.
Long shelf life.
Easy to replace.
Limited collateral damage.
Scalable effects (Momentum = Mass x Velocity) Adjust the impact from a tap to a penetration by regulating the speed.

15 minutes endurance
15 to 30 km range

Typical Mass of Interceptor Drones - 5 kg
Velocity of Interceptor Drones - 0-450 km/h (125 m/s)
Momentum at point of impact - 0-625 N-s

Momentum of a 7.62mm Ball at close range - 8.5 N-s
Momentum of a 40mm 2 pdr AP at 500 m - 700 - 800 N-s

Just the thing for your local Post Office security company.

...

Sorry for the usual digression. Not sorry. 😁
 
Stupid question from an ignoramus here, concerning HIMARS: Is there mid flight guidance or terminal guidance on the projectiles?

Here's why I ask:
View attachment 100059

50-100 kg packages delivered in 5 to 10 minutes.

An average cargo ship these days will be proceeding along at about 16 Kts: In those 5 to 10 minutes, it will have move between 1.3 and 2.6 NM (that is basically 2.5 to 5 Km). You can almost double that for most warships. We used to zig-zag to reduce the risks from torpedo attacks. If you use the same tactics when entering one of those "range" circles and there is no mid-course/terminal guidance, what are the chance of a hit with HIMARS?
 
Stupid question from an ignoramus here, concerning HIMARS: Is there mid flight guidance or terminal guidance on the projectiles?

Here's why I ask:


An average cargo ship these days will be proceeding along at about 16 Kts: In those 5 to 10 minutes, it will have move between 1.3 and 2.6 NM (that is basically 2.5 to 5 Km). You can almost double that for most warships. We used to zig-zag to reduce the risks from torpedo attacks. If you use the same tactics when entering one of those "range" circles and there is no mid-course/terminal guidance, what are the chance of a hit with HIMARS?
HIMARS can launch the Precision Strike Missile - Increment 2 PrSM is the LBASM (Land-based Anti-Ship Missile) and is due to be fielded in 2028.

Land Based Anti-Ship Missile (Inc 2)​

Increment Two of the PrSM is known officially as the Land Based Anti-Ship Missile. LBASM features a multi-mode seeker, unlike Increment One, enabling it to traverse area denied areas with more ease. As LBASM was in development following the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019, its range is to be increased beyond the previous 310 mi (500 km) threshold, up to an expected 620 mi (1,000 km) range, as well as increasing the speed of the missile. As the name suggests, the LBASM will be an anti-ship ballistic missile, and in collaboration with the multi-mode seeker will have the ability to engage moving targets. It is understood that the first procurement of the missile is to be completed in FY2028, with the United States Marine Corps then receiving them.
Each HIMARS can launch two PrSM
 
Stupid question from an ignoramus here, concerning HIMARS: Is there mid flight guidance or terminal guidance on the projectiles?

Here's why I ask:


An average cargo ship these days will be proceeding along at about 16 Kts: In those 5 to 10 minutes, it will have move between 1.3 and 2.6 NM (that is basically 2.5 to 5 Km). You can almost double that for most warships. We used to zig-zag to reduce the risks from torpedo attacks. If you use the same tactics when entering one of those "range" circles and there is no mid-course/terminal guidance, what are the chance of a hit with HIMARS?

Not stupid. Legit.

The technology pioneered on Merlin 81mm mortar rounds and Brimstone anti-armour missiles is now widely available.

An onboard MMW radar scanning and a picture of the desired target and its preferred impact point permits the round to be launched to the general vicinity so that it can search for its own targets and prosecute.

The 1980s Merlin had a 300 x 300 m search area for an 81mm round at 5 km.

Brimstone can be salvoed to a target area from standoff distances of 50 to 100 km and a fighter can launch 3 Brimstones from a single hard point. One fighter can launch enough Brimstone's to take out an entire Canadian squadron.

INS gets them into the general vicinity, GPS can refine that if it is available but the final search and prosecution is entirely autonomous.

The tech was available in Afghanistan but the need to be more discriminating favoured adding a laser guidance terminal phase as well.

So these rounds have INS, GPS, MMW, and SAL navigation.

I don't believe they have Link 16 comms yet.

But I think we might have to assume that you would be under constant observation by satellites, UAVs and a field of permanent sonobuoys constantly reporting your position.


 
Not stupid. Legit.

The technology pioneered on Merlin 81mm mortar rounds and Brimstone anti-armour missiles is now widely available.

An onboard MMW radar scanning and a picture of the desired target and its preferred impact point permits the round to be launched to the general vicinity so that it can search for its own targets and prosecute.

The 1980s Merlin had a 300 x 300 m search area for an 81mm round at 5 km.

Brimstone can be salvoed to a target area from standoff distances of 50 to 100 km and a fighter can launch 3 Brimstones from a single hard point. One fighter can launch enough Brimstone's to take out an entire Canadian squadron.

INS gets them into the general vicinity, GPS can refine that if it is available but the final search and prosecution is entirely autonomous.

The tech was available in Afghanistan but the need to be more discriminating favoured adding a laser guidance terminal phase as well.

So these rounds have INS, GPS, MMW, and SAL navigation.

I don't believe they have Link 16 comms yet.

But I think we might have to assume that you would be under constant observation by satellites, UAVs and a field of permanent sonobuoys constantly reporting your position.



Thanks. Seen.

BTW, we know we are under constant surveillance. In the navy, we have no low ground or high ground, only favourable or unfavourable weather - we fight in plain sight. However, to defeat what you mention above - for warships at least - we have quite an extensive electronic protective bubble, supplemented by soft kill and hard kill systems, so HIMARS killing a warship is far from a foregone conclusion - making the warship think twice before electing to come within range, sure, but ensuring a kill, not necessarily.
 
Thanks. Seen.

BTW, we know we are under constant surveillance. In the navy, we have no low ground or high ground, only favourable or unfavourable weather - we fight in plain sight. However, to defeat what you mention above - for warships at least - we have quite an extensive electronic protective bubble, supplemented by soft kill and hard kill systems, so HIMARS killing a warship is far from a foregone conclusion - making the warship think twice before electing to come within range, sure, but ensuring a kill, not necessarily.

To which the response is to make you work harder longer by supplying you with a target rich environment of lots of low cost threats.

A PrSM costs in the order of 1-2 MUSD apiece. The launcher costs about 5 MUSD.

No need for a runway to control and defend, an aircraft to operate and maintain or pilots to train an put at risk. No need for a detectable submarine or ship to design, build, crew, operate, obscure and defend.

Just a truck, on any road, parking lot or field manned by two truck drivers whose missiles get launched by a radio command without them touching a button.


And even the truck drivers are superfluous. The truck drives itself to a firing point, transfers target info to the missiles and launches on command, retires to a cache, unloads its empty pods, reloads itself and relocates to a new firing point to await further instructions.
 

Poland buying 290 Korean Chunmoos and 486 HIMARS launchers.

Each HIMARS can launch 2 PrSMs. Each Chunmoo can carry two of the pods of which the HIMARs only carries one. The Chunmoo can't at this time, launch PrSMs. I expect Lockheed and RTX will continue to fight transferring that capability but I fully expect that the Poles, Koreans or Ukrainians will ultimately follow Ukrainian practice and figure out the necessary work arounds.

How many fighters are all those launchers replacing on any given fire mission? How nany guns?

The Aussies are buying 90 HIMARS.

We are buying 17.
 
One more point about the PrSM.

It flies at over Mach 3, or 3700 km/h.

It covers 500 km in less than 8 minutes, 1000 in about 15 minutes, The Spy 7 will likely track the missile from point of launch but how many VLS cells does an RCD have? 24? And how many of those are likely to be loaded with SM6s or SM3s?

A 4 truck troop can launch 8 missiles simultaneously and reload. It can sustain a continuing barrage providing the politicians bought enough missiles.
 
A 4 truck troop can launch 8 missiles simultaneously and reload. It can sustain a continuing barrage providing the politicians bought enough missiles.
Around a 15 minute reload if everything is perfect.
Each reload (pod x2 missiles) will take up 0.5 or 1 truck. So a nice long line of trucks to keep up your continuing barrage that is really pulses every 15 minutes.
 
Around a 15 minute reload if everything is perfect.
Each reload (pod x2 missiles) will take up 0.5 or 1 truck. So a nice long line of trucks to keep up your continuing barrage that is really pulses every 15 minutes.

Do you know if the HIMARS can haul a trailer of reloads as well?

That would give each truck three pods at its disposal.

Another thought is that those 4 launcher trucks could be used to create caches, moving rounds from storage to caches accessible to multiple firing points.

As you note, it comes down to will.
 
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