Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[dapaterson]

Is that sarcasm? Because I’m pretty sure that’s a political claim blown to smithereens by reality.

In fiscal 25/26 Canada spent over (just over) 2 % of GDP on defence.

That does not magically translate into new buildings filled with equipment and matériel overnight.

 

[Kirkhill]

On reaching 2%
Sean Phelan via Michelle Rempel Garner.

Creative accounting won't stop a missile.

The claim that Canada has met its two-percent NATO spending target is debatable at best, and extremely dangerous at worst.

open.substack.com

 

[FJAG]

In fiscal 25/26 Canada spent over (just over) 2 % of GDP on defence.

That does not magically translate into new buildings filled with equipment and matériel overnight.

I must admit that some of the reporting on "is anything really changing" is a bit sickening. Especially since it all is being genereated by my old party which pretty much wasn't any better than the old Trudeau mob.

I'm more than prepared to give the new bunch a reasonable time to come to the table with announcements for new acquisitions. IMHO the infrastructure based ones, and even the pay ones, were the right way to go at the beginning while they get their ducks in a row on the heavy metal stuff. I expect more things will get put out on the table this summer and fall when we get the submarine decision made as well a few other things.

If the Yanks would keep their yaps shut and stop being a**holes, the decision for more F-35s ought to be an easy one to make in conjunction with the sub thing.

 

[PrairieFella]

Im wondering if we'll get anything big at CANSEC next week so they can posture to industry they mean business.

 

[MilEME09]

On reaching 2%
Sean Phelan via Michelle Rempel Garner.

Creative accounting won't stop a missile.

The claim that Canada has met its two-percent NATO spending target is debatable at best, and extremely dangerous at worst.

open.substack.com

Only creative accounting is by the critics imo, NATO definitions of defense spending havent changed, and the GoC moving the CG under dnd for example doesnt change that. They rely on public ignorance thinking NATO just looks at the over all dollar, and doesnt dig deeper, which they do.

 

[AvroArrow92]

Im wondering if we'll get anything big at CANSEC next week so they can posture to industry they mean business.

If I was betting man down select FLIT, top off order of LAV 6 or LAV 6 ASCV, down select for ATGM or GBAD or even an order (less likely), potentially an order for LUV from Roshel or GM Defence. The biggest variable is if they announce an order for Global Eye or maybe L3 Harris AWACS off the Global platform. I thin the last one has a lot more trade/ sovereignty issues, the USA is already throwing a fit with us having true independent ISTAR/ AWACS outside of their ecosystem might tip our hand to much. This is just me spit balling of course. This might also have something to do with CUSMA nego, and tangibly connects to the fighter review program.

 

[PrairieFella]

If I was betting man down select FLIT, top off order of LAV 6 or LAV 6 ASCV, down select for ATGM or GBAD or even an order (less likely), potentially an order for LUV from Roshel or GM Defence. The biggest variable is if they announce an order for Global Eye or maybe L3 Harris AWACS off the Global platform. I thin the last one has a lot more trade/ sovereignty issues, the USA is already throwing a fit with us having true independent ISTAR/ AWACS outside of their ecosystem might tip our hand to much. This is just me spit balling of course. This might also have something to do with CUSMA nego, and tangibly connects to the fighter review program.

As unlikely as it is, an early selection for LUV would be a godsend in my little corner of the Army haha. More realistically, I could see some ALAV or ACSV announcements.

 

[Kirkhill]

Only creative accounting is by the critics imo, NATO definitions of defense spending havent changed, and the GoC moving the CG under dnd for example doesnt change that. They rely on public ignorance thinking NATO just looks at the over all dollar, and doesnt dig deeper, which they do.

Pay raises and new barracks increase the budget. Taking on responsibility for veterans pensions likewise.

Those funds, as the article title says, don't stop missiles.

Nor do they put bullets in rifles or rifles in hands. In those areas we are slow off the mark.

 

[Kirkhill]

If I was betting man down select FLIT, top off order of LAV 6 or LAV 6 ASCV, down select for ATGM or GBAD or even an order (less likely), potentially an order for LUV from Roshel or GM Defence. The biggest variable is if they announce an order for Global Eye or maybe L3 Harris AWACS off the Global platform. I thin the last one has a lot more trade/ sovereignty issues, the USA is already throwing a fit with us having true independent ISTAR/ AWACS outside of their ecosystem might tip our hand to much. This is just me spit balling of course. This might also have something to do with CUSMA nego, and tangibly connects to the fighter review program.

I hope you are right.

With respect to the US, does it really serve our cause nationally to create friction where it isn't necessary?

I have noted before that Canadian US trade negotiations have always had a defence and security element to them.

We cancelled the Avro Arrow, signed up for Bomarc, American fighters and radar lines and got access to the US market, protection from invaders and an Autopact.

The Canada US Free Trade agreement came with the North Warning System.

Even the Permanent Joint Board on Defence traded British "protection" for American "protection" in exchange for more favourable exchange of war goods during WW2, a deal that meant that Canada ended up financially more like America than Britain after the war. It wasn't broke.

....

I absolutely want to see us produce more stuff locally and I think the Europeans have got a lot to offer, especially in fields the Americans struggle in - Ships and AFVs come to mind. But there are places that the Americans are still leading - rocketry for example - and they are adapting that field rapidly. We should hitch ourselves to that wagon.

 

[Kirkhill]

I must admit that some of the reporting on "is anything really changing" is a bit sickening. Especially since it all is being genereated by my old party which pretty much wasn't any better than the old Trudeau mob.

I'm more than prepared to give the new bunch a reasonable time to come to the table with announcements for new acquisitions. IMHO the infrastructure based ones, and even the pay ones, were the right way to go at the beginning while they get their ducks in a row on the heavy metal stuff. I expect more things will get put out on the table this summer and fall when we get the submarine decision made as well a few other things.

If the Yanks would keep their yaps shut and stop being a**holes, the decision for more F-35s ought to be an easy one to make in conjunction with the sub thing.

Would any of this have happened if the Yanks had kept their mouth shut?

In my opinion all of this only happened because the Yanks hired themselves a mouthy spokesperson to say the same things their polite reps had been saying for decades, to no effect.

 

[PrairieFella]

I hope you are right.

With respect to the US, does it really serve our cause nationally to create friction where it isn't necessary?

I have noted before that Canadian US trade negotiations have always had a defence and security element to them.

We cancelled the Avro Arrow, signed up for Bomarc, American fighters and radar lines and got access to the US market, protection from invaders and an Autopact.

The Canada US Free Trade agreement came with the North Warning System.

Even the Permanent Joint Board on Defence traded British "protection" for American "protection" in exchange for more favourable exchange of war goods during WW2, a deal that meant that Canada ended up financially more like America than Britain after the war. It wasn't broke.

....

I absolutely want to see us produce more stuff locally and I think the Europeans have got a lot to offer, especially in fields the Americans struggle in - Ships and AFVs come to mind. But there are places that the Americans are still leading - rocketry for example - and they are adapting that field rapidly. We should hitch ourselves to that wagon.

Threatening a country with annexation and economic annihilation has a tendency to cause some consternation when buying weapons from the offender.

 

[Czech_pivo]

A possible better approach by our government might be to stop telegraphing what their next move(s) are. Stop saying publicly and loudly that we are looking to vastly reduce our def spend on US equipment. Just quietly go about our business doing just that. Why continue to kick sand in the US's face? Why tear a page out of their playbook? Just let the reality slowly sink in that this is the case so that their ability to complain and react is negligible because its too late to doing anything about it. And for God's sake, start with more deeds and less words.

 

[GR66]

Would any of this have happened if the Yanks had kept their mouth shut?

In my opinion all of this only happened because the Yanks hired themselves a mouthy spokesperson to say the same things their polite reps had been saying for decades, to no effect.

When you've been pestering your kid to get off their butt and clean their room and they finally do what you asked do you bitch at them about how they're making the bed?

Yes, we've been laggards on defence spending for decades. Yes it took "a mouthy spokesperson" to finally get us to step up. But if they're going to continue to bitch and threaten when we are (finally) taking the required actions then that is not acting like a trusted ally...it's acting as a bully that wants to control you rather than work with you.

 

[Kirkhill]

Apparently there is a shortage of people in the forces with sales experience.

A lot of deals are made between people that dislike and distrust each other. In fact most deals are made between people that distrust each other.

Making a deal with a friend is a fast route to an ex-friend.

 

[PrairieFella]

Apparently there is a shortage of people in the forces with sales experience.

A lot of deals are made between people that dislike and distrust each other. In fact most deals are made between people that distrust each other.

Making a deal with a friend is a fast route to an ex-friend.

If you want to hand-wave threats to our sovereignty thats your prerogative.

 

[Underway]

We've grabbed the low hanging fruit. Standing offers (tools, stationary, etc...), pay increases, quick infrastructure wins (like buying a condo near a base for troops to live in), TD money, improved benefits (IR as an example).

The next part takes some time and is much harder. Longer term contracts, industrial lag times, infrastructure implementation, large contracts. Stuff has accelerated but I don't know if its done enough. We'll have to see how DIA impacts speed. I don't know what those answers are or what that looks like.

It's going to be harder this year than last, partially because the economy grew as well.

I also want to see a plan, even a rough sketch. I think this year we get a better one as the elements are finally nailing down what a 3.5% military looks like. The RFI's and RFP's are going to come fast and quick this year. DIA is going to really have some clout as well and that might also accelerate things.

 

[Czech_pivo]

We've grabbed the low hanging fruit. Standing offers (tools, stationary, etc...), pay increases, quick infrastructure wins (like buying a condo near a base for troops to live in), TD money, improved benefits (IR as an example).

The next part takes some time and is much harder. Longer term contracts, industrial lag times, infrastructure implementation, large contracts. Stuff has accelerated but I don't know if its done enough. We'll have to see how DIA impacts speed. I don't know what those answers are or what that looks like.

It's going to be harder this year than last, partially because the economy grew as well.

I also want to see a plan, even a rough sketch. I think this year we get a better one as the elements are finally nailing down what a 3.5% military looks like. The RFI's and RFP's are going to come fast and quick this year. DIA is going to really have some clout as well and that might also accelerate things.

All fair points.

 

[Kirkhill]

When you've been pestering your kid to get off their butt and clean their room and they finally do what you asked do you bitch at them about how they're making the bed?

Yes, we've been laggards on defence spending for decades. Yes it took "a mouthy spokesperson" to finally get us to step up. But if they're going to continue to bitch and threaten when we are (finally) taking the required actions then that is not acting like a trusted ally...it's acting as a bully that wants to control you rather than work with you.

I had a Warrant at Gagetown ride me because although I had cleaned the brass kick plates on the doors as ordered they were not clean to his satisfaction.

So I cleaned a bit harder.

And my kids have received some of that same treatment over the years.

After a few decades of delinquency it is going to take a bit more than "Yeah, yeah

 

[Halifax Tar]

A possible better approach by our government might be to stop telegraphing what their next move(s) are. Stop saying publicly and loudly that we are looking to vastly reduce our def spend on US equipment. Just quietly go about our business doing just that. Why continue to kick sand in the US's face? Why tear a page out of their playbook? Just let the reality slowly sink in that this is the case so that their ability to complain and react is negligible because its too late to doing anything about it. And for God's sake, start with more deeds and less words.

Are you expecting the LPC to stop announcing the announcements ?