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The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

30-60 split would be a disaster for the RCAF and Canada.

30 Panthers is not enough to cover our NORAD commitment. It is enough for one really big Sqn and no OTU. It would not placate the Americans.

60 Grippens would form 2 big Sqns and an OTU or 3 weak Sqns and no OTU. The US could be dicks and just block the sale of F414 engines and other US tech, too. And 60 Grippens is too small a number, anyway.

If we are going to go split fleet, the Panther numbers still need to be significant (in the 50s?) and the Grippen buy needs to be big enough to impress the USAF that we are serious.

Edit- YTZ beat me to most of the salient points.

They dont have to block sales just stop loading our pilots on F35 training.
 
Just a stupid question from an ignoramus: For people who know only: Which plane would be better as a drone interceptor?

No details necessary, just your informed conclusion please.
 
Or indicated cutting and cancelling orders has a consequence
Or both... But the consequences for one are far more serious than the other.

There is no way America can refuse the sale of engines, or cut-off pilot training and not suffer severe consequences for their actions. This isn't happening in a vacuum, and America has already said Taiwan will not be getting the stuff they ordered until America restocks it's own shelves.

If it was 2021 and Canada was waffling this bad, they might have gotten away with it, but in the current political climate(of America's own making) it would just be another push toward European or SK kit.
 
Canada has not cancelled or cut any orders.

Canada discussed fleet sizes, but made no written commitment to the JPO for 88 aircraft.

I would suggest running a competition with the state goal of 88 jets is making commitment, legally binding or not.
 
No Squadron will have 30 jets. A really big squadron is 24 jets or so. 15-20 would be more realistic. 30 F-35s would yield 2 average Squadrons. That’s in line with how the Aussies operate. Of course we need all 88 but failing that, at the very least 45 F-35s to have 2 front line units and an OTU.

Isn’t the OTU at 80th FTW on Sheppard AFB?
 
This screams some staffer spitballing and the clue to me is the numbers. 30 and 60 are just too round. What can be gleaned by it is that a split fleet is probably likely. Numbers are anyone's guess.
 
If we are actually going down the split fleet route I'd rather get at least the original requirement of 65 x F-35's (preferably the full 88) and instead of Gripens have Saab build a factory for their supersonic loyal wingman platform (buy 65 or 88 for our own use and more for the export market)


 
The 88 number is a little bit arbitrary. Yes there's a fleet size for NORAD and NATO. But there's a way to manage the different requirements split fleet if required.

It's also a question of how and when. There's a difference between taking Gripens in 2028 and taking them in 2032 after the Hornet to Panther transition is complete.

Finally, this is about politics and not CAF needs. So we won't be building loyal Wingman jets. Or whatever else anybody is hoping for. It will be low IP assembly and low grade structural manufacturing.
 
The 88 number is a little bit arbitrary. Yes there's a fleet size for NORAD and NATO. But there's a way to manage the different requirements split fleet if required.

It's also a question of how and when. There's a difference between taking Gripens in 2028 and taking them in 2032 after the Hornet to Panther transition is complete.

Finally, this is about politics and not CAF needs. So we won't be building loyal Wingman jets. Or whatever else anybody is hoping for. It will be low IP assembly and low grade structural manufacturing.
hmm i was kinda holding out/hoping for some loyal wingman stuff

F35 delivery
2026 4
2027 4
2028 8
2029 14
2030 ??
2031 ??
2032 ??

Gripens??
 
hmm i was kinda holding out/hoping for some loyal wingman stuff

F35 delivery
2026 4
2027 4
2028 8
2029 14
2030 ??
2031 ??
2032 ??

Gripens??
I’m in the camp that we end up with a number of fighters greater than the previous number of 88.
I come to this conclusion by observation. The RCN is going down the path of a much larger number of warships than it’s had in 50yrs - 15 Rivers, 12 subs, 16-20 light frigates - these are numbers beyond anything we’ve had in 50-60yrs.
The Army is being fleshed out for an expansion beyond what it’s had in 40+yrs - AD, Armour, Mobile Arty, HIMARS, more LAV’s, etc. Its expansion hasn’t been finalized in how far it will go.
The RCAF has expanded its tanker fleet, increasing the number of airframes replacing the CP-140’s, acquiring Globaleye’s, UAV’s, expanded helo’s. Based on all of the above I think that it’s very reasonable to expect that it will acquire more than 88 fighters when the dust settles.
 
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