Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[Colin Parkinson]

If Wiki is to be believed and in this case I do, the missiles at the time kind of sucked and the Phantom found the need to be gun armed to achieve kills in the air battles over Vietnam.

McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom II - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Kirkhill]

With the West in general the issue isn't the how, it's the 'why' ...

“Those who have a 'why' to live, can bear with almost any 'how'.” Viktor E. Frankl

I read his book years ago when I live in the CR, changed my thinking and outlook on a number of things. Thanks for reminding me about this, I'm going to find the book in my library and re-read it 30yrs later.

Thanks to both of you for a reference to a book of which I had never heard previously.

 

[lenaitch]

I don't think anyone made the claim that the Avro Arrow was a 'fighter'; it was designed and intended to be an interceptor of approaching Soviet bombers. It was intended to be a lawn dart. If it had hard points in the design (and don't doubt that it would have), I suspect some of them would have been wet, because the proposed 'combat' range was only about 300 miles.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Thanks to both of you for a reference to a book of which I had never heard previously.

Anyone living in Alberta or BC should keep it handy

 

[KevinB]

If Wiki is to be believed and in this case I do, the missiles at the time kind of sucked and the Phantom found the need to be gun armed to achieve kills in the air battles over Vietnam.

McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom II - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

100%
Most of the radar missiles of the time were designed for the interceptor role -- shooting down Bear's, then TU-16 and TU-22's and while the TU-22 was fast - it wasn't maneuverable . Those early radar missiles like the AIM-4 Falcon where not very maneuverable, and required a constant radar lock within a fairly small AOA - so fighters simply maneuvered out of the envelope. The Falcon was a dual seeker - both IR and Radar but in 54 launches in Vietnam only got 5 kills during Rolling Thunder protecting B-52 strikes where the Mig's seemed to be focused on the B-52's
*
The early Sidewinders available in Vietnam where tail trackers only -- so you needed to get a jump on the target and keep it lined up for it to lock -- even then the hit rate was pretty abysmal due to the G load as the Mig's could juke it.

So guns came back to Air to Air -


There is a great excerpt on Wiki on the Falcon AIM-4 Falcon - Wikipedia
Col Robin Old's is quite a character - having read a few books about him -- his rewiring his Phantoms for the Sidewinder was one of his minor clashes with authority in the USAF-- he had once threatened to shoot down the tanker he was trying to tank from - as most of his canopy had been shot away and he had taken 15min to lite a cigar - and the crew didn't want to tank him with the lit cigar - -- then eventually agreed to fill him up, after he encouraged them with the threats.

 

[Kirkhill]

Norway's Kongsberg buys US startup missile maker capable of production in mass quantities

Norway’s KONGSBERG buys U.S. maker of mass-produced missiles

Norway's largest defense company has completed the acquisition of a California missile startup that makes interceptors and strike weapons designed to be produced by the thousands rather than the dozens, bringing a proven American mass-munitions manufacturer into the European defense

defence-blog.com

Germany's Airbus aquiring a variety of UAVs including the US made Valkyrie

Airbus Showcases UAS Portfolio at ILA Berlin | Joint Forces News

Airbus is showcasing one of Europe’s most comprehensive and versatile Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UAS) portfolios at ILA Berlin.

www.joint-forces.com

Britain's BAE buying and cooperating with many UgV suppliers

BAE Systems buys drone-maker Malloy Aeronautics

The acquisition follows a two-year partnership between the companies to develop the all-electric quadcopter T-650.

www.defensenews.com

Herne: How UK–Canada Collaboration is Redefining Autonomous Submarine Warfare – Vanguard

vanguardcanada.com

Denmark buying JASSM-ER from the US for its US built F35s , Greenland notwithstanding

US Approves Long-Range JASSM-ER Missiles for Danish F-35s

The US Department of State has approved a potential $842-million sale of Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles-Extended Range to Denmark.

thedefensepost.com

....

Trends

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I think these UAV's are excellent for persistent surveillance, I firmly believe that the manufactures are hand waving away the struggles of communicating targeting information in real time from underwater at distance.

 

[KevinB]

I think these UAV's are excellent for persistent surveillance,

Outside of contested airspace.
One needs more UAS to make up for losses than most forecast, as well as Satellite and Very High Altitude options.

I firmly believe that the manufactures are hand waving away the struggles of communicating targeting information in real time from underwater at distance.

No
Many large firms have several options and methods for their or others UUV systems.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I like to see a video feed through a thermocline with devices more than 10nm apart. The only way I can see it being done is via fiberoptics.

 

[KevinB]

I like to see a video feed through a thermocline with devices more than 10nm apart. The only way I can see it being done is via fiberoptics.

I have no idea, but I am not 100% you need to have video - especially submerged, as you won’t have any usable visible light, so you are then in other spectrums.

I do know that SubSurface Warfare people (both in Mil and Industry) do not like to talk about communication methods outside a SCIF...

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I have no idea, but I am not 100% you need to have video - especially submerged, as you won’t have any usable visible light, so you are then in other spectrums.

I do know that SubSurface Warfare people (both in Mil and Industry) do not like to talk about communication methods outside a SCIF...

Traditional methods. We used to use the VLF signal in mining exploration, we would go out and measure reflection from ore bodies. After several month the USN would release a dataset on the signal and we would go back and review our data with that information and infer what size and type of ore body we were looking at.

 

[Cloud Cover]

This is not getting the attention it deserves, with the possibility of forcing big changes to AI development in military and commercial systems. It has also been a very long time since the US has export blocked software code in this manner. (PGP Inthink, until somebody simply printed the code as a book).

Statement on the US government directive to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5

The US government has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States.

www.anthropic.com

 

[ytz]

Yes, america was pitching we were dependent, now they are complaining we are becoming independent. Namely because we want to buy less American, so does everyone but they seem to be incapable of self reflection to realize this. Just almost canadians couldn't either

100%

They seem both shocked and bitter that the increased spending isn't going to pay the dividends on their end that they imagined.

You can see this in the rumours that they want to deny MADL integration into the Globaleye. Beyond punitive nonsense what other reason is there for crap like that? That's not just us impacted. That's several NATO customers.

 

[ytz]

Mate, I have the exact same questions.

Hell, I suspect so would the average Canadian.

So does every American defence lobbyist. I literally see this at work because we see the questions coming in. These people aren't motivated by some alliance politics. They are upset that what they saw as easy dollars aren't going their way. And the US Government is getting worried because less allied participation means unit costs for the USG go up. They will get less for their dollars too.

I must admit that some of the reporting on "is anything really changing" is a bit sickening. Especially since it all is being genereated by my old party which pretty much wasn't any better than the old Trudeau mob.

I'm more than prepared to give the new bunch a reasonable time to come to the table with announcements for new acquisitions. IMHO the infrastructure based ones, and even the pay ones, were the right way to go at the beginning while they get their ducks in a row on the heavy metal stuff. I expect more things will get put out on the table this summer and fall when we get the submarine decision made as well a few other things.

Yep. Don't care what the chattering classes say. I have never, ever heard of or seen this much procurement activity in Ottawa. We're at the point where personnel burnout is actually a concern. Tell me if you ever heard that in your career. Of course, that will take years to reach the field. But that doesn't mean it's not happening.

If the Yanks would keep their yaps shut and stop being a**holes, the decision for more F-35s ought to be an easy one to make in conjunction with the sub thing.

Our own politics aside, as I said above, the Americans need to be ignored. Their complaints aren't in good faith anymore.

Compare American behaviour lately to how much European lobbying and invites have increased. That doesn't happen unless they smell real money.

Only creative accounting is by the critics imo, NATO definitions of defense spending havent changed, and the GoC moving the CG under dnd for example doesnt change that. They rely on public ignorance thinking NATO just looks at the over all dollar, and doesnt dig deeper, which they do.

And every alliance member does it to some extent or another. What matters is if Brussels accepts our submissions. And they mostly seem to have. Also, when it comes to the hard power what matters are those classified tables on what we've been assigned to force generate by HQ and how we're moving on that front.

 

[ytz]

This is not getting the attention it deserves, with the possibility of forcing big changes to AI development in military and commercial systems. It has also been a very long time since the US has export blocked software code in this manner. (PGP Inthink, until somebody simply printed the code as a book).

Statement on the US government directive to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5

The US government has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States.

www.anthropic.com

This has everything to do with their domestic politics. Anthropic pulled out of deals with the Pentagon. And Anthropic competitors are Republican donors and supporters. So the Administration is being punitive and trying to hobble Anthropic after their market cap pulled ahead of OpenAI, right before both go to IPO.

 

[Good2Golf]

100%

They seem both shocked and bitter that the increased spending isn't going to pay the dividends on their end that they imagined.

You can see this in the rumours that they want to deny MADL integration into the Globaleye. Beyond punitive nonsense what other reason is there for crap like that? That's not just us impacted. That's several NATO customers.

I say leave MADL alone. It’s on the F-35, so be it. If the U.S. wants to use it as a blackmail tool, don’t bite. MADL isn’t required do or die for C2 anymore than IFDL is , especially if the U.S. plays the “we can A2AD our own Allies” game…neither we, nor anyone else is going to win that game.

 

[Kirkhill]

So does every American defence lobbyist. I literally see this at work because we see the questions coming in. These people aren't motivated by some alliance politics. They are upset that what they saw as easy dollars aren't going their way. And the US Government is getting worried because less allied participation means unit costs for the USG go up. They will get less for their dollars too.



Yep. Don't care what the chattering classes say. I have never, ever heard of or seen this much procurement activity in Ottawa. We're at the point where personnel burnout is actually a concern. Tell me if you ever heard that in your career. Of course, that will take years to reach the field. But that doesn't mean it's not happening.



Our own politics aside, as I said above, the Americans need to be ignored. Their complaints aren't in good faith anymore.

Compare American behaviour lately to how much European lobbying and invites have increased. That doesn't happen unless they smell real money.



And every alliance member does it to some extent or another. What matters is if Brussels accepts our submissions. And they mostly seem to have. Also, when it comes to the hard power what matters are those classified tables on what we've been assigned to force generate by HQ and how we're moving on that front.

My concern is not with the Americans but our own "Canadian" lobbyists.

And the concern is not with where the money goes but on what the money is being spent.

The 20 year plans for fighters and ships and subs aren't my biggest concern.
It is the 2 to 5 year plans for small arms, UxVs, GBAD, LRPFs, Sensors, C3 systems and vehicles that bother me.

I hope that we are learning to be lighter on our feet when it comes to procuring those systems.

 

[ytz]

I say leave MADL alone. It’s on the F-35, so be it. If the U.S. wants to use it as a blackmail tool, don’t bite. MADL isn’t required do or die for C2 anymore than IFDL is , especially if the U.S. plays the “we can A2AD our own Allies” game…neither we, nor anyone else is going to win that game.

Link 16 is past its prime. But the problem is that only the Americans ever fund development of tech like this. So of course they get control.

If we want things to be a NATO standard, et need the alliance to work on developing them.

 

[Kirkhill]

Link 16 is past its prime. But the problem is that only the Americans ever fund development of tech like this. So of course they get control.

If we want things to be a NATO standard, et need the alliance to work on developing them.

In large part this is the effect of Eisenhower's Military Industrial Complex in action. The same Eisenhower that, in 1951, said that if American troops were still in Europe in 1961, then NATO would have been a failure. In 1961 Eisenhower was replaced by Kennedy and the Berlin Wall was built.

Since then the Defence Industry has been a mainstay of US domestic economic policy, foreign policy and exports.

The US aspired to a Defence Monopoly. This discouraged competition which resulted in "allies" not bothering to try and the US skills to stagnate.

In my mind there is a reason why countries like Finland, Sweden, Israel, Turkey, Singapore and South Korea have become dominant innovators. They were outside the "alliance" and forced to take active measures to defend themselves against present dangers.

The problem for the Americans is that they have been selling yesterday's solutions long past their best before date.

...

We were complicit in this. It suited all of us Westerners to pretend that war is over and that we didn't have to worry because the US would always provide what we needed, if and when.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is demonstrating both that war is not over and that wars are fought with the technologies of the day that are available. And the technologies of today are not the technologies of the 1940s that formed the backdrop to the Cold War arsenal.

Which brings me to this article:

Fire Point Unveils Machine Tools for Rocket Engine Production

Fire Point unveiled its own machine tools for rocket engine production at the Eurosatory international defense exhibition in Paris.This was reported by Militarnyi’s correspondent at Eurosatory.According to Denis Shtilerman, the […]

militarnyi.com

In 1940 creating strong, lightweight tubes of 18m length and 2.5m diameter was a major technological effort involving smelting, forging, casting, welding and machining.

Now they can be wound.

And it is that capability, and those like it that are propelling the rapid rate of adaptation, that we need to be focusing on here in Canada.