The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[HavokFour]

For me, I want to see as much as possible signed and sealed before the next election occurs.
If someone else comes next, I want it to be as difficult and as next to impossible for things to be cancelled or cutback on.

Completely agree. Especially if the F-47 is destined to be a US only thing like the F-22, best time to start making plans for the future is now.

 

[OldSolduer]

I get the cynicism. But also, nothing about how defence is being funded, reorg'd and planned today is in line with our history over the last two decades.

Actually our entire history post WW1.

 

[Good2Golf]

Again, as a US Taxpayer none of that means a lot.
IIRC the ‘wealth’ was spread around as to the expected purchase quantity.

No. That’s incorrect.

Workshare was to be based on initial investment and support not aircraft orders I thought(case in point Japan wasn't a partner but is the largest F35 purchaser outside the U.S. yet it's work share reflects it FMS status).

This is correct.

Can't wait for us fo reneg on our commitments only to buy them after a decade long delay.

Mindful of course that Canada didn’t commit to buying any JSFs at all until 2010…well after 13 years of observer status (like in GCAP now) in the Concept Demonstration Phase started in 1997 as an ‘Informed Partner’ and subsequent upgrade to participant in the System Development and Demonstration Phase in 2002 and the Production, Sustainment and Follow-on Development phase in 2006.

Of note, when Canada signed the PSFD MOU in 2006, its position as a producer of JSF components wasn’t secured by purchase of any F-35s, but rather contribution of over half a billion dollars (551 MUSD) into the program.

In 2003, the United States invited the current partners to participate in the Production, Sustainment and Follow-on Development phase of the program. In December 2006, Canada signed the JSF Production, Sustainment and Follow-on Development Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). The cost for Canada to participate in this phase is approximately U.S.$551 million over the course of the 2007-2051 timeframe. This contribution will be used to cover Canada's portion of production, sustainment and follow-on development costs, including common tooling, sustainment, and follow-on development activities.

Ref: Canada News Centre - Canada's Next Generation Fighter Capability : The Joint Strike Fighter F-35 Lightning II

The U.S. position of bullying F-35 current and future operators, many who are key integrated members in its production, is more than a bit shortsighted. Part of the reasons the JSF Program brought so many nations into the development and production program was to provide capabilities cheaper and with greater certainty than American aerospace fabrication could assure. Of the U.S. went “Fortress America” in further F-35 production by cutting all the international partners out of the program, production would essentially cease and the aircraft would eventually become an unsustainable technological orphan. This would pretty much be the definition of ‘cut your nose off to spite your face.’

 

[tomydoom]

Actually our entire history post WW1.

Louis St Laurent was pretty decent for defence.

 

[ytz]

Again, as a US Taxpayer none of that means a lot.
IIRC the ‘wealth’ was spread around as to the expected purchase quantity.

The wealth was spread around to court orders. But it was spread around to amortize development costs across a wider base.

There was no guaranteed buy. And even the US services themselves have substantially reduced the number of projected orders. Insisting that foreign partners be held to a higher standard that the US would be quite novel and a boneheaded way to kill future orders. Also, a huge chunk of the US Military and taxpayer cost advantage comes from these foreign partners and foreign order. The F-35 offers incredible value, in no small part, because for every 5 frames the US buys, the foreign partners buy 2. That has contributed to reducing ongoing development costs and unit costs substantially.

Eldridge Colby had a long whiny screed on Twitter yesterday whining about Middle Powers not buying from the US. I don't think they actually thought defence dollars would be diverted in such quantity and with such speed elsewhere. And I am guessing the spreadsheets at the Pentagon are starting to show how painful this will be for both DoD and the taxpayer going forward. I put it to you that this is well earned after all the threats and bullying. Had this been simply about geopolitical realignment ("We're going off to IndoPac."), it wouldn't have been the same. When the Danes had to plan to blow up runways in Greenland and moved blood over, the calculus changed. Colby is probably discovering that the math is not so great now. All his dreams of some grand force to fight China are probably getting repriced as fast as his screen refreshes.

Coming back to your post. The US is free to show even more hostility by ripping up existing access. But you shouldn't be surprised when suddenly prices for everything DOD is planning on buying for the next two decades doubles in price. Hope you're prepared to pay for that as a taxpayer.