Political impacts of Ukraine war

[RangerRay]

I can think of another conflict that is doing infinitely more damage with significantly more boats involved, and far less being shot at.

Under the bus they go in the name of salvaging the mess the US created.

[FT]JD Vance asked Ukraine to halt strikes on tankers using Russian port​

Archive

Ukraine should tell Vance to go pound sand.

 

[HavokFour]

Another day, more Russian drones being somewhere they shouldn't be.

This time 2 shot down/crashed Gebera drones were found floating awfully close to Romania's largest offshore natural gas extraction project.

Russian drones found near vital European offshore gas site, get blown up

This follows many drone incursions into Romania and a failed attack in Germany.

arstechnica.com

 

[KevinB]

Another day, more Russian drones being somewhere they shouldn't be.

This time 2 shot down/crashed Gebera drones were found floating awfully close to Romania's largest offshore natural gas extraction project.

Russian drones found near vital European offshore gas site, get blown up

This follows many drone incursions into Romania and a failed attack in Germany.

arstechnica.com

Remember it’s not escalation if it’s Russian.

Predatory actions are their natural state.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Ukraine should tell Vance to go pound sand.

Well, it seems they didn't on the oil tankers ...

Volodymyr Zelensky halts Ukraine drone strikes on Black Sea oil tankers after US request | The Jerusalem Post

Ukraine agreed to not target non-Russian ships, so long as they were not sanctioned by Ukraine or carrying any Russian cargo.

www.jpost.com

Ukraine Halts Drone Strikes On Oil Tankers Using Russia's Black Sea Port After US Request

Marine Insight - The maritime industry guide.

www.marineinsight.com

... but other targets still seem good to go.

Ukraine hits grain terminals at Russia’s Novorossiysk port, killing three

The Russian Black Sea city 'endured a horrific night', with a child killed and dozens of buildings damaged, says mayor.

www.aljazeera.com

Meanwhile, in other news, <Boris Badinov accent>Nothing to see here, brother, move along ....</Boris Badinov accent>

Russia Cracks Down On Photos Of Graves That Reveal The Cost Of War

Russian authorities are bringing treason charges against people for taking photos of war graves, a key indicator of the extent of the country's war dead. An activist has told Current Time that the photos are often also used by scammers targeting families who have lost relatives in the fighting.

www.rferl.org

 

[Altair]

Hey, found the reason Trump U turned on the Patriots being built by Ukraine

Ukraine May Be Just the Ally America Needs

The country Trump once disdained as a burden has become a military powerhouse.

www.theatlantic.com

On the Hill, one Republican official in favor of the license told me about an unreported hiccup in the deal. Raytheon and Lockheed, the makers of the Patriot system, “will officially frame their concerns around IP theft and tech transfer,” he said, but “their real worry is that the Ukrainians will find a way to improve the Patriot and then produce them at scale faster and for much less money than what the existing production lines in the U.S. could do.”

Gotta love capitalism mixed with defense industrial complex protectionism.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Gotta love capitalism mixed with defense industrial complex protectionism.

What they're doing is sometimes called "crony capitalism", but it isn't capitalism. Borrowing the word doesn't change the fact that it's something else which, with its flaws, is not evidence to support some kind of denunciation of capitalism.

 

[Altair]

Moved

 

[KevinB]

Hey, found the reason Trump U turned on the Patriots being built by Ukraine

Ukraine May Be Just the Ally America Needs

The country Trump once disdained as a burden has become a military powerhouse.

www.theatlantic.com

Gotta love capitalism mixed with defense industrial complex protectionism.

LocMart and Raytheon where in discussions months ago with Ukrainian government officials about domestic production of Patriot and some other items prior to POTUS running his mouth. Considering it isn’t a USG TDP item, the USG has zero authority to offer any of it for licensing.

 

[Altair]

LocMart and Raytheon where in discussions months ago with Ukrainian government officials about domestic production of Patriot and some other items prior to POTUS running his mouth. Considering it isn’t a USG TDP item, the USG has zero authority to offer any of it for licensing.

We should want Ukraine to be making cheaper, faster to manufacture patriots considering the situation the west finds itself in.

Worrying about corporate profit protectionism while Western stockpiles are depleted is incredibly short-sighted.

 

[KevinB]

We should want Ukraine to be making cheaper, faster to manufacture patriots considering the situation the west finds itself in

The Patriot was originally slated for replacement and obsolescence. MBDA and LocMart had won the replacement with MEADS. Now Raytheon and LocMart modernized a lot of Patriot systems to give options like MEADS did, but Patriot really isn’t the system for C-UAS and dealing with OWAUs or LM’s.
It’s primarily a AMD system for SCUD type systems, AGM’s and INF types missiles.

Using Patriot and TTHAAD for non ballistic threats is like taking a Sniper Rifle to shoot ants — sure it can work, but it isn’t efficient.

The AD/C-UAS/C-RAM network needs a lot of layers -

Worrying about corporate profit protectionism while Western stockpiles are depleted is incredibly short-sighted.

The USG interfering and trying to control the deal is the worst of both worlds.

 

[Altair]

The Patriot was originally slated for replacement and obsolescence. MBDA and LocMart had won the replacement with MEADS. Now Raytheon and LocMart modernized a lot of Patriot systems to give options like MEADS did, but Patriot really isn’t the system for C-UAS and dealing with OWAUs or LM’s.
It’s primarily a AMD system for SCUD type systems, AGM’s and INF types missiles.

Using Patriot and TTHAAD for non ballistic threats is like taking a Sniper Rifle to shoot ants — sure it can work, but it isn’t efficient.

The AD/C-UAS/C-RAM network needs a lot of layers -


The USG interfering and trying to control the deal is the worst of both worlds.

I mean, you're right, firing a 4 million dollar patriot at a 20k shahed isn't the way to go.

But Ukraine realized that years ago. They have the sting series of drone interceptors for the low-grade stuff, 2k a pop to knock out a 20k shahed.
It's precisely what the Patriot is meant to shoot down, ballistic missiles, that the Ukrainians need right now. Because Western supply lines are struggling to keep pace, Ukraine simply isn't getting them at the scale they need.

They are too expensive, too slow to build, and too slow to stockpile. That leaves the USA, the Gulf, and NATO in general in a rough spot.
The one thing that can help is giving the Ukrainians the specs to the PAC-2 so they can strip out all the bells and whistles. Creating a cheap but effective, easy to mass-produce alternative would help Ukraine and the West.

And again, it’s the PAC-2. While that production line has recently restarted in the West to help deal with global shortages, it's not the bread and butter for Lockheed and Raytheon anymore. The only reason to withhold it is if they genuinely believe the Ukrainians will improve upon it so greatly it surpasses the PAC-3.

 

[HavokFour]

And again, it’s the PAC-2. While that production line has recently restarted in the West to help deal with global shortages, it's not the bread and butter for Lockheed and Raytheon anymore. The only reason to withhold it is if they genuinely believe the Ukrainians will improve upon it so greatly it surpasses the PAC-3.

FREYA is expected to have a working prototype early next year, and at ~$700,000 per missile it may prove to be an extremely strong Patriot contender depending on how it performs.

 

[PrairieFella]

FREYA is expected to have a working prototype early next year, and at ~$700,000 per missile it may prove to be an extremely strong Patriot contender depending on how it performs.

These interceptors desperately need to drop a zero on the price at least. Thats becoming abundantly clear with the proliferation of deep strike.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Remember this big ol' plane?

One step closer to Canada handing over an AN-124 to UKR ....

Canada takes more legal action to possess huge Russian plane stranded at Toronto Pearson Airport in Mississauga | INsauga

The Canadian government has taken further legal action in seeking to gain full possession of a huge Russian cargo plane that’s been stranded at Toronto Pearson Airport in Mississauga for more than three years. The Russian-owned Antonov An-124 aircraft in dispute, the world’s largest...

www.insauga.com

Canada Moves to Give Ukraine Stranded Russian Cargo Plane - The Moscow Times

Canada is moving forward with a legal bid to gain full possession of a Russian Antonov An-124 cargo plane and potentially hand it over to Ukraine, the country’s foreign ministry has said.

www.themoscowtimes.com

This from the Canada Gazette from end of February, with the DoJ order from last month attached, if you're into the whole regulatory minutiae thing

Canada Gazette, Part 2, Volume 159, Number 5: Order Respecting the Seizure of Property Situated in Canada (Aircraft RA-82078)

February 26, 2025, Part 2, Volume 159, Number 5, Canada Gazette

gazette.gc.ca

Yet another step closer to giving it to UKR: Fed Court says no to sanctions relief for the owner of the big honkin' plane still at Pearson.

Canadian judge denies Russian cargo airline sanctions relief

A Federal Court judge has shot down a plea for sanctions relief by the Russian company that owns the massive cargo plane Canada seized after the start of the Ukraine war.

www.cp24.com

Volga Dnepr Airlines LLC v. Canada (Foreign Affairs) - Federal Court

decisions.fct-cf.gc.ca

Latest decision also attached.

 

[KevinB]

These interceptors desperately need to drop a zero on the price at least. Thats becoming abundantly clear with the proliferation of deep strike.

I posted this on the Artillery Modernization thread -- but it is germane to this as well.
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All of which are frankly way way too expensive for C-UAS/C-RAM requirements.

We need to come to the understanding that 20-50mm cannon and energy systems are the only cost effective manner of C-UAS/C-RAM when align with the scope and scale they needs to be available at.

Some of the Mini and Micro Missile systems are expected to be affordable enough to use against Drone Swarms in the thousands - I am hopeful - but still view them as AN option, not THE option.

Air Defense against enemy aircraft and/or ballistic missiles can be conducted with expensive interceptors as those are both expensive and limited items for most foes, but the cost of not interdicting them is exceptionally high that the cost benefit falls in favor of using high end expensive munitions in the defense.


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Most countries and their militaries are having trouble rationalizing the various threats, but it is important to do so. Range, Altitude, Payload, Density, Probability (and the list can go on)

Certain capabilities are always going to be expensive -- want long range and high altitude (including outside the atmosphere) impact kill interception capability? that is going to be expensive - as the rocket/missile needs fuel to get there at a speed that makes it viable as well as the navigation system and relays.

This is where HTK Interceptors live - things like THAAD, THAAD-ER and the Patriots.
The “cheap” PAC-2 is a 80,000ft ceiling 160km range interceptor, the range and height grows (as does cost) with the others.

These systems are designed to interdict WMD systems, where a pre fragmented blast warhead may not defeat the incoming threat - they are a hypersonic kamikaze protective system.

Using them on glide bombs, conventional cruise missiles, and various OWUAS/Loitering Munitions isn’t a practical usage of their capabilities.

----------
Next we have the Long Range SAM’s like the SM-6 (RIM-174) these use a explosive warhead to defeat enemy threats, 110,000ft ceiling and ~400km range -- these are also very expensive, as they use the dual mode seeker off the AMRAAM.

Practical for defending a ship against a significant threat, but not the ideal system to attempt to knock down Shahed type OWUAS attack drones.

Even short range (predominately designed as Air to Air) missile systems are expensive -

The only practical solution is multiple different systems in overlapping range bands networked together.


-------------
Lets go back and look at the threats in Ukraine and the Iran theatre.

The other thing is the term Shahed UAS nomenclature covers 20 models, as in Soviet fashion the name of factory is used as the prefix to the model number - these models vary significantly in size, speed, payload.

But one of the key aspects to Iranian/Russian OWUAS is that they are (at least for now) subsonic - and while payloads vary from 50kg to over 1500kg, the low speed allows for interception by a lot of lower end options.
Primarily for UAS the limiting factor of engagement options are 1) Detection 2) Altitude

MALE and HALE UAS are generally immune to direct fire when flying at their service ceilings, generally those are either ISR systems, and/or precision effect launchers, most practical engagement of these seem to be using aircraft internal cannon or naval gunfire.

Using the Shahed 136 as an average threat for a OWUAS.
140km cruising speed
Max Service Ceiling of 4,000m (13k ft), average flight altitude 2,500m (~8k ft)
Payload up to 98kg (~200lbs)

It is easy to see why a 35mm-45mm cannon is pretty much optimal for a C-UAS system for these sorts of OWUAS -- the cost per round isn’t ridiculous, and one can reach out and touch them far enough away that the SUAS payload should be entirely burned out (some have incendiary payloads, but most are HE). Downsides are the need for a lot of systems to cover all the terrain needed - and a locating /targeting network.

 

[PrairieFella]

Welcome back, flakvierling 38

 

[KevinB]

Welcome back, flakvierling 38

I kind of like the RM SkyRanger

Skyranger – Mobile air defence

With the Oerlikon Skyranger® family Rheinmetall offers self-propelled air defence systems to protect mobile vital assets such as mechanized forces or convoys.

www.rheinmetall.com

 

[Altair]

I posted this on the Artillery Modernization thread -- but it is germane to this as well.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All of which are frankly way way too expensive for C-UAS/C-RAM requirements.

We need to come to the understanding that 20-50mm cannon and energy systems are the only cost effective manner of C-UAS/C-RAM when align with the scope and scale they needs to be available at.

Some of the Mini and Micro Missile systems are expected to be affordable enough to use against Drone Swarms in the thousands - I am hopeful - but still view them as AN option, not THE option.

Air Defense against enemy aircraft and/or ballistic missiles can be conducted with expensive interceptors as those are both expensive and limited items for most foes, but the cost of not interdicting them is exceptionally high that the cost benefit falls in favor of using high end expensive munitions in the defense.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most countries and their militaries are having trouble rationalizing the various threats, but it is important to do so. Range, Altitude, Payload, Density, Probability (and the list can go on)

Certain capabilities are always going to be expensive -- want long range and high altitude (including outside the atmosphere) impact kill interception capability? that is going to be expensive - as the rocket/missile needs fuel to get there at a speed that makes it viable as well as the navigation system and relays.

This is where HTK Interceptors live - things like THAAD, THAAD-ER and the Patriots.
The “cheap” PAC-2 is a 80,000ft ceiling 160km range interceptor, the range and height grows (as does cost) with the others.

These systems are designed to interdict WMD systems, where a pre fragmented blast warhead may not defeat the incoming threat - they are a hypersonic kamikaze protective system.

Using them on glide bombs, conventional cruise missiles, and various OWUAS/Loitering Munitions isn’t a practical usage of their capabilities.

----------
Next we have the Long Range SAM’s like the SM-6 (RIM-174) these use a explosive warhead to defeat enemy threats, 110,000ft ceiling and ~400km range -- these are also very expensive, as they use the dual mode seeker off the AMRAAM.

Practical for defending a ship against a significant threat, but not the ideal system to attempt to knock down Shahed type OWUAS attack drones.

Even short range (predominately designed as Air to Air) missile systems are expensive -

The only practical solution is multiple different systems in overlapping range bands networked together.


-------------
Lets go back and look at the threats in Ukraine and the Iran theatre.

The other thing is the term Shahed UAS nomenclature covers 20 models, as in Soviet fashion the name of factory is used as the prefix to the model number - these models vary significantly in size, speed, payload.

But one of the key aspects to Iranian/Russian OWUAS is that they are (at least for now) subsonic - and while payloads vary from 50kg to over 1500kg, the low speed allows for interception by a lot of lower end options.
Primarily for UAS the limiting factor of engagement options are 1) Detection 2) Altitude

MALE and HALE UAS are generally immune to direct fire when flying at their service ceilings, generally those are either ISR systems, and/or precision effect launchers, most practical engagement of these seem to be using aircraft internal cannon or naval gunfire.

Using the Shahed 136 as an average threat for a OWUAS.
140km cruising speed
Max Service Ceiling of 4,000m (13k ft), average flight altitude 2,500m (~8k ft)
Payload up to 98kg (~200lbs)

It is easy to see why a 35mm-45mm cannon is pretty much optimal for a C-UAS system for these sorts of OWUAS -- the cost per round isn’t ridiculous, and one can reach out and touch them far enough away that the SUAS payload should be entirely burned out (some have incendiary payloads, but most are HE). Downsides are the need for a lot of systems to cover all the terrain needed - and a locating /targeting network.

The sting has a pretty good success rate versus the shahed, and its cheap as dirt.

If it ain't broke...