Political impacts of Ukraine war

[RangerRay]

I can think of another conflict that is doing infinitely more damage with significantly more boats involved, and far less being shot at.

Under the bus they go in the name of salvaging the mess the US created.

[FT]JD Vance asked Ukraine to halt strikes on tankers using Russian port​

Archive

Ukraine should tell Vance to go pound sand.

 

[HavokFour]

Another day, more Russian drones being somewhere they shouldn't be.

This time 2 shot down/crashed Gebera drones were found floating awfully close to Romania's largest offshore natural gas extraction project.

Russian drones found near vital European offshore gas site, get blown up

This follows many drone incursions into Romania and a failed attack in Germany.

arstechnica.com

 

[KevinB]

Another day, more Russian drones being somewhere they shouldn't be.

This time 2 shot down/crashed Gebera drones were found floating awfully close to Romania's largest offshore natural gas extraction project.

Russian drones found near vital European offshore gas site, get blown up

This follows many drone incursions into Romania and a failed attack in Germany.

arstechnica.com

Remember it’s not escalation if it’s Russian.

Predatory actions are their natural state.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Ukraine should tell Vance to go pound sand.

Well, it seems they didn't on the oil tankers ...

Volodymyr Zelensky halts Ukraine drone strikes on Black Sea oil tankers after US request | The Jerusalem Post

Ukraine agreed to not target non-Russian ships, so long as they were not sanctioned by Ukraine or carrying any Russian cargo.

www.jpost.com

Ukraine Halts Drone Strikes On Oil Tankers Using Russia's Black Sea Port After US Request

Marine Insight - The maritime industry guide.

www.marineinsight.com

... but other targets still seem good to go.

Ukraine hits grain terminals at Russia’s Novorossiysk port, killing three

The Russian Black Sea city 'endured a horrific night', with a child killed and dozens of buildings damaged, says mayor.

www.aljazeera.com

Meanwhile, in other news, <Boris Badinov accent>Nothing to see here, brother, move along ....</Boris Badinov accent>

Russia Cracks Down On Photos Of Graves That Reveal The Cost Of War

Russian authorities are bringing treason charges against people for taking photos of war graves, a key indicator of the extent of the country's war dead. An activist has told Current Time that the photos are often also used by scammers targeting families who have lost relatives in the fighting.

www.rferl.org

 

[Altair]

Hey, found the reason Trump U turned on the Patriots being built by Ukraine

Ukraine May Be Just the Ally America Needs

The country Trump once disdained as a burden has become a military powerhouse.

www.theatlantic.com

On the Hill, one Republican official in favor of the license told me about an unreported hiccup in the deal. Raytheon and Lockheed, the makers of the Patriot system, “will officially frame their concerns around IP theft and tech transfer,” he said, but “their real worry is that the Ukrainians will find a way to improve the Patriot and then produce them at scale faster and for much less money than what the existing production lines in the U.S. could do.”

Gotta love capitalism mixed with defense industrial complex protectionism.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Gotta love capitalism mixed with defense industrial complex protectionism.

What they're doing is sometimes called "crony capitalism", but it isn't capitalism. Borrowing the word doesn't change the fact that it's something else which, with its flaws, is not evidence to support some kind of denunciation of capitalism.

 

[Altair]

Moved

 

[KevinB]

Hey, found the reason Trump U turned on the Patriots being built by Ukraine

Ukraine May Be Just the Ally America Needs

The country Trump once disdained as a burden has become a military powerhouse.

www.theatlantic.com

Gotta love capitalism mixed with defense industrial complex protectionism.

LocMart and Raytheon where in discussions months ago with Ukrainian government officials about domestic production of Patriot and some other items prior to POTUS running his mouth. Considering it isn’t a USG TDP item, the USG has zero authority to offer any of it for licensing.

 

[Altair]

LocMart and Raytheon where in discussions months ago with Ukrainian government officials about domestic production of Patriot and some other items prior to POTUS running his mouth. Considering it isn’t a USG TDP item, the USG has zero authority to offer any of it for licensing.

We should want Ukraine to be making cheaper, faster to manufacture patriots considering the situation the west finds itself in.

Worrying about corporate profit protectionism while Western stockpiles are depleted is incredibly short-sighted.

 

[KevinB]

We should want Ukraine to be making cheaper, faster to manufacture patriots considering the situation the west finds itself in

The Patriot was originally slated for replacement and obsolescence. MBDA and LocMart had won the replacement with MEADS. Now Raytheon and LocMart modernized a lot of Patriot systems to give options like MEADS did, but Patriot really isn’t the system for C-UAS and dealing with OWAUs or LM’s.
It’s primarily a AMD system for SCUD type systems, AGM’s and INF types missiles.

Using Patriot and TTHAAD for non ballistic threats is like taking a Sniper Rifle to shoot ants — sure it can work, but it isn’t efficient.

The AD/C-UAS/C-RAM network needs a lot of layers -

Worrying about corporate profit protectionism while Western stockpiles are depleted is incredibly short-sighted.

The USG interfering and trying to control the deal is the worst of both worlds.

 

[Altair]

The Patriot was originally slated for replacement and obsolescence. MBDA and LocMart had won the replacement with MEADS. Now Raytheon and LocMart modernized a lot of Patriot systems to give options like MEADS did, but Patriot really isn’t the system for C-UAS and dealing with OWAUs or LM’s.
It’s primarily a AMD system for SCUD type systems, AGM’s and INF types missiles.

Using Patriot and TTHAAD for non ballistic threats is like taking a Sniper Rifle to shoot ants — sure it can work, but it isn’t efficient.

The AD/C-UAS/C-RAM network needs a lot of layers -


The USG interfering and trying to control the deal is the worst of both worlds.

I mean, you're right, firing a 4 million dollar patriot at a 20k shahed isn't the way to go.

But Ukraine realized that years ago. They have the sting series of drone interceptors for the low-grade stuff, 2k a pop to knock out a 20k shahed.
It's precisely what the Patriot is meant to shoot down, ballistic missiles, that the Ukrainians need right now. Because Western supply lines are struggling to keep pace, Ukraine simply isn't getting them at the scale they need.

They are too expensive, too slow to build, and too slow to stockpile. That leaves the USA, the Gulf, and NATO in general in a rough spot.
The one thing that can help is giving the Ukrainians the specs to the PAC-2 so they can strip out all the bells and whistles. Creating a cheap but effective, easy to mass-produce alternative would help Ukraine and the West.

And again, it’s the PAC-2. While that production line has recently restarted in the West to help deal with global shortages, it's not the bread and butter for Lockheed and Raytheon anymore. The only reason to withhold it is if they genuinely believe the Ukrainians will improve upon it so greatly it surpasses the PAC-3.

 

[HavokFour]

And again, it’s the PAC-2. While that production line has recently restarted in the West to help deal with global shortages, it's not the bread and butter for Lockheed and Raytheon anymore. The only reason to withhold it is if they genuinely believe the Ukrainians will improve upon it so greatly it surpasses the PAC-3.

FREYA is expected to have a working prototype early next year, and at ~$700,000 per missile it may prove to be an extremely strong Patriot contender depending on how it performs.

 

[PrairieFella]

FREYA is expected to have a working prototype early next year, and at ~$700,000 per missile it may prove to be an extremely strong Patriot contender depending on how it performs.

These interceptors desperately need to drop a zero on the price at least. Thats becoming abundantly clear with the proliferation of deep strike.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Remember this big ol' plane?

One step closer to Canada handing over an AN-124 to UKR ....

Canada takes more legal action to possess huge Russian plane stranded at Toronto Pearson Airport in Mississauga | INsauga

The Canadian government has taken further legal action in seeking to gain full possession of a huge Russian cargo plane that’s been stranded at Toronto Pearson Airport in Mississauga for more than three years. The Russian-owned Antonov An-124 aircraft in dispute, the world’s largest...

www.insauga.com

Canada Moves to Give Ukraine Stranded Russian Cargo Plane - The Moscow Times

Canada is moving forward with a legal bid to gain full possession of a Russian Antonov An-124 cargo plane and potentially hand it over to Ukraine, the country’s foreign ministry has said.

www.themoscowtimes.com

This from the Canada Gazette from end of February, with the DoJ order from last month attached, if you're into the whole regulatory minutiae thing

Canada Gazette, Part 2, Volume 159, Number 5: Order Respecting the Seizure of Property Situated in Canada (Aircraft RA-82078)

February 26, 2025, Part 2, Volume 159, Number 5, Canada Gazette

gazette.gc.ca

Yet another step closer to giving it to UKR: Fed Court says no to sanctions relief for the owner of the big honkin' plane still at Pearson.

Canadian judge denies Russian cargo airline sanctions relief

A Federal Court judge has shot down a plea for sanctions relief by the Russian company that owns the massive cargo plane Canada seized after the start of the Ukraine war.

www.cp24.com

Volga Dnepr Airlines LLC v. Canada (Foreign Affairs) - Federal Court

decisions.fct-cf.gc.ca

Latest decision also attached.