2026 US-Denmark Tensions/End of NATO

[Altair]

I didn't propose those things. I shall restate what I wrote more explicitly, since implied bits may not have been obvious: "US-favouring foreign policy and procurement [on the part of others] aren't reasonable expectations [on the part of the US]".

Except they very much are.

Again, its fine. Trump wants to tank NATO. He's doing a wonderful job on that file

 

[Furniture]

US-favouring foreign policy and procurement aren't reasonable expectations. As for use, "Please spend a bunch of money establishing facilities in our country. We reserve the right to prevent you from using the facilities" is a difficult proposition to sell.

America is often times more interested in maintaining their presence than the host nation is in having them...

Alienating allies is what got the usage of bases restricted in the first place. Further alienating allies is asking for host nations to invite America to leave. Particularly if the assistance of America hinges on stroking the ego of the guy sitting in the oval office.

 

[Brad Sallows]

America is often times more interested in maintaining their presence than the host nation is in having them...

Alienating allies is what got the usage of bases restricted in the first place. Further alienating allies is asking for host nations to invite America to leave. Particularly if the assistance of America hinges on stroking the ego of the guy sitting in the oval office.

All fine. The US didn't - contrary to what many people think - ask for or seek the role of "world policemen". The US drew down its forces rapidly after WW II, and it was the realization - shared with some of its western allies - that there was no hope the USSR would not be aggressively expansionist (and in particular the realization that war in Korea was likely imminent and the former western allies were remarkably unprepared) that kicked off reactions which led to the US becoming a military powerhouse (again).

So here we are. But the policeman role some people (many here) seem to lament that the US is abandoning can't be effectively conducted only from the US and its sovereign territories. It's practical only if the policeman has a worldwide network of bases. Some of those are bound to end up in countries that, in their own bilateral relations, are not particularly friendly. So it's probable that some things the US wants to do that suit country B, or even just the US, will not suit country A. But if countries start vetoing the use of bases, the whole necessary structure falls apart. Either everyone who wants to profit by the relative peace dividend joins in and suppresses their occasional dissatisfaction, or the entire enterprise is fated to eventually unwind. And no "but this was exceptionally egregious" excuse matters, even if it's a manifestly righteous claim. I stipulate that Trump's talk (eg. Greenland) and actions (eg. Iran) are almost intolerable - but not absolutely intolerable - and that any nation may fairly pull the plug. But that worsens the situation.

It's unfortunate that Trump's bluster and bullying has become part of the cost, but there is always some kind of cost. A question is whether it's worth putting up with another two-and-a-half years of his crap in the hope something resembling the pre-Trump status quo can be salvaged. It think it's worthwhile and possible.

I suspect that a cold numbers analysis would reveal that in the medium to long term it's much, much cheaper for any particular country to put up with Trump's crap for now than to re-arm and try to establish new alliances and coalitions. Almost no-one plays a long game, though.

 

[Good2Golf]

American troops offer two guarantees.
1) USD is spent in your country
2) Anyone wanting to harm you risks the wrath of the US Military*

*assuming that it isn’t the US military that is coming to harm you in the first point.

You forgot 3) Make your nation’s CDE # non-zero.

The US didn't - contrary to what many people think - ask for or seek the role of "world policemen".

Peak hegemony…world policemen. Potayto…potahto.

 

[Altair]

I suspect that a cold numbers analysis would reveal that in the medium to long term it's much, much cheaper for any particular country to put up with Trump's crap for now than to re-arm and try to establish new alliances and coalitions. Almost no-one plays a long game, though.

At the US own request, everyone, minus Spain, is going to 5 percent anyways.

All this will do is speed up procurement of non US weapon systems.

 

[YZT580]

At the US own request, everyone, minus Spain, is going to 5 percent anyways.

All this will do is speed up procurement of non US weapon systems.

but they are not lining up to buy U.S. equipment anymore if there is an option and that is beginning to hurt as contracts go to other firms.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Peak hegemony…world policemen. Potayto…potahto.

Whatever. Other nations have had over 80 years to do more and thereby lessen US dominance, and it's useful to remember that it started because a bunch of important players - not just the US - wanted it to.

 

[Good2Golf]

Whatever. Other nations have had over 80 years to do more and thereby lessen US dominance, and it's useful to remember that it started because a bunch of important players - not just the US - wanted it to.

Poor unappreciated USA.

 

[YZT580]

Poor unappreciated USA.

sarcasm aside, there is a lot of truth in this statement. The USA stepped in to replace the British navy and it only took a few years for that service to be cut to the point of irrelevance. We had the what, 3rd largest navy in the world; how long did it take to tow them to the breakers. We downsized and bailed out of Europe, one base at a time because the Americans were there and we weren't needed. Once that happened or while it was happening we went from over 300 combat aircraft (excluding the F5) to what do we have now less than 100 serviceable airframes not to mention the army shrinkage as well. It is an old adage but the one who pays the piper calls the tune so either we figure out how to get along with an admittedly obnoxious neighbour or we move to another neighbourhood because that tune isn't going to change for a while and we haven't got the luxury of time to drag our asses this time. Figure shades of 1939

 

[Good2Golf]

The U.S. benefited greatly from the UK actually providing the naval blockade forces back in the early days of U.S. implementing The Monroe Doctrine, for which the UK was aspirationally ‘bent over the proverbial rum barrel and buggered’ by the U.S. post WWII. The U.S. is very good at making it look like it gave all and got little in return…yet look at the hissy fit when the U.S. doesn’t get its way 100% using (previous) Allies (Spain) like pawns when it’s doing its own thing. If a number of nations collectively and coordinated appropriately chose to remove the bandaid and have the U.S. no longer “benevolizing” them from behind and deal with perhaps 5-10 years of economic pain for future gain, the U.S. would have to meaningfully assess is hegemonic exclusivity aspirations…the perfect storm of declining reserve currency and petrodollar influence and exponential debt servicing growth impinging on national affordability (FCF for those with an financial mind) is growing…

 

[YZT580]

The U.S. benefited greatly from the UK actually providing the naval blockade forces back in the early days of U.S. implementing The Monroe Doctrine, for which the UK was aspirationally ‘bent over the proverbial rum barrel and buggered’ by the U.S. post WWII. The U.S. is very good at making it look like it gave all and got little in return…yet look at the hissy fit when the U.S. doesn’t get its way 100% using (previous) Allies (Spain) like pawns when it’s doing its own thing. If a number of nations collectively and coordinated appropriately chose to remove the bandaid and have the U.S. no longer “benevolizing” them from behind and deal with perhaps 5-10 years of economic pain for future gain, the U.S. would have to meaningfully assess is hegemonic exclusivity aspirations…the perfect storm of declining reserve currency and petrodollar influence and exponential debt servicing growth impinging on national affordability (FCF for those with an financial mind) is growing…

Too true but who is going to go first?

 

[lenaitch]

sarcasm aside, there is a lot of truth in this statement. The USA stepped in to replace the British navy and it only took a few years for that service to be cut to the point of irrelevance. We had the what, 3rd largest navy in the world; how long did it take to tow them to the breakers. We downsized and bailed out of Europe, one base at a time because the Americans were there and we weren't needed. Once that happened or while it was happening we went from over 300 combat aircraft (excluding the F5) to what do we have now less than 100 serviceable airframes not to mention the army shrinkage as well. It is an old adage but the one who pays the piper calls the tune so either we figure out how to get along with an admittedly obnoxious neighbour or we move to another neighbourhood because that tune isn't going to change for a while and we haven't got the luxury of time to drag our asses this time. Figure shades of 1939

Fair, but does any of that give them licence to shake down any country it chooses for its territory, demand absolute fealty to anything it choses to do unilaterally or expect that it be the sole supplier of commerce?

 

[Altair]

Fair, but does any of that give them licence to shake down any country it chooses for its territory, demand absolute fealty to anything it choses to do unilaterally or expect that it be the sole supplier of commerce?

Big winner here.

France.

For generations France has been complaining to deaf ears, especially deaf German ears, that the USA was using NATO as a vehicle to harm European sovereignty and push their foreign policy.

And now the USA has let the mask slip, vindicated every French president from de Gaulle to Macron, and now Germany, egg firmly on face, will likely acquiesce to the French campaign for European strategic autonomy.

France is stepping into the void America is creating in NATO and Europe and so long as they dont bottle it come their next elections, France will have its hand on the steering wheel of Europe for the foreseeable future.

The two pillars of US influence in Europe, the UK and Germany, have now been taken out of play, the UK by brexit, and Germany by Trump.

The yanks still have Poland but Poland doesnt have the sway yet to challenge France.

Good times.

 

[Brad Sallows]

France's complaints, viewed from another angle, amount to merely envy that NATO has never been French enough and that its position is approximately third banana (behind UK and Germany).

What exactly is "European sovereignty"?

 

[Good2Golf]

The yanks still have Poland but Poland doesnt have the sway yet to challenge France.

Poland is now under France’s nuclear umbrella. The French nuke-capable Rafales are still deployed to Poland last I heard. Some may say that Poland is only “pragmatically beholden” to the U.S. if the U.S. continues with its soft-on-Russia policies, the U.S. multi-decade honeymoon with Poland will be over soon enough.

 

[Gordon Dundas/]

Poland is now under France’s nuclear umbrella. The French nuke-capable Rafales are still deployed to Poland last I heard. Some may say that Poland is only “pragmatically beholden” to the U.S. if the U.S. continues with its soft-on-Russia policies, the U.S. multi-decade honeymoon with Poland will be over soon enough.

And you can damned well believe the Poles are taking France's promises with a pinch of salt as well. This isn't their first rodeo.

 

[Altair]

France's complaints, viewed from another angle, amount to merely envy that NATO has never been French enough and that its position is approximately third banana (behind UK and Germany).

Except that France is now exactly where it wants to be, using the EU to create what it never could in NATO.

And Trump is only strengthening Paris here.

Germany is taking part in French nuclear drills

The UK is setting up a nuclear deterrence program with France.

Germany recently got rid of Palantir

The European Defense industrial program locks out the USA in terms or defense procurement.

These are all shifts towards Paris.

What exactly is "European sovereignty"?

In this context, freedom from the American supply chain, bypassing ITAR, and operation base autonomy.

 

[Altair]

And you can damned well believe the Poles are taking France's promises with a pinch of salt as well. This isn't their first rodeo.

Listen, Napoleon tried.

Daladier not so much.

 

[Altair]

Poland is now under France’s nuclear umbrella. The French nuke-capable Rafales are still deployed to Poland last I heard. Some may say that Poland is only “pragmatically beholden” to the U.S. if the U.S. continues with its soft-on-Russia policies, the U.S. multi-decade honeymoon with Poland will be over soon enough.

"Poland has not yet perished, so long as we still live, and what foreign force has taken from us, we shall with sabre retrieve. March, march, Dąbrowski, from Italy to Poland, and under your command, we shall rejoin the nation.

We'll cross the Vistula, we'll cross the Warta, and we shall be Polish, with Bonaparte giving us the example of how to prevail. March, march, Dąbrowski, from Italy to Poland, and under your command, we shall rejoin the nation.

Like Czarniecki to Poznań after the Swedish annexation, to save our homeland, we shall return across the sea. March, march, Dąbrowski, from Italy to Poland, and under your command, we shall rejoin the nation.

A father, in tears, says to his Basia: Listen, our boys are said to be beating the tarabans. March, march, Dąbrowski, from Italy to Poland, and under your command, we shall rejoin the nation."

I trust Poland will eventually get back to their roots.

 

[Good2Golf]

And you can damned well believe the Poles are taking France's promises with a pinch of salt as well. This isn't their first rodeo.

France isn’t soft on the nation that perpetrated Katyn forest massacre.