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Seniors Benefits Discussion- split from Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

I'd love to see Carney propose a more radical rethink of OAS than Harper, then, after the complaints, move to something only a bit more radical than Harper.

For example, suggest OAS moving from 65 to 70 at a rate of 6 months per year (so a ten year transition) and inflating at half of the CPI increase.

I don't think OAS will ever get fixed. The biggest defenders of it are usually the supposed fiscal conservatives screaming to cut everything else. Full of excuses on why OAS should never be cut and why everything else is wasteful. Entitled to their entitlements.

At this point, just work around it. Just build whatever else. And eventually when the Boomers are gone we'll be forced to deal with the can kicking.
 
I don't think OAS will ever get fixed. The biggest defenders of it are usually the supposed fiscal conservatives screaming to cut everything else.
Of course they are. Binders full of studies to prove it.
At this point, just work around it. Just build whatever else. And eventually when the Boomers are gone we'll be forced to deal with the can kicking.
When the Boomers are gone, each generation in succession is likely to be equally selfish. It's not as if conservative parties in Canada are overthrowing Liberal and NDP governments everywhere on the strength of voters under 60, and most new spending programs are established by Liberal or NDP or both working together.

The only kicked can that's likely to be fixed will be when voters effectively draw a line through resurgent defence spending.
 
The only kicked can that's likely to be fixed will be when voters effectively draw a line through resurgent defence spending.

Quite the bet to assume that voters will choose defence spending over everything else while they perceive less and less value from their taxes as more and more goes to OAS, debt interest and defence. One of those three is untouchable. Make OAS untouchable and they will cut the third.
 
Quite the bet to assume that voters will choose defence spending over everything else while they perceive less and less value from their taxes as more and more goes to OAS, debt interest and defence. One of those three is untouchable. Make OAS untouchable and they will cut the third.
Based on history, expecting Canadians to show low support for defence spending is the safest bet. As much as some people gripe in the abstract about the cost of OAS, I can guess that a large number of people will very concretely have at least one relative or know one recently departed who is/was just getting by on OAS/GIS. Reformers ought to be very specific about reform; if they don't distinguish themselves from "cut OAS" and sloppily express their aim as "cut OAS", they'll be branded as "cut OAS" and won't get much sympathy. I support stricter means testing; I'm confident that the people who are projecting bitter inter-generational resentment and refusing to correctly select the aim for fixing federal spending aren't going to succeed.
 
Gen Squeeze says capping the income threshold at $100k would save $7B. The majority of the public wants a lower threshold in line with Child Benefits. If you don't think kids need to be fed after the parents make $81k, their grandparents definitely don't need more pogey.

Paul Kershaw argues the current income threshold for phasing out OAS benefits is too high. Under existing rules, retired couples earning up to $185,000 annually can still receive the full benefit of roughly $18,000.

Kershaw says that threshold means only about four per cent of seniors are excluded from receiving OAS due to high income.

“This generosity helps explain why OAS’s rapidly rising cost is a primary contributor to Ottawa’s $78-billion deficit,” he said.

A new poll by Research Co. suggests Canadians are open to changes. The survey found that three-quarters of respondents support reform—including three in four Canadians of retirement age.

About 70 per cent of respondents said OAS payments should be reduced for retirees with six-figure incomes. The proposal includes lowering the household income eligibility threshold from $185,000 to $100,000—a move Research Co. estimates could save roughly $7 billion annually.

Research Co. president Mario Canseco says just over 60 per cent of those surveyed believe the OAS threshold should be the same as, or lower than, the $81,000 cutoff used for the Canada Child Benefit.

Both Kershaw and Research Co. estimate that broader reforms could generate up to $20 billion in annual savings.

...


Here's Prof Kershaw presenting the Gen Squeeze proposal at a presser:


And Gen Squeeze has broadly argued that higher defence spending is part of generational fairness and that among other obligations a rusted out military is like passing down rusted out infrastructure.
 
Gen Squeeze says capping the income threshold at $100k would save $7B. The majority of the public wants a lower threshold in line with Child Benefits. If you don't think kids need to be fed after the parents make $81k, their grandparents definitely don't need more pogey.
So, wonder of wonders, we're not going to save $100 billion. People should not keep throwing that number out unless they advocate complete elimination of the program.

So keep going. What happens at $81K, or at Canadian median income?
 
So, wonder of wonders, we're not going to save $100 billion. People should not keep throwing that number out unless they advocate complete elimination of the program.

Nobody said we're going to save $100B. Stop with the Strawman.

Likewise, nobody says cancelling Alto will close the deficit. Doesn't stop your ilk from campaigning for that. But $7B going to other priorities (including deficit, defence and infrastructure) is a hell of a lot better use of that money than pogey to people with six figure incomes. Your previous argument was that nobody had articulated a proposal. Now you have one.
 
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Nobody said we're going to save $100B. Stop with the Strawman.
I understand that there are games that can be played with words and numbers in order to advance points of view. OAS has become a new whipping boy (in some mentions surpassing the deficit itself for first mention), but it works best if the biggest possible number can be presented. So we have people writing about how the annual cost of OAS is projected to be more than $100B in a few years. It's not the actual amount that can be saved short of eliminating the program, and it's not even the actual amount spent right now, but it's a nice round big-sounding figure. It's fair to call that behaviour out.

A reasonable means test could save some money, but obviously not three figures. Honest interlocutors will highlight those numbers, not try to misdirect people about what is reasonable and practical, and accept the fact that $7B or $10B or some other modest claimed savings isn't going to get people as usefully excited about the issue. And they won't allude to fixing the deficit if their goal is merely to redirect the money somewhere else, or vice versa.
 
$7-10B per year is "modest" now?

Let's remember this next time you get worked up about a program or policy that costs a few billion per year.

Also, that $7-10B is in 2026 when OAS is $89B. Imagine what the savings will be on the current policy when OAS is projected at $137B in 2035, $159B in 2040, and $207B in 2050.

Lastly, if we're seriously intent on growing defence (and related) spending to 5% of GDP, that makes the three fastest growing components of federal spending as defence, interest payments and OAS. They are all in competition. And only two of them can be cut without serious economic consequences.
 
Looking at this table eligibility for OAS is going to peak in around 35 years and then decline, there is going to be a bump in about 5 years, flatten for 15 and then start to the peak after that.

 
$7-10B per year is "modest" now?
Compared to $100B, yes.
Let's remember this next time you get worked up about a program or policy that costs a few billion per year.
I get worked up a particular new cost because it contributes to the accretion of costs. It shouldn't be difficult to correctly comprehend that I don't object to $7B in savings; it's just that I want it talked about as $7B in savings - preferably alongside a whole bunch of other proposed absolute cuts - and not obscured by misleading top line numbers that are not what is achievable.
Lastly, if we're seriously intent on growing defence (and related) spending to 5% of GDP, that makes the three fastest growing components of federal spending as defence, interest payments and OAS. They are all in competition. And only two of them can be cut without serious economic consequences.
"5%" is a political fad, created in part by people who are just looking for some way to flip a middle digit to Trump by pretending they're going to spend a lot of borrowed money to reduce their involvement with the US. Their bluff is going to be called by their own taxpayers and their own appetites for other spending. In Canada, people reaching for it are going to look greedy, and end up losing almost all the recent gains; we can pretty much depend on there being some sort of eventual backlash from the ploughshares factions. People who settle for "2%" and work within that envelope on a coherent whole rather than a slap-dash of whatever was shovel-ready are going to look reasonable and prudent and have some hope of retaining that improvement.

A lot of money can be saved by simply emptying a large number of small rice bowls.
 
Looking at this table eligibility for OAS is going to peak in around 35 years and then decline, there is going to be a bump in about 5 years, flatten for 15 and then start to the peak after that.

What happens to the economy and rest of the federal budgetin the meantime? Cause the question here is one of carrying costs. OAS keeps growing. Not just in absolute dollars. But in relative proportion to both the federal budget and GDP. We're already at the point where OAS is greater than Defence (though probably to par in coming years). And it's now a question of which one will grow faster.

2025-2026 Budget

OAS/Elderly Benefits: $83.1B
Defence including DND, CAF, VA, CCG: $63B
 
If we've got billions, to hand out willy nilly, for foreign aid, we have money for OAS. It all about priorities.
 
If we've got billions, to hand out willy nilly, for foreign aid, we have money for OAS. It all about priorities.
Except we don’t, we are financing it through our children’s future.

Explain to me why you think seniors making well above national average income should receive welfare, I am genuinely curious as to why anyone would believe they deserve a handout.
 
Most people would find it absurd if we suggested that anybody making six figures should get cheques of several hundred per month from the government. But suddenly when they turn 65, it's a defensible idea?

Even the six figure threshold is absurd. But I guess we gotta start somewhere. I don't think anybody twice the poverty line/LICO should get OAS. And GIS should be expanded to top poor seniors up till LICO. I'd be excluded. I'm okay with that.
 
Most people would find it absurd if we suggested that anybody making six figures should get cheques of several hundred per month from the government. But suddenly when they turn 65, it's a defensible idea?

Even the six figure threshold is absurd. But I guess we gotta start somewhere. I don't think anybody twice the poverty line/LICO should get OAS. And GIS should be expanded to top poor seniors up till LICO. I'd be excluded. I'm okay with that.
As long as you realize that the last checks to go out the door before any government collapses into complete and total anarchy, mad max style, will be OAS checks.

In other words, Canadians will let the entire system burn to the ground before they touch that.
 
Except we don’t, we are financing it through our children’s future.

Explain to me why you think seniors making well above national average income should receive welfare, I am genuinely curious as to why anyone would believe they deserve a handout.
Because like health care, it’s the one and only other thing where we are mostly treated all the same.

And these seniors are making an income above the national average because they lived within their means and invested prudently.
With CPP only covering 25% of the gross income of the national average, it’s their pension and/or their savings that are putting them at this level.

Out of curiosity, what do you think the average pension for a newly retired firefighter in Ontario is?
Answer - ranges between 72-86k a year. Factor in a CPP at about 13-14k a year and voila, before OAS they are over the OAS clawback level. Are those individuals not good enough to receive OAS? What about the retired Nurse? Paramedic? It’s not all ‘rich people’ like it’s seen to be on here.
 
Most people would find it absurd if we suggested that anybody making six figures should get cheques of several hundred per month from the government. But suddenly when they turn 65, it's a defensible idea?

Even the six figure threshold is absurd. But I guess we gotta start somewhere. I don't think anybody twice the poverty line/LICO should get OAS. And GIS should be expanded to top poor seniors up till LICO. I'd be excluded. I'm okay with that.
The 100k is a joke. The ‘sunshine list’ in Ontario reports on those making over 100k grows and grows yearly because they’ve not increased the amount for 25+yrs! The real amount should be 200k or higher now.
A teacher with 15+yes experience and an extra accreditation makes over 100k now.
 
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